3 UNIT PLAYS
Boston/ Cleveland Over 178: Boston's low scoring home games have been well documented by me this year, but it has been a slightly different story when they have taken to the road. Out on the road the Celts have averaged 93.9 ppg, compared to around 88 ppg at home, while the have allowed 96.9 ppg away from home, giving their road games an average of 190.8 ppg, which is 21 points higher than their home game average of 169.8 ppg. Big jump there. the Celts are still without Rondo, but Ray Allen is back and Germaine O'neal is listed as probable after Missing the the last 3 games, so that should help this offense get going vs a Cleveland team that has struggled at the defensive end this year. Cleveland comes in ranked 24th in scoring defense (97.1 ppg) and 26th in FG% defense (46.3%), while also allowing 98 ppg on 46.2% shooting at home. The have also allowed teams to hit 36.8% from long range at home and with Allen (57.1% this year) back for the C's that is good news. Cleveland has averaged 95.1 ppg at home an their home games have averaged 193.1 ppg. Boston just plays a different brand of ball on the road and with more of an uptempo game here we should see about 185 points put on the board.
POWER ANGLE PLAY
Detroit +9 over NEW YORK: Rough year for the Pistons, but after all the preseason hype the Knicks haven't been that great themselves. NY really has no identity right now and are having real issues scoring and shooting the ball as they have averaged 93.7 ppg (17th) on just 41.4% (29th) shooting this year.The 3-ball is an important part of the Knick offense, and while they did have a good showing vs the Heat the other night, they are still shooting at a 30.7 % clip for long range, which is 24th in the league. Having Carmelo miss this one again will not help their offense tonight. The Knicks have had some issues on defense as they have allowed 95.6 ppg (18th) on 44.9% shooting (20th), while also allowing teams to hit 38.9% from long range (29th). That defensive play should help the leagues worst offense get going in this one. Detroit has put up 85.6 ppg on the year, but they have scored 98 vs Miami and 94 vs Portland recently so they are capable of having a good game. The Pistons are also 14th in 3pt shooting (35.4%) and should have a good game vs this weak Knick long range defense. The Pistons have been very bad on the road this year, but the Knicks don't deserve to be 9 point faves over anyone this year and that has me expecting the pistons to keep this one close. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play on any road team off a DD divisional road loss if their opponent is off a road loss. This play is 28-7-2 and 9-0 in it's last 9 qualifying contests.
5 POINT TEASER--- Lakers -7.5 & New Jersey +14.5
OTHER PLAYS
2 UNIT PLAYS
Denver -1 over MEMPHIS: DENVER is 28-13 ATS versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=24 free throws/game over the last 2 seasons and 15-3 ATS in road games after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. Denver is having a good year and they have won their last 5 on the road. Memphis has lost 4 in a row and have averaged just 83 ppg during the losing streak. They just won't have enough offense to outscore the leagues top offense in this one.
Sacramento/ Golden State Over 199: GOLDEN STATE is 26-12 OVER in home games versus teams who are called for 21 or less fouls/game over the last 3 seasons, and 22-7 OVER in January games over the last 2 seasons.
BEST OF LUCK EVERYONE
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