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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: MLK Night Action - NBA
si1ly send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 1/16/2012 7:10:26 PM
'10-11 NBA:  90-67  (57.3%)  +19.90u
'10-11 NBA-P:  30-16  (65.2%)  +18.25u
'10-11 NCAAB:  8-1  (88.9%)  +7.90u
'10-11 NHL-P:  11-4  (73.3%)  +7.00u
'10-11 MLB:  97-66 (59.8%)  +31.61u
'10-11 MLB-P:  9-3 (75.0%)  +9.22u
'11-12 NCAAF:  16-21  (43.2%)  -7.40u
'11-12 NFL:  42-35-1  (54.5%)  +5.05u
'11-12 NCAAB:  5-1 (83.3%)  +3.90u
'11-12 NCAAF-P: 9-6 (60.0%)  +1.65u
'11-12 NFL-P:  5-4 (55.5%)  +0.60u

'11-12 NBA:  18-17 (52.6%)  +1.60u


8:05 EST - Minnesota Timberwolves -7 (120)

The Timberwolves are playing in a prime time game at home against a struggling Kings team.  Kevin Love is playing like the animal that he is (he was also just selected to the Olympic team today).  And the fans love Rubio.  I know the T-Wolves have a number of other injuries, but the fact that the oddsmakers set the line north of the key number of 7 to open tells me that a) this won't be a big factor and b) the Kings really suck!  The Kings have had their hat handed to them in two straight road games and are now playing their 3rd game in four nights.  I know Minnesota is in the same scenario, but they've been home for two days and are coming off the momentum of a really good defensive performance in Atlanta (they lost by 2 but held Atlanta to 41% shooting).  They've had a number of games against the NBA's elite that they took down to the wire including a 2 point loss to the Heat and a 4 point loss to Memphis.  They also put up 100 points against Chicago despite being on the third game of a back-to-back-to-back.  Their 4-8 record doesn't quite do them justice.  According to my relative point spread ratings Minnesota is 10th best in the NBA at +1.5.  Sacramento on the other hand is the 5th worst team in the NBA at -4.4.  Take the differential of -5.9 and throw in 4 points in Minnesota's favor for playing at home against a team on a long road trip and you get a true line of -10.  Sacramento's team is in shambles and I expect their downward spiral to continue tonight in front of a tough Minnesota crowd on prime time.  Minnesota by double digits.
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#2
Posted: 1/16/2012 7:10:35 PM
10:35 EST - Los Angeles Lakers -3.5 (-110)

Needless to say, Kobe has been carrying the Lakers this season.  He's had 4 straight games with 40 points and it's quite possible he gets 40 again tonight.  The Lakers - but Kobe in particular - is very good at getting there revenge.  I guarantee you that the Lakers haven't forgotten getting swept by Dallas in last years playoffs.  Kobe sure looks like he's been gearing up for tonight.  Revenge is definitely on the Lakers minds tonight.  Onto the metrics.  The Lakers are beastly on the boards.  Offensive rebounding rate tends to determine about 20% of the games outcome and this is where the Lakers excel.  They bring down the 5th highest rate of offensive boards in the league while holding opponents to the 3rd fewest.  What's even more important than ORR is eFG% and the Lakers again have a clear advantage (eFG% determines about 50% of the outcome of a game).  The Lakers have an offensive eFG% of 48.8 and they hold opponents to 44.6%.  This differential of 4.2 is the 4th best in the NBA.  The Mavericks on the other hand have a -1.3 eFG% differential (19th in the NBA).  The other two major predictors I look at are turnover rate and free throw rate.  The Mavericks are excellent at forcing steals and they have a huge advantage over the Lakers in this department.  However, the Lakers have an equally great advantage over the Mavericks in free throw rate.  Effectively these two stat categories cancel each other out.  All this boils down to the Lakers getting a relative point spread rating of +3.6 while the Mavericks are at -0.1.  Take the differential and you find that the Lakers are 3.5 points better than the Mavericks on a neutral site.  Well golly, that's where the spread stands as is!  I haven't even factored in home court and the revenge angle (for what it's worth, I'd give the Lakers another 4.5 point advantage over the Mavericks tonight).  I think a true spread for tonight's match-up is Lakers -8.  At -3.5, it's an easy decision to lay some coin on the Lakeshow at home.
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#3
Posted: 1/16/2012 7:18:05 PM
yehhhhh

lets go murdersoda and fakers...


I'm on it too silly head...

lets get this money funny. 
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#4
Posted: 1/16/2012 7:24:24 PM
I also really like the Lakers over.  High FTR and TOR should lead to points.  182 seems pretty low.
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#5
Posted: 1/16/2012 7:26:02 PM
I would love Kobe o30pts too if it wasn't -162 
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#6
Posted: 1/16/2012 7:29:43 PM
GL - I took both in a ML parlay. It pays even
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#7
Posted: 1/16/2012 7:34:23 PM
i too now think that the over is a much better bet.  I do not know what I was thinking "at the time" when I placed my under bet.  


With that said, I'm already on the under due to lakers and dallas both favoring most under games for them. 

lakers at home  3overs  6 unders
dallas away  2 overs  3 unders. 

I think the line is about right. 

lakers in the mid 90's and dallas around the 89-91 hash mark.  If dallas win SU, flip them numbers. 






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#8
Posted: 1/16/2012 7:34:25 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by timdogs17:

GL - I took both in a ML parlay. It pays even


I almost did the same thing. 
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#9
Posted: 1/16/2012 8:03:11 PM
Good luck guys
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#10
Posted: 1/16/2012 8:05:09 PM
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#11
Posted: 1/16/2012 8:07:36 PM

I missed the Minnesota game, but I'm on the Lakers with you si1ly. Although I got it at -4.

Let's go Minnesota & Lakers!!!

THANK YOU si1ly

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#12
Posted: 1/16/2012 8:50:57 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by VietBlonde:

I missed the Minnesota game, but I'm on the Lakers with you si1ly. Although I got it at -4.

Let's go Minnesota & Lakers!!!

THANK YOU si1ly



Lakers are a much stronger play by the numbers.  I really like the Lakers tonight 
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#13
Posted: 1/16/2012 8:52:12 PM
If you're record is accurate, solid work 
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#14
Posted: 1/16/2012 8:53:53 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Gardfather:

If you're record is accurate, solid work 


Total transparency here man.  Not trying to fool anybody.. just want to share information and help everyone beat the books!

Cheers right back atcha 
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#15
Posted: 1/16/2012 8:58:06 PM
I wasn't questioning, just complimenting! 
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#16
Posted: 1/16/2012 9:25:26 PM
Los Angeles Lakers
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#17
Posted: 1/16/2012 10:12:44 PM
I think we see today that the mavs weak competition made them look good. I think Kobe's revenge anger and Gasol trying to make up for him costing them the series last year will bring the cover. Odom will want revenge too for the trade but it won't compare to Kobe's and Gasol's will.
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#18
Posted: 1/16/2012 10:16:21 PM
On the Lakers 
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#19
Posted: 1/16/2012 10:18:25 PM
8:05 EST - Minnesota Timberwolves -7 (120) 

Minnesota was asleep in the first half but they sure poured it on in the second.  If you doubt Kevin Love as an elite NBA player take a look at his +22 +/- stat tonight.  The guy is a winner.  Lakers pending.


'11-12 NBA:  19-17 (52.8%)  +2.60u


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#20
Posted: 1/16/2012 10:30:51 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by theIntrospect:

I think we see today that the mavs weak competition made them look good. I think Kobe's revenge anger and Gasol trying to make up for him costing them the series last year will bring the cover. Odom will want revenge too for the trade but it won't compare to Kobe's and Gasol's will.


Agreed.  Revenge is one of the biggest intangible angles in basketball handicapping.  Given that the Mavs just blew out their competition in recent games and the fact that they're defending champs prevented oddsmakers from setting the line where it really should be at around Lakers -7.  No way could they have done that - but after this game we'll be saying they should have.


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#21
Posted: 1/16/2012 10:40:19 PM
Was not pretty with mn as they were trailing due to that spread but thank goodness for them and their 4th quarter and less than 5 minutes left push for our sides to cash.

Another productive day silly head. 

Lets get this lakers money as well.   Scare money makes no money...

Cap for tomorrow.  I like to see your writings on it.  I will be on it too. 
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#22
Posted: 1/16/2012 11:30:24 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nfl_brosuf:

Was not pretty with mn as they were trailing due to that spread but thank goodness for them and their 4th quarter and less than 5 minutes left push for our sides to cash.

Another productive day silly head. 

Lets get this lakers money as well.   Scare money makes no money...

Cap for tomorrow.  I like to see your writings on it.  I will be on it too. 


As of right now San Antonio +7.5 looks like the best bet on the board (true line on this game is MIA -4.5).  Orlando should destroy Charlotte too.  My point spread ratings suggest Orlando wins by 15.  Not a big fan of laying double digits though.


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#23
Posted: 1/16/2012 11:36:16 PM
Parlay Lakers and the over in the second half 
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#24
Posted: 1/16/2012 11:42:53 PM
LAkers 1.5    90

DO you think it gonna over ?
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#25
Posted: 1/16/2012 11:46:34 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mrbig69:

LAkers 1.5    90

DO you think it gonna over ?


I thought the full game over would cash at 182!  Both these teams get to the line a lot and force turnovers.  Both of these stats favor overs.  A second half total of 90 gives you an adjusted full game at 164.  That's quite generous.  I would take over 164 every time.

That being said, I like the Lakers more than anything.. I think they run away and hide with this game.  If you're just looking for a straight wager, take the Lakers 2h -1.5.


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