Posted:
#1
Nice win the other night on the Cavs @ Jazz over using some old fashioned technical handicapping. Will continue to grind these out over the course of the year with long term math and trending gets it done in the NBA.
Tonight we look at the Pistons at Bucks game in Milwaukee. This game has "house game" written all over it as Detroit has looked very bad in their last few games and the Bucks are coming off a SU win over the Spurs last time out.
It is in our technical capping' versus the recent public perception that gives us the line value. At the time of this post, the public was backing the buck at almost a 4:1 ratio. The line opened at Bucks -8, and despite the action squarely on Milwaukee the line has stayed stagnant. Also important to note, at this time this game is the most heavily bet NBA game on the board (so we know this line is not beng ignored by the books....they have a big stake in this one.)
My analysis says the public is backing the wrong horse in this one. The books know what I know, but they are certainly happy to be booking Milwaukee bets as their "non-line move" has shown.
Here is the dig... though Detroit has looked bad the past few games, visiting the Bradley Center is probably the best thing for them. The Pistons have not only covered 9 of their last 10 here... but have won SU 9 of the last 10. (14 of the last 19 SU to the Pistons overall)... In the last 4 meetings in Milwaukee, the Pistons have never won SU by less then 9 points.
The Bucks are on the first half of a B2B that wil see them go to Dallas tonight after the game for a match-up with the Mavs. The Pistons are in the middle of a 3 in 3.
Tonight play the Pistons +8 at their home away from home!
Good Luck!
0
cant decide which side to play
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