2010-2011 NBA Playoffs Record: 16 - 14 @53%for+0.6 Units
Thur 05/06
#1: Chicago Bulls -2.5
Researching
this game I couldn't help and read various quotes from ATL players and
coaches claiming how confident they are for this game tonight due to
'taking Bulls' best shot' and almost winning both games in Chicago.
Sure, the Bulls were up 6 points in the 4th quarter of game 2 with 4
minutes left, but was that game really in any doubt? More importantly, I
don't think Chicago came close to playing their 'best' ball yet. "We
feel like we took their best punch." - said Jamal Crawford. Really?
Unless I'm missing something, Bulls didn't play much better in game 2
than they did in game 1. The difference in the 2nd game was that
Atlanta actually regressed to their 'normal' level of playing, while the
Bulls went back to dominating the boards and making 'hustle' plays,
something they've done most of this season. The reality is that Bulls
haven't started 'punching' yet Mr. Crawford. And when they do, well, we
might see a performance similar to the 114-81 shellacking the Bulls put
on the Hawks on this same same court during the regular season.
Atlanta
is only 19-25 ATS at home this season while the Bulls are 26-17 ATS on
the road. I don't see Atlanta having a great 'home-court' advantage in
this one as I expect Chicago to win game 3 by a comfortable margin.
#2: Dallas Mavericks -2
I'm
impressed. I knew Dallas was good (heck I predicted Dallas / Chicago
final earlier this season prior to changing my mind late) but I didn't
know they were THIS good. This team is for real. They have size,
depth, and a super-star that is just playing excellent 'ball' right now.
What I find interesting though, is that 65%+ of the public are on the
Lakers tonight. This is coming after game 2, where 65%+ were backing
Dallas. Hmmm... The public is usually very reactionary to just a game
or 2 that they see recently, but it's not the case here. Are they
expecting the Champs to bounce-back? Is the 'zig-zag' theory applied?
I'm not sure, but I'm definitely surprised here. Either way, I'm going
to be 'square' on this one.
Bottom line is that I see one team
in LA that is completely overmatched in this series. I was surprised to
see LA give up a 16 point lead in game 1, and thought that Lakers would
win game 2 easily...I was wrong. Lakers are slower, have no depth on
their bench, and, I can't believe I"m saying this, look out-coached out
there. Where are the adjustments? How do you let Barea continuously
drive on you and get easy layups and/or quality looks for his teammates?
Maybe the coaching is there, but the execution is just lacking. Either
way, from what I saw in the first 2 games of the series, I'm not sure
if LA can win a game unless Dallas 'gives it away'. Some will say that
LA's 3PT shooting was an anomaly in game 2 and with improved % there,
they can win. Sure, maybe. But then again, Dallas had an EFG% of 47%
in game 2, way below their 53% EFG% during the regular season. What
will happen when they shoot better from the floor (as most teams do on
their own home-court)? Some people might say that Artest getting
suspended is a good thing for this Lakers team. Really? This team
already has no bench, and now with Artest out, I'm assuming Barnes is
going to start with possibly Walton playing more minutes off the bench.
Artest was horrible in the first 2 games so maybe Barnes will play a
bit better, but missing another body from an already 'depleted' bench is
not a good thing.
I know this is a 'must-win' game for the
Lakers but I'll back a better team in this one. Dallas is 8-0 ATS in
these playoffs and I won't go against 'perfection' again.
2010-2011 NBA Playoffs Record: 16 - 14 @53%for+0.6 Units
Thur 05/06
#1: Chicago Bulls -2.5
Researching
this game I couldn't help and read various quotes from ATL players and
coaches claiming how confident they are for this game tonight due to
'taking Bulls' best shot' and almost winning both games in Chicago.
Sure, the Bulls were up 6 points in the 4th quarter of game 2 with 4
minutes left, but was that game really in any doubt? More importantly, I
don't think Chicago came close to playing their 'best' ball yet. "We
feel like we took their best punch." - said Jamal Crawford. Really?
Unless I'm missing something, Bulls didn't play much better in game 2
than they did in game 1. The difference in the 2nd game was that
Atlanta actually regressed to their 'normal' level of playing, while the
Bulls went back to dominating the boards and making 'hustle' plays,
something they've done most of this season. The reality is that Bulls
haven't started 'punching' yet Mr. Crawford. And when they do, well, we
might see a performance similar to the 114-81 shellacking the Bulls put
on the Hawks on this same same court during the regular season.
Atlanta
is only 19-25 ATS at home this season while the Bulls are 26-17 ATS on
the road. I don't see Atlanta having a great 'home-court' advantage in
this one as I expect Chicago to win game 3 by a comfortable margin.
#2: Dallas Mavericks -2
I'm
impressed. I knew Dallas was good (heck I predicted Dallas / Chicago
final earlier this season prior to changing my mind late) but I didn't
know they were THIS good. This team is for real. They have size,
depth, and a super-star that is just playing excellent 'ball' right now.
What I find interesting though, is that 65%+ of the public are on the
Lakers tonight. This is coming after game 2, where 65%+ were backing
Dallas. Hmmm... The public is usually very reactionary to just a game
or 2 that they see recently, but it's not the case here. Are they
expecting the Champs to bounce-back? Is the 'zig-zag' theory applied?
I'm not sure, but I'm definitely surprised here. Either way, I'm going
to be 'square' on this one.
Bottom line is that I see one team
in LA that is completely overmatched in this series. I was surprised to
see LA give up a 16 point lead in game 1, and thought that Lakers would
win game 2 easily...I was wrong. Lakers are slower, have no depth on
their bench, and, I can't believe I"m saying this, look out-coached out
there. Where are the adjustments? How do you let Barea continuously
drive on you and get easy layups and/or quality looks for his teammates?
Maybe the coaching is there, but the execution is just lacking. Either
way, from what I saw in the first 2 games of the series, I'm not sure
if LA can win a game unless Dallas 'gives it away'. Some will say that
LA's 3PT shooting was an anomaly in game 2 and with improved % there,
they can win. Sure, maybe. But then again, Dallas had an EFG% of 47%
in game 2, way below their 53% EFG% during the regular season. What
will happen when they shoot better from the floor (as most teams do on
their own home-court)? Some people might say that Artest getting
suspended is a good thing for this Lakers team. Really? This team
already has no bench, and now with Artest out, I'm assuming Barnes is
going to start with possibly Walton playing more minutes off the bench.
Artest was horrible in the first 2 games so maybe Barnes will play a
bit better, but missing another body from an already 'depleted' bench is
not a good thing.
I know this is a 'must-win' game for the
Lakers but I'll back a better team in this one. Dallas is 8-0 ATS in
these playoffs and I won't go against 'perfection' again.
A team that starts out a series up 2-0 has a 94% chance of winning it: 219-14 (94%) all-time A team that starts out a series up 2-0 in ROUND 2 has a 95% chance of winning it: 94-5 (95%) all-time in Round 2 Keep in mind that Dallas is up 2-0 and going HOME for the next 2 and 3 of the next 4 (if needed).
At -280 odds, the oddsmakers are giving Dallas 74% chance of winning the series. (I guess Lakers still have some respect). For comparison purposes, Bulls being tied 1-1 and going on the road, are at -420 to win their series, or 81%.
The math just doesn't add up. You know what odds equal 94% winning percentage? -1500 So we have an opportunity to wager on a bet at -280 odds that historically should be -1500?
I'm not a math genius per say, but where do I sign up??
(I'm betting 3x my normal bet amount on this one FYI)
_________________ '10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130 '10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600 '10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800 '10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400 '10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400 '10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200 '10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400
-------------------------------------------------------------- 'TOTAL: 200-136 @ 60% for +$52,330
"A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned."
A team that starts out a series up 2-0 has a 94% chance of winning it: 219-14 (94%) all-time A team that starts out a series up 2-0 in ROUND 2 has a 95% chance of winning it: 94-5 (95%) all-time in Round 2 Keep in mind that Dallas is up 2-0 and going HOME for the next 2 and 3 of the next 4 (if needed).
At -280 odds, the oddsmakers are giving Dallas 74% chance of winning the series. (I guess Lakers still have some respect). For comparison purposes, Bulls being tied 1-1 and going on the road, are at -420 to win their series, or 81%.
The math just doesn't add up. You know what odds equal 94% winning percentage? -1500 So we have an opportunity to wager on a bet at -280 odds that historically should be -1500?
I'm not a math genius per say, but where do I sign up??
(I'm betting 3x my normal bet amount on this one FYI)
_________________ '10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130 '10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600 '10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800 '10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400 '10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400 '10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200 '10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400
-------------------------------------------------------------- 'TOTAL: 200-136 @ 60% for +$52,330
"A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned."
I have watched a few Knick teams go up 2-0 to the Bulls in the Hay Dayz, and the Bulls would always comeback and beat us. Now, we would win those 2 games at home, kinda like Miami has this year. Dallas won these on the road so it makes it a really tough up hill climb for LA. I would not bet against the champs here. Would Not. Kobe's backs are against the wall, and they are going to fight like rabid, hungry, starved, sleep deprived, animals. Just my 2 cents...
I have watched a few Knick teams go up 2-0 to the Bulls in the Hay Dayz, and the Bulls would always comeback and beat us. Now, we would win those 2 games at home, kinda like Miami has this year. Dallas won these on the road so it makes it a really tough up hill climb for LA. I would not bet against the champs here. Would Not. Kobe's backs are against the wall, and they are going to fight like rabid, hungry, starved, sleep deprived, animals. Just my 2 cents...
I have watched a few Knick teams go up 2-0 to the Bulls in the Hay Dayz, and the Bulls would always comeback and beat us. Now, we would win those 2 games at home, kinda like Miami has this year. Dallas won these on the road so it makes it a really tough up hill climb for LA. I would not bet against the champs here. Would Not. Kobe's backs are against the wall, and they are going to fight like rabid, hungry, starved, sleep deprived, animals. Just my 2 cents...
I thought they already did that in game 2. They just ran out of source. You could clearly see them get frustrated 'cause deep down, they knew they were getting outplayed. You can be starved, hungry, and extra motivated but I don't see how that can help a team when they are simply out-matched.
Not to mention, the Mavs are well aware of being up 2-0 and having it slip away. Not going to let it happen again.
I have watched a few Knick teams go up 2-0 to the Bulls in the Hay Dayz, and the Bulls would always comeback and beat us. Now, we would win those 2 games at home, kinda like Miami has this year. Dallas won these on the road so it makes it a really tough up hill climb for LA. I would not bet against the champs here. Would Not. Kobe's backs are against the wall, and they are going to fight like rabid, hungry, starved, sleep deprived, animals. Just my 2 cents...
I thought they already did that in game 2. They just ran out of source. You could clearly see them get frustrated 'cause deep down, they knew they were getting outplayed. You can be starved, hungry, and extra motivated but I don't see how that can help a team when they are simply out-matched.
Not to mention, the Mavs are well aware of being up 2-0 and having it slip away. Not going to let it happen again.
GL Bodio, I love the Bulls but I gotta believe the Lakers and "the NBA" for that matter are gonna try to make a series of this one. Gonna be no play or the Lakers for me. Any total leans?
GL Bodio, I love the Bulls but I gotta believe the Lakers and "the NBA" for that matter are gonna try to make a series of this one. Gonna be no play or the Lakers for me. Any total leans?
I have watched a few Knick teams go up 2-0 to the Bulls in the Hay Dayz, and the Bulls would always comeback and beat us. Now, we would win those 2 games at home, kinda like Miami has this year. Dallas won these on the road so it makes it a really tough up hill climb for LA. I would not bet against the champs here. Would Not. Kobe's backs are against the wall, and they are going to fight like rabid, hungry, starved, sleep deprived, animals.
That's amusing. I don't see that kind of fight in this dog anymore. What makes you think it's still there, Barbosa212?
I have watched a few Knick teams go up 2-0 to the Bulls in the Hay Dayz, and the Bulls would always comeback and beat us. Now, we would win those 2 games at home, kinda like Miami has this year. Dallas won these on the road so it makes it a really tough up hill climb for LA. I would not bet against the champs here. Would Not. Kobe's backs are against the wall, and they are going to fight like rabid, hungry, starved, sleep deprived, animals.
That's amusing. I don't see that kind of fight in this dog anymore. What makes you think it's still there, Barbosa212?
That's amusing. I don't see that kind of fight in this dog anymore. What makes you think it's still there, Barbosa212?
All I'm saying is backs up against the wall, I am not putting my $$$ against Kobe and Phil. Not guna do it. I am talking about game 3, not the series here guys. Artest out is actually a good thing for Hell-LA, that Queens boy is so bad at offense, it is scary at times, and Dirk was making him look like a fool on the Defensive end anyway!! Watch LA win this game
That's amusing. I don't see that kind of fight in this dog anymore. What makes you think it's still there, Barbosa212?
All I'm saying is backs up against the wall, I am not putting my $$$ against Kobe and Phil. Not guna do it. I am talking about game 3, not the series here guys. Artest out is actually a good thing for Hell-LA, that Queens boy is so bad at offense, it is scary at times, and Dirk was making him look like a fool on the Defensive end anyway!! Watch LA win this game
To anyone unsure if Dallas can get the W tonight, just play the Team Total over 94. I think this is a number Dallas can hit at home even if they lose! BOL
To anyone unsure if Dallas can get the W tonight, just play the Team Total over 94. I think this is a number Dallas can hit at home even if they lose! BOL
All I'm saying is backs up against the wall, I am not putting my $$$ against Kobe and Phil. Not guna do it.
Ah, the mystique of Kobe and Phil. They've done some great things together - in the past - but as for this season, I think they'll be remembered for being the leaders of the first Lakers team in 34 years to lose the first two games of a series at home.
All I'm saying is backs up against the wall, I am not putting my $$$ against Kobe and Phil. Not guna do it.
Ah, the mystique of Kobe and Phil. They've done some great things together - in the past - but as for this season, I think they'll be remembered for being the leaders of the first Lakers team in 34 years to lose the first two games of a series at home.
Bodio, I was a bit surprised to see you on the Mavs tonight. I keep thinking that L.A. has to win one game and game three seems like the best chance they have, add in the fact that the NBA needs the big two teams, Celts and Lakers, to push some ratings, then this is the perfect spot to back L.A. I cannot see them being swept.
Bodio, I was a bit surprised to see you on the Mavs tonight. I keep thinking that L.A. has to win one game and game three seems like the best chance they have, add in the fact that the NBA needs the big two teams, Celts and Lakers, to push some ratings, then this is the perfect spot to back L.A. I cannot see them being swept.
Ah, the mystique of Kobe and Phil. They've done some great things together - in the past - but as for this season, I think they'll be remembered for being the leaders of the first Lakers team in 34 years to lose the first two games of a series at home.
First team in 34 years, to lose the first 2 games at home and comeback to win the series.
Ah, the mystique of Kobe and Phil. They've done some great things together - in the past - but as for this season, I think they'll be remembered for being the leaders of the first Lakers team in 34 years to lose the first two games of a series at home.
First team in 34 years, to lose the first 2 games at home and comeback to win the series.
the 'fake-show' is over my friends. dallas is way too athletic across the board for kobe & co. to hang. BIG D will be rocking tonight. love both plays bo. let's do this!
the 'fake-show' is over my friends. dallas is way too athletic across the board for kobe & co. to hang. BIG D will be rocking tonight. love both plays bo. let's do this!
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