Posted:
#1
2010-2011 NBA Record:
107 - 73 @ 59% for +26.7 Units
Thur, 03/10
Miami Heat +2.5
"This is the NBA: No Boys Allowed. Big boys don't cry. But, if you're going to do it, do it in the toilet where no one can see." – Phil Jackson on Heat players crying after Bulls loss.
Seeing and hearing this yesterday I couldn't believe it. An ego-maniac like Phil Jackson talking smack about ANOTHER NBA team. I guess winning 10 championships allows you to pretty much do and say whatever you want, but I was a bit surprised he was saying this about a team that the Lakers are about to play. "No boys allowed" - BURN! "Big boys don't cry" - DOUBLE BURN! “(Cry) in the toilet where no one can see you" - WOW! Watching Phil's smug face as he was saying this, got me riled up yesterday, and I hate MIAMI (from a fan's perspective). If it 'ticked' me off, how do you think the Miami players feel? Honestly, if LeWade and Company don't 'get up' for this one, I think this team just needs to give up trying the rest of the season. I see this as the BIGGEST statement game of the year for them. Remember, how prior to Heat playing Orlando in the 3rd meeting of the season, LeBron specifically talked about the fact that he remembers what "Ron Jeremy" and the Orlando organization have been saying about him and Miami post 'The Decision'. He played with an 'edge' in that game, scoring 51 points, grabbing 11 rebounds, and dishing out 8 assists. Do I expect a similar effort tonight? Absolutely!
Alright, enough with the 'fluff' reasoning, and let's get to some 'tangible' analysis here. There is tremendous ‘line-value’ in this game. Earlier this season, when Heat played @ LA, Lakers were -3.5 point favorites. With ‘standard adjustment’, they should be +2.5 point dogs on the road. Well, they’re -2.5 road favorites in this case. Did the Lakers really improve and/or Miami regress a full 5 points, since that Dec 25th meeting? Of course not, but here’s where public perception played a big part. The public has been lining up all season long to back the HEAT this year. No matter what the circumstance, majority of bets would be on Miami, especially when they played at home. 5 point favorites against a solid Bulls team? No problem, the public pounds Miami. 8.5 point favorites against a really good Blazers team? “Can you make it a nice even number like 9 please” – was the public’s response, as again 65%+ were on the Heat. But guess what? All of a sudden, the public completely abandoned Miami. Why? Because they’re playing the big, bad Lakers, who are seeking ‘revenge’ and have won 8 straight games. All of a sudden, only 17% are backing the Heat, while 83% of all the bets are on the LakeShow. WOW! First time all season long that Miami are ‘dogs’ at home and all of a sudden they’re not getting any public love. Lakers are ‘hot’, Heat are ‘not’! Lakers won 8 in a row, Heat lost 5 consecutive games. Lakers are ‘tough guys’, Miami are ‘cry-babies’… Phil’s words, not mine! ? Well, in this instance I’m going to back the ‘cold’ team full of ‘cry-babies’ and fade the ‘hot’ one. No way, should Miami be getting +2.5 points at home against anyone, even the Lakers. In my opinion, the books were forced to raise this # way too high and still everyone was betting the Lakers…until this morning that is. All of a sudden, it started dropping. First went to +2, then +1.5, and now sits at +1….Hmmmm… Some serious ‘Reverse Line Movement’ in this one! Are the ‘sharps’ pounding Miami? Did the ‘sharps’ set up the ‘middle’ by betting on the Lakers when the early # came out? Who knows? Possibly. I don’t know this because unlike a number of handicappers that claim to have a ton of contacts in ‘Vegas’, I have none. What I do know is that Miami +2.5 holds tremendous ‘value’, and being sharp is all about taking ‘value’ bets. In the long-run, ‘Sharp players’, ‘Wiseguys’, ‘Big Money’ (whatever else you want to call them), always come out ahead because they are able to calculate ‘value’ efficiently and are not afraid to make bets when the right situation presents itself. I strongly feel that we have this situation today. Even at +1, the Heat are providing almost 4 points of ‘value’ based on my model. At +2.5, I have almost 5.5 points of ‘value’. As bad as Miami is playing right now, I just can’t pass this up.
107 - 73 @ 59% for +26.7 Units
Thur, 03/10
Miami Heat +2.5
"This is the NBA: No Boys Allowed. Big boys don't cry. But, if you're going to do it, do it in the toilet where no one can see." – Phil Jackson on Heat players crying after Bulls loss.
Seeing and hearing this yesterday I couldn't believe it. An ego-maniac like Phil Jackson talking smack about ANOTHER NBA team. I guess winning 10 championships allows you to pretty much do and say whatever you want, but I was a bit surprised he was saying this about a team that the Lakers are about to play. "No boys allowed" - BURN! "Big boys don't cry" - DOUBLE BURN! “(Cry) in the toilet where no one can see you" - WOW! Watching Phil's smug face as he was saying this, got me riled up yesterday, and I hate MIAMI (from a fan's perspective). If it 'ticked' me off, how do you think the Miami players feel? Honestly, if LeWade and Company don't 'get up' for this one, I think this team just needs to give up trying the rest of the season. I see this as the BIGGEST statement game of the year for them. Remember, how prior to Heat playing Orlando in the 3rd meeting of the season, LeBron specifically talked about the fact that he remembers what "Ron Jeremy" and the Orlando organization have been saying about him and Miami post 'The Decision'. He played with an 'edge' in that game, scoring 51 points, grabbing 11 rebounds, and dishing out 8 assists. Do I expect a similar effort tonight? Absolutely!
Alright, enough with the 'fluff' reasoning, and let's get to some 'tangible' analysis here. There is tremendous ‘line-value’ in this game. Earlier this season, when Heat played @ LA, Lakers were -3.5 point favorites. With ‘standard adjustment’, they should be +2.5 point dogs on the road. Well, they’re -2.5 road favorites in this case. Did the Lakers really improve and/or Miami regress a full 5 points, since that Dec 25th meeting? Of course not, but here’s where public perception played a big part. The public has been lining up all season long to back the HEAT this year. No matter what the circumstance, majority of bets would be on Miami, especially when they played at home. 5 point favorites against a solid Bulls team? No problem, the public pounds Miami. 8.5 point favorites against a really good Blazers team? “Can you make it a nice even number like 9 please” – was the public’s response, as again 65%+ were on the Heat. But guess what? All of a sudden, the public completely abandoned Miami. Why? Because they’re playing the big, bad Lakers, who are seeking ‘revenge’ and have won 8 straight games. All of a sudden, only 17% are backing the Heat, while 83% of all the bets are on the LakeShow. WOW! First time all season long that Miami are ‘dogs’ at home and all of a sudden they’re not getting any public love. Lakers are ‘hot’, Heat are ‘not’! Lakers won 8 in a row, Heat lost 5 consecutive games. Lakers are ‘tough guys’, Miami are ‘cry-babies’… Phil’s words, not mine! ? Well, in this instance I’m going to back the ‘cold’ team full of ‘cry-babies’ and fade the ‘hot’ one. No way, should Miami be getting +2.5 points at home against anyone, even the Lakers. In my opinion, the books were forced to raise this # way too high and still everyone was betting the Lakers…until this morning that is. All of a sudden, it started dropping. First went to +2, then +1.5, and now sits at +1….Hmmmm… Some serious ‘Reverse Line Movement’ in this one! Are the ‘sharps’ pounding Miami? Did the ‘sharps’ set up the ‘middle’ by betting on the Lakers when the early # came out? Who knows? Possibly. I don’t know this because unlike a number of handicappers that claim to have a ton of contacts in ‘Vegas’, I have none. What I do know is that Miami +2.5 holds tremendous ‘value’, and being sharp is all about taking ‘value’ bets. In the long-run, ‘Sharp players’, ‘Wiseguys’, ‘Big Money’ (whatever else you want to call them), always come out ahead because they are able to calculate ‘value’ efficiently and are not afraid to make bets when the right situation presents itself. I strongly feel that we have this situation today. Even at +1, the Heat are providing almost 4 points of ‘value’ based on my model. At +2.5, I have almost 5.5 points of ‘value’. As bad as Miami is playing right now, I just can’t pass this up.
0
sorry i have ADD.
NEVER BET AGINST THE STREAKS !
Thank you for sharing 
Hot Forum Topics
