Posted:
#1
2010-2011 NBA Record:
72 - 54 @ 57% for +12.6 Units
Sat 02/05
Milwaukee Bucks -5.5
'Revenge' game for the Bucks who got spanked by Detroit earlier this year 103-89 on their own home-court. In that game, the Bucks were -1 point road favorites. 'Standard adjustment' would have them as -7 point favorites in this one today so at -5.5 we're getting 1.5 points of 'value'. Looking at that first game, Detroit shot 56% from the field and 50% from the 3PT line. It was one of their best 'offensive' performances of the season. Interestingly, Richard Hamilton and Rodney Stuckey combined to go 13 for 21 from the field (62%) for 33 points, 16 assists, and 7 rebounds. You could say that they accounted for about 65% of the Pistons' points in that first game. Well, neither one will be playing tonight. (I'm assuming Stuckey will be out again) Even if Stuckey plays, I don't see Detroit shooting 56% from the field against the Bucks again. Milwaukee has one of the best defenses at home, holding opponents to 90 ppg on 43% shooting. They are 3-1 in their last 4 home games, allowing 88 points per game. I expect the D to make an effort to shut-down Detroit's offense tonight. As well as Detroit shot the ball in that first game between the 2 squads, Milwaukee was the complete opposite, shooting 38% from the field and 14% from 3PT line (one of their worst performances of the season). Again, I just don't see that happening again tonight. Detroit's D has been very mediocre, allowing 100 ppg and 48% from the field in the last 5 games. In addition, Bogut did not play in that first meeting between the 2 clubs. I know he's listed as questionable, but I expect him to suit up tonight. (Even if he doesn't, this is still a play on Milwaukee). None of the Pistons' defenders can match-up with him in the post - big advantage for the Bucks here. One last thing I want to point out about that first game: the Bucks shot the ball 15 more times than Detroit, attempted 9 more FT's, had 21 offensive rebounds, and 9 less turnovers. It's obvious they lost the game because of the unusual FG% discrepancy, but looking at the overall #'s, you could argue that the Bucks were the more dominant team in that one. In any case, I expect Milwaukee to get their revenge tonight.
Additionally, there are a number of other factors that favor Milwaukee here:
i) Pistons are playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, and 2nd of a b2b. The Pistons are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games in the 2nd of a b2b scenario. This team just does not perform well when they're not rested, and a lot of that has to do due to lack of depth.
ii) Bucks are 7-3 ATS on a 1 day rest. Obviously, Milwaukee performs much better when they have a day off in between games. So Pistons are pretty awful without rest, while Bucks are pretty good when rested...I like the way this is shaping up even more now.
iii) Bucks are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games, following a SU loss. This team really tries to improve their peformance following a loss, and this situation won't be any different. They're playing at home, coming off a loss at GSW, and facing a team that beat them already this year. I like them to really put forth max effort in this one.
iv) Health. Jennings has been back for a few games now. Salmons has played a few after his injury. Bogut will be back in this one (hopefully). All these guys are going to continue playing better and better, the more games they get 'under their belt'. I expect Salmons and Jennings to improve their performance in this one tonight.
Bucks are 5-2 ATS at home in their last 7 games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 as a favorite. I expect them to play well at home tonight, contain this 'tired' Pistons team defensively, and get a comfortable double-digit win in this one.
Good luck!
72 - 54 @ 57% for +12.6 Units
Sat 02/05
Milwaukee Bucks -5.5
'Revenge' game for the Bucks who got spanked by Detroit earlier this year 103-89 on their own home-court. In that game, the Bucks were -1 point road favorites. 'Standard adjustment' would have them as -7 point favorites in this one today so at -5.5 we're getting 1.5 points of 'value'. Looking at that first game, Detroit shot 56% from the field and 50% from the 3PT line. It was one of their best 'offensive' performances of the season. Interestingly, Richard Hamilton and Rodney Stuckey combined to go 13 for 21 from the field (62%) for 33 points, 16 assists, and 7 rebounds. You could say that they accounted for about 65% of the Pistons' points in that first game. Well, neither one will be playing tonight. (I'm assuming Stuckey will be out again) Even if Stuckey plays, I don't see Detroit shooting 56% from the field against the Bucks again. Milwaukee has one of the best defenses at home, holding opponents to 90 ppg on 43% shooting. They are 3-1 in their last 4 home games, allowing 88 points per game. I expect the D to make an effort to shut-down Detroit's offense tonight. As well as Detroit shot the ball in that first game between the 2 squads, Milwaukee was the complete opposite, shooting 38% from the field and 14% from 3PT line (one of their worst performances of the season). Again, I just don't see that happening again tonight. Detroit's D has been very mediocre, allowing 100 ppg and 48% from the field in the last 5 games. In addition, Bogut did not play in that first meeting between the 2 clubs. I know he's listed as questionable, but I expect him to suit up tonight. (Even if he doesn't, this is still a play on Milwaukee). None of the Pistons' defenders can match-up with him in the post - big advantage for the Bucks here. One last thing I want to point out about that first game: the Bucks shot the ball 15 more times than Detroit, attempted 9 more FT's, had 21 offensive rebounds, and 9 less turnovers. It's obvious they lost the game because of the unusual FG% discrepancy, but looking at the overall #'s, you could argue that the Bucks were the more dominant team in that one. In any case, I expect Milwaukee to get their revenge tonight.
Additionally, there are a number of other factors that favor Milwaukee here:
i) Pistons are playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, and 2nd of a b2b. The Pistons are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games in the 2nd of a b2b scenario. This team just does not perform well when they're not rested, and a lot of that has to do due to lack of depth.
ii) Bucks are 7-3 ATS on a 1 day rest. Obviously, Milwaukee performs much better when they have a day off in between games. So Pistons are pretty awful without rest, while Bucks are pretty good when rested...I like the way this is shaping up even more now.
iii) Bucks are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games, following a SU loss. This team really tries to improve their peformance following a loss, and this situation won't be any different. They're playing at home, coming off a loss at GSW, and facing a team that beat them already this year. I like them to really put forth max effort in this one.
iv) Health. Jennings has been back for a few games now. Salmons has played a few after his injury. Bogut will be back in this one (hopefully). All these guys are going to continue playing better and better, the more games they get 'under their belt'. I expect Salmons and Jennings to improve their performance in this one tonight.
Bucks are 5-2 ATS at home in their last 7 games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 as a favorite. I expect them to play well at home tonight, contain this 'tired' Pistons team defensively, and get a comfortable double-digit win in this one.
Good luck!
0
Hot Forum Topics
