Messages

Forum Index : NBA Betting : Messages Page 1 of 2  1 2  
Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: CrazyMilkMan's NBA Thursday
CrazyMilkMan
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
CrazyMilkMan
Participation Meter
MVP
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 19989
Location:
#1
Posted: 2/3/2011 2:05:47 AM
NBA YTD: 319-229-13
This Week: 6-12
Wednesday: 2-4

Horrible week. Will probably play Thursday and take the rest of the week off.

Miami Heat +1.5 @ Orlando Magic 195.5
In the first meeting between two of the East's top teams, Wade led the Heat with 26 points outscoring the Magic 28-10 in the 3rd en route to a 96-70 win. This was the Heat's first home game as well. Fast forward, say almost a month later, Orlando jumped on the Heat and controlled major minutes of the game with a 15-6 spurt in the last 4 minutes of the pay off round to seal the win 104-95.

Both games have contrasting feel to it with Miami winning the 3rd Quarter SU/ATS as the only thing that is consistent. Bosh and James barely made scoring impact in Game 1 and doubled it up on the second game. Outside Dwight, Orlando could barely get anyone going in the 1st game after being allowed only 30% in FG. The second game went very well with JJ Reddick and Brandon Bass responding well en route to a team FG percentage of 51. Miami shot 40% in both games which tells you more about the Magic's team defense.

The more I look at both games, the more I'm enticed to play the UNDER 195.5. Miami plays better defense against the better teams in the league. They are two steps better at home but can't be denied that they are still a force on the road. Let's check the numbers.

Miami is 10th in the league with the least Pace Factor at 93.2 to Orlando's 93.9 (13th). Pace is the number of possession a team has at an average, if we use the Effective Field Goal percentage to guage their points per possession. We more or less get 56% for Orlando and 55% for Miami. In a perfect world, that's like both teams scoring 100-106 points. That's 206 total points easy, which is around 10 points above the set total (originally opened at 197).

Miami is 4th in the league in terms of defensive efficiency allowing 99.5 points per 100 possessions to Orlando's (5th in the league) 100. If we factor each team's pace we'd probably get somewhere around 92-93 points. That's 185 total points which is now the opposite when we use both teams offense.

Orlando is 10-13-1 O/U at home to Miami's 12-13-0 on the road which doesn't tell us much. So we can get a better sample out of this, I checked out Orlando's stat against the top 10 teams with the least allowed in points per game. Orlando is 3-12 O/U against them. Miami on the other hand is 9-7 O/U. Both are playing after 2 days so they should have a lot of energy for defense.

Last 5 games for the Magic totals at 196 to the Heat's 199. Their home-road average looks like this: 195 for Miami, 193 for Orlando. Overall, Miami and Orlando games both averages 195 ppg. If we take everything in, it looks like we'll see them fall close to the total now at 195.5.

Put little weight on most of these stats since both teams is different from who they are now. In their last game, Miami just suffered their 3rd loss in a row and Orlando is playing with a different set of players now. Orlando is 13-10 O/U with the new guys and 12-10-1 ATS. Miami now has a definitive roles for their guys and just about even in O/U after the loss to Orlando and making that big December run.

Right now, I'm leaning on the UNDER 195.5 and probably make a play in the second half for the sides. Notice that there's always one quarter where one team fails to score past 20.

BOL.

quote
Saigon88 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Saigon88
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Mar 2009
Posts: 647
Location: Canada
#2
Posted: 2/3/2011 2:10:21 AM
quote
XhuegoX send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
XhuegoX
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Mar 2005
Posts: 11016
Location: California
#3
Posted: 2/3/2011 2:27:07 AM
quote
CMJohnson1
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: JustBet.cx |
CMJohnson1
Participation Meter
Legend
Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 31386
Location: New Hampshire
#4
Posted: 2/3/2011 2:38:43 AM
Big time against you friend.  Either way...good luck. 


quote
matangster send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
matangster
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Apr 2008
Posts: 1188
Location: California
#5
Posted: 2/3/2011 2:42:54 AM
quote
jabbadon send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
jabbadon
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 3086
Location:
#6
Posted: 2/3/2011 2:49:17 AM
Got the Magic -1.5 don't see anybody on the heat who can stop Howard. Is it just me or are all the top cappers from the Philippines?
quote
CrazyMilkMan
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
CrazyMilkMan
Participation Meter
MVP
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 19989
Location:
#7
Posted: 2/3/2011 2:50:10 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CMJohnson1:

Big time against you friend.  Either way...good luck. 




Really out of my game following a good week. Wouldn't be surprised if this doesn't hit. Goodluck CMJ! It's still a lean though.
quote
aireent777
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
aireent777
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: May 2009
Posts: 14216
Location:
#8
Posted: 2/3/2011 5:40:42 AM
quote
D-Town send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
D-Town
Participation Meter
Legend
Joined: Jul 2002
Posts: 120365
Location: Michigan
#9
Posted: 2/3/2011 7:37:25 AM
Good luck CMM. 
quote
wonwiththehook send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BookMaker |
wonwiththehook
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 6303
Location: United States
#10
Posted: 2/3/2011 7:43:45 AM
quote
3BallBomber send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
3BallBomber
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: May 2008
Posts: 12431
Location:
#11
Posted: 2/3/2011 8:17:46 AM
quote
JFEEZEE send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
JFEEZEE
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Aug 2009
Posts: 3294
Location: Oklahoma
#12
Posted: 2/3/2011 8:25:19 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jabbadon:

Got the Magic -1.5 don't see anybody on the heat who can stop Howard. Is it just me or are all the top cappers from the Philippines?
   Normally when the magic pound it to Howard it bogs there offense down he normally has a monster game but in return they lose ....as in Bulls game...I think there best chance is uptempo because they have better bench.
quote
Reach send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
Reach
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Feb 2009
Posts: 1383
Location: California
#13
Posted: 2/3/2011 8:42:52 AM
quote
Reach send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
Reach
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Feb 2009
Posts: 1383
Location: California
#14
Posted: 2/3/2011 8:44:55 AM
quote
saintnation
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
saintnation
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Sep 2010
Posts: 64
Location:
#15
Posted: 2/3/2011 9:02:34 AM

cmm

quote
Nugsallday5 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Nugsallday5
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Nov 2009
Posts: 184
Location: California
#16
Posted: 2/3/2011 9:13:43 AM
look forward to reading your write-ups everyday
gl
quote
brent0887
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
brent0887
Participation Meter
MVP
Joined: Feb 2009
Posts: 18150
Location: New Hampshire
#17
Posted: 2/3/2011 9:45:50 AM
quote
SteelCrush
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
SteelCrush
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 441
Location: Ohio
#18
Posted: 2/3/2011 9:55:51 AM
quote
bosox713 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BetJamaica.com |
bosox713
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Nov 2003
Posts: 1928
Location: Massachusetts
#19
Posted: 2/3/2011 10:40:49 AM
Just play the Heat ML and cash the ticket.


quote
jmilrod
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
jmilrod
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Aug 2008
Posts: 7111
Location: Kentucky
#20
Posted: 2/3/2011 10:58:28 AM
Under
quote
Iw1nBets send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Iw1nBets
Participation Meter
Legend
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 58453
Location: Cocos Keeling
              Islands
#21
Posted: 2/3/2011 11:17:18 AM
quote
BoogerB send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
BoogerB
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 448
Location:
#22
Posted: 2/3/2011 11:26:55 AM
line jumped to 197 in the last 3 minutes
quote
dendogg55
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
dendogg55
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Nov 2010
Posts: 8875
Location: Italy
#23
Posted: 2/3/2011 12:17:13 PM
Good Luck!!!!
quote
primetime27 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
primetime27
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Jan 2010
Posts: 675
Location: South Carolina
#24
Posted: 2/3/2011 12:25:37 PM
Never a bad idea to take a day or 2 off to clear your head to get that milk money back.
quote
GoldenGuy send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
GoldenGuy
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Feb 2010
Posts: 287
Location:
#25
Posted: 2/3/2011 12:30:36 PM

Goodluck! No pressure!

quote
Forum Index : NBA Betting : Messages Page 1 of 2  1 2  
You have entered the forum as a GUEST. 
You must login/register to post or reply.