Mak's Wednesday Weaponry

What’s up guys.  Minimal loss yesterday thanks to the Aldridge & Amar’e props as well as the Lakers.  Frustrating game to watch for Portland backers.  No interior post presence.  Constant 4th quarter lobs, 6 ally-oops in the 2nd half is unacceptable, 19 points for Turiaf was not foreseen.  Big L got in early foul trouble which changed things, shots just did not fall for Portland.  This one was a bit tough to swallow.

Indiana was very impressive in their win over Philly, I still think the 76ers potent bench will allow them to compete for a playoff spot in the East.  I am still unsure of Indiana but their early season dominance over top-tier teams combined with their win in Philly has me watching them closely.  The Kings at Wiz was just a ridiculous game to watch, a coaches worst nightmare.  Stayed away from Minny for good reason, San Antonio continues to impress and are silently creeping into the record books for one of the best starts in NBA history.  Their next few games will tell us a lot about them.  Denver steamrolled the Suns, there is just something seriously wrong with Phoenix.  The confidence is not there, they do not trust the system or each other.  Watched Los Angeles Lakers history last night. When I stated in my thread I thought it had a chance to get ugly, I never thought it was get that hideous.  Decent slate of games today, should be some opportunities for profit.  Will map out my thoughts and be back around 5pm-6pm eastern time to finalize a card.  Wish you guys the best of luck.  Peace out - - - MAK

CHICAGO BULLS @ CHARLOTTE BOBCATS

Am I not reading this Cats team correctly?  At home they seem to be a completely different unit.  I thought the exit of Larry Brown would mean the exit of the half-court defensive press, but Silas has implemented the same defensive press in the half-court and incorporated a break mentality off turnovers.  Suits guys like D.J very well.  Larry Brown had a tendency to lock his players up and prevent them from doing what they are comfortable with.  He did it with both his point guards.  D.J and Raymond were never allowed to take a shoot in a free flow offense.  It always had to be a set play coming off a screen.  Silas doesn’t care; he just wants Charlotte to run off misses and turnovers.  He wants them to take open shots when they feel fit.  His team is striving and the return of Crash should improve their game overall.  The saying crash and burn fits Gerald well, it is only a matter of time before he puts his body on the line and gets injured again.  Jack is a commodity that may be moved at the deadline, their offense is suspect and I just do not see any way this team sneaks into the playoffs.  Jordan’s team is a lottery team and they face off against an outstanding defensive team tonight.  Thib is using a very strict and strange 7 man rotation.  Asik, Korver and Watson are out of the rotation....Mak loves it.  I am a big fan of the shortened rotation, I really think that is why Dantoni has succeeded everywhere.  All you need is 3 guys you trust and about 4-5 decent role players to get it done in the NBA.  Chicago has that in Noah, Booz and Rose.  Once Joakim returns, this Bulls team will run over opponents and have a nice swagger heading into the playoffs, I am sure of it.  For now Deng takes that 3rd man role and his inconsistency has me reluctant to back the Bulls for now.  If you believe Booz, Rose and Deng can beat the Cats then go for it.  In terms of shot distribution those are the 3 guys your wager will count on.  In my eyes this game lacks any value.

ATLANTA HAWKS @ TORONTO RAPTORS

A lean I would more than happy to be wrong on.  The Hawks should trample over my boys tonight.  Read my writeup on the Hawks yesterday.  The game was canceled, thus a rested Hawks team come into Toronto and will be surprised to see just as much snow.  For some reason Atlanta can’t handle a little snow and decided to shut the town down.  Ridiculous.  Now my boys have to face a rested and dangerous Hawks team.  As proclaimed yesterday. I think this is the best team in the NBA in terms of ball movement.  They don’t need a break down point guard to penetrate and kick.  They have an abundant amount of talent and the cohesion from playing so many games together is clearly evident each time the Hawks step on the floor.  Toronto is capable of beating any team, Jose is playing the best basketball of his career and is a very underrated point guard, Derozan is taking his game to another level and making a name for himself this year....as Mak mapped out in the season preview :) Sonny Weems will make his long-awaited return tonight.  May play a few minutes off the bench.  Marvin may play for Atlanta.  Either way this is an Atlanta or no play for me.  Will extend the research a bit and see if I can find anything I like, always reluctant to go against my boys but I love how Jamal Crawford is playing and this Atlanta squad is undervalued at the moment.  I see decent value in this spread.

DALLAS MAVERICKS @ INDIANA PACERS

Very interesting matchup.  Mums the word on Dirk.  Very secretive in terms of his injury.  All these non contact injuries in the NBA are ridiculous, this could be a patella problem and right now the Mavs may be in big trouble.  Dirk and Caron were the Mavs most consistent and potent offensive threats.  Terry continues his struggles, Kidd hasn’t exploded offensively in 2 years and Marion is no longer the Matrix.  It is up to Stevenson and Tyson to carry the load and they may not be able to lift the team by themselves.  Indiana is coming off a confidence boosting win.  Players like Granger are streak shooters, once they go off it is difficult for them to lose that groove.  He will be on target for at least a few games, as will Dunleavy coming off one of his best performances of the season.  Collison exploded for a career high in assists, Tyler is doing well in the starting 5.  Jeff Foster the ultimate professional continues to “do what he do.” 8 rebounds last game, a couple of changed shots, 2 deflections and 2 charges taken.  All in very limited minutes.  He gives this team extra possessions.  Yes, the Dallas Mavericks are an exceptional road team...but are they still that team? No Dirk, no Caron, a struggling Terry.....their bench used to be a deadly weapon with Jason and Shawn as a duo providing 2nd unit scoring.  Now their duo off the bench is Haywood and J.J....just not the same offensive production, careful when backing the Mavs, my suggestion is watch them this week and cautiously begin backing them again if Dirk proves his knee is 100%.

SACRAMENTO KINGS @ BOSTON CELTICS

This could be a play for me.  I understand I would be getting a ridiculous spread but I may get lucky.  All indications are KG will not play.  If Reke plays I may be able to obtain a decent line.  Boston will be looking to avenge their home loss tonight.  Don’t for one second think NBA players are not aware of what is going around in the NBA.  Celts clearly saw how the Lakers defended their home court last night.  The Kings come in off a back to back OT loss.  Cousins was putrid from the field going 4-19.  Thompson and Landry were invisible.  Westphall once again decided to change his starting 5 for the league leading 13th time.  He thinks Luther Head can guard John Wall and Rajon Rondo...ok then.  Rondo will decapitate Head and Udrih tomorrow.  14+ assists and he may penetrate and take it to the hole and pick up a double double.  Paul Pierce and Ray Allen will have little problem scoring against the 22nd defensive team in the NBA allowing almost 103 points a game.  Boston is #1 in the NBA in defense allowing about 92 a game.  Big Baby knows his time as a starter is coming to an end, he has not delivered the way most imagined.  Look for Davis to have a big game.  The Sac bigs are very slow to get out on mid range big men shooters.  Baby is a 15 foot assassin and can shoot with the best of them.  Boston has historically destroyed teams coming off a back to back game, as long as the vets are rested, they always come out and destroy their fatigued opponents.  I suspect them step up tonight, X-Factors are Marquis Daniels and Big Baby.

MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES @ DETROIT PISTONS

I have no feel for this game at all.  The Grizzlies disappointed me with their lack off effort against Charlotte.  Very lackadaisical, nothing genuine about their game that night.  I love the Griz roster, I suspect them to come out with better intensity tonight.  I am enjoying watching the progress of Greg Monroe on Detroit.  Three straight triple-doubles, will get some major minutes with Big Ben hobbling.  Detroit has the most productive 2nd unit in the NBA.  In the starting 5, dangerous weapons like Gordon, Stuck and Charlie can go off at anytime, their depth is very impressive and when playing well can matchup with anyone.  Blacklisted the Pistons a while back so no play for me.  No value in this game at all, slight lean to Detroit but no way I would go against this Griz roster or back the inconsistent Pistons..

SAN ANTONIO SPURS @ MILWAUKEE BUCKS

With the two youngsters off bench, the Spurs may be a bit more competitive on back to back games this year.  George Hill and Gary Neal always have firepower in their legs, they are young and fit and provide that offensive spark that Pop needs on a night to night basis.  Timmy is playing a career low in minutes played, his role on the team has diminished, thus the wear and tear on his body is much less.  Look for Timmy to dominate like never before on 0 days rest.  Bogut is a beast and a half.  It will be difficult for San An to handle him.  Blair is not big enough and neither is Antonio or Matt.  Mbah a Moute one of my favorite NBA players will take turns guarding 3 positions tonight.  He may find time on Timmy, Jefferson and Manu.  Manu has been horrible on back to back games.  Tony has led the team and may have to do so again tonight.  I think the Bucks do what Portland could not and redeem themselves at home after a hard fought loss against the Heat.  The Bucks lucked out not having to play yesterday and may have a situational advantage against a Spurs team that landed in Wisconsin in the morning from Minnesota.

ORLANDO MAGIC @ NEW ORLEANS HORNETS

I like this game.  I think this is Orlando's true proving ground.  Orlando has defeated numerous teams on their streak.  Excellent teams including the Spurs, Celts, Mavs, Rockets, Knicks and Bucks.  A win here in my opinion will solidify themselves as one of the 3 best teams in the East.  Both teams matchup very well with each other.  Look for Hedo Turkoglu to run the offense a lot more, he sets up high screen a rolls and is an exceptional passer.  Maybe it actually was Toronto and Phoenix not using him correctly, Van Gundy seems to be the only person on the planet that knows what Hedo needs to be a production player in the association...17 assists in a game?  Outstanding.  His height and vision allow him to make plays for teammates that wouldn’t be possible for Jameer to do.  There is no one playing better at his position than Dwight Howard. Averaging 22 and 15 boards in his last 5 games as well as 55% from the field, he goes against the man they debated to take over him as #1 overall Emeka Okafor....good decision Orlando.  Brandon Bass will face off against his former team and I think he plays David West well tonight.  The key tonight will actually come down to 6 no name players.  Jack, Smith and Green vs J.J, Arenas and Ryan.  Whichever trio can provide more offensive production will ultimately lead their team to victory.  I think it will be Gilbert, J.J and Ryan.  Their 3 point ability changes the game, Ryan spreads the floor completely, Arenas can break people off the dribble and J.J is a very underrated scorer who can get it done in multiple ways.  I presume this will be a very tough battle, New Orleans always fights.  But Orlando is on a mission right now, confidence is key to continued success.  The Magic believe in themselves and the system.  They believe they have made the right moves.  They believe their team is better...that belief is dangerous. 

OKLAHOMA CITY @ HOUSTON ROCKETS

This could be a fun game to watch.  Both teams love to get up and down.  Houston coming off their best win of the season.  If that was the return of Aaron Brooks than Houston is back and ready to make a serious run into the post season.  I really think they need Chuck Hayes back.  Jordan Hill is not doing it for me as a starting center and with Miller hurt the front-court that once boasted a 7’6 monster is now one of the weakest in the NBA.  Against Iblaaaka, Collison, Nenad, Green and Durant, Scola & Hill will find it difficult to rebound.  Shane Battier guards Durant well but Durant is 6’11 and has a massive frame unlike many small forwards in the NBA, if there is one matchup that Shane struggles with, it is with Kevin.  Thabo, Westbrook and Harden are all good perimeter defenders and will try to stay in front of Lowry and Aaron.  If Kevin plays he will not be much of a factor against Sefolosha; one of the premier defenders in the NBA.  OKC matches up better and have the more talented roster, but home cooking, confidence and the re-emergence of Aaron Brooks may cause Oklahoma City some problems.  Depending on the line, may decide to back the Thunder, but better to stay off this game.

NEW JERSEY NETS @ PHOENIX SUNS  

Both teams are in shambles, Phoenix on a back to back so the situational advantage goes to New Jersey.  Matchup wise the Lopez brothers meet up against each other.  Brook seems to step it up when playing his sibling.  If Devin doesn’t play look for Farmer to fill it up all game.  Kris Humphries may eat Frye & Warrick for dinner down low as will the rook.  The Suns have enough offensive weapons to win this game but I suspect the Nets to put up a big fight tonight.  This one may be a play but much depends on what type of line we receive.  The spread will show where oddsmakers thoughts are on the Suns.

             

NEW YORK KNICKS @ UTAH JAZZ

May try this one more time.  I don’t want to make it a habit of betting against the Knicks.  I love the way they play.  The swagger and gusto they show on the court.  Amar’e is a born leader and Felton is a stone cold stud with a lot of heart.  Situational slaguhter spot though, too much cross-country travel for the Knicks.  A back to back spot flying to Salt Lake City is never pretty, especially from Portland, Oregon.  Yes the Knicks are confident but they will face off against a Sloan defense that has had time to prepare for the Knicks.  Sloan’s tape sessions are brilliant and he will know what to do in order to contain the scorching Knicks offense.  Look for Williams to impose his will on Felton.  Jefferson and Milsap matchup well with Amar’e.  I think Stoudamire may actually produce more than he did last game but his team will struggle.  They won’t find 19 points from Turiaf and they will not be able to get easy uncontested buckets at the rim vs a Jerry Sloan team.  Utah has been a bit slow on 3 days rest but have been exceptional against teams on 0 days rest.  They may find it difficult to get going to begin with but should be able to outlast the back to back Knicks.  Doubt I will add a play on the spread here but it’s either Jazz or no play for me.

LOS ANGELES LAKERS @ GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS

Really starting to get a very good feel for the Lakers.  Champs are my #2 money makers this season.  Tonight I just do not have a feel for this game at all.  I love the Warriors, their roster is very underrated and at home they can really accelerate and create tempo.  Look for Ellis and Curry to have big games.  The crowd will be into it for sure.  A lot of Kobe fans in Cali so the Lakers will compete hard.  This should be a surprisingly good game.  I refuse to go against the Champs right now.  I think they have found their groove and coming off a blowout like that will not defuse their mentality back into that cocky state.  Instead it allowed role players like Luke, Shannon, Steve, Ebanks and Derrick to get in and get a feel for things.  Warriors have some subtle depth and serious talent.  No value here in my opinion.

MIAMI HEAT @ LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS

Can the Clippers really end this streak?  I seriously doubt it.  The Heat are on their own mission.  They love playing on the road, starting to embrace the role of the villains.  I love Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh.  I think Lebron is the most egotistical, idiotic little child in the NBA and he proved it with his childish remarks on Twitter regarding the Cavs last night.  Despite the fact that his personality is as attractive as Hilary Clinton in a thong, he is pure unadulterated domination.  His take over in the 4th in Portland was a sight to behold. In my opinion, Lebron and Dwayne are the 2nd best duo I have ever seen in the NBA, yes above Magic and Kareem, Tony and Timmy in their prime and even over Karl and Stockton and that is a  big statement for me, if it wasn’t for MJ, Karl and John would have 2 rings each.  I understand Lebron and Dwayne have never been to a finals together, but I assure you, this team is destined for gold legacy.  Never before have a combination of 3 men scored 100 points in regulation....these three have a chance to do it on any given night.  They are consistent in their ways.  Miami is dominating every aspect of the game, the only reason all these road games are so close is due to the fact that opposing teams play their best basketball when the Heat come to town.  The Clippers will do the same.  Baron, Eric, Ryan, Blake and Jordan have been playing exceptional basketball, but Miami knows they are very close to that 16 game road winning streak.  They want that history.  It’s 3 men vs the Clippers tonight.  The reason the Heat are so dangerous is because double teams are impossible to master against Miami.  Mario and Carlos cannot be left alone because of their shooting ability and in most positional situations the opposing team cannot double off the post man.  Joel and Z place themselves in positions which make it impossible for a man to float away from them.  That causes teams to have to play Lebron, Dwayne and Chris one on one and that just will not work.  It didn’t work when these 3 guys had their own teams and it will not work now.  The Miami Heat should extend their road winning streak with domination, skills and concentration.  Wade with game honors tonight, I may have about 2-3 plays situated within this game, will finalize and post in the evening.       

Really like the Magic

 

 

Thanks Mak

GL tonight Mak......

Just wanted to drop in and say hi Mak, will be reading your thoughts closer later today, good luck to you

Mak, how scary good are the Bulls going to be once Noah comes back? I think they have a legitimate chance to go the distance against the Beasts of the East (ORL, MIA, BOS) and I think there's probably good value in them coming out of the East at +1100 right now.

I wonder if there may be some potential fatigue or rhythm disruption with Atlanta tonight. They spent the last two days preparing for MIL and then the game gets cancelled and they have to get on a plane to fly to freaking Toronto? Toronto's style of play is nothing like MIL and while TOR has spent the last two days prepping for ATL, I have some concern that ATL may be looking at this as a throwaway game. ATL is above .500 on the road but they have lost to some bad teams on the road (NJ by 7, DET by 23, NJ by 6). They already beat TOR by 18 last time they played and covered their -1 line. Everyone knows this and now the books throw out -3.5 or -4? That seems like it is begging for ATL money to me. I'm gonna tread lightly on this game.

Tough schedule spot for IND tonight -- on a B2B and catching a professional Dallas team with three days of preparation.

The BOS/SAC game has all the makings for an utter beatdown by Boston... wouldn't be surprised to see a DD line in this one at all.

It warms my heart mak to see you giving love to Mbah a Moute. That's a good litmus test for someone as to their NBA knowledge -- ask them what they think of Prince Luc. If they gush over him, you know they actually watch the games and appreciate his non-box score plays that he brings to the table. I'd take a team full of Luc's anyday of the week. Most underrated defender in the league, hands down.

I'm really curious as to what line they throw out for that PHX/NJN game.... anything more than 5 points either way and I'll probably take the dog.

I agree that this situation favors Utah heavily. NYK coming off a huge win and I think they are about to face an inevitable letdown against a well-prepared Utah team that is traditionally tough at home. Utah has the size to slow down Amare and I really am looking forward to Deron v. Felton.

I hadn't seen LeBron's tweet until you mentioned it, mak. What a douche. I think this line is about 2 points too high. I expect the Clippers to give maximum effort here in this spot. They are still in the dream portion of their schedule and have had 2 days off their solid win against GSW to prepare for MIA. I bet that Blake Griffin eats Chris Bosh alive tonight.

Good luck friend, looking forward to seeing what you lock in

New lines just released mak:

Dallas +1
Boston -13
Oklahoma City -3.5
Utah -6.5
Phoenix -6
Lakers -5

Nice work!!!

GL.

MIAMI HEAT @ LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS

Can the Clippers really end this streak?  I seriously doubt it.  The Heat are on their own mission.  They love playing on the road, starting to embrace the role of the villains.  I love Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh.  I think Lebron is the most egotistical, idiotic little child in the NBA and he proved it with his childish remarks on Twitter regarding the Cavs last night.  Despite the fact that his personality is as attractive as Hilary Clinton in a thong, he is pure unadulterated domination.  His take over in the 4th in Portland was a sight to behold. In my opinion, Lebron and Dwayne are the 2nd best duo I have ever seen in the NBA, yes above Magic and Kareem, Tony and Timmy in their prime and even over Karl and Stockton and that is a  big statement for me, if it wasn’t for MJ, Karl and John would have 2 rings each.  I understand Lebron and Dwayne have never been to a finals together, but I assure you, this team is destined for gold legacy.  Never before have a combination of 3 men scored 100 points in regulation....these three have a chance to do it on any given night.  They are consistent in their ways.  Miami is dominating every aspect of the game, the only reason all these road games are so close is due to the fact that opposing teams play their best basketball when the Heat come to town.  The Clippers will do the same.  Baron, Eric, Ryan, Blake and Jordan have been playing exceptional basketball, but Miami knows they are very close to that 16 game road winning streak.  They want that history.  It’s 3 men vs the Clippers tonight.  The reason the Heat are so dangerous is because double teams are impossible to master against Miami.  Mario and Carlos cannot be left alone because of their shooting ability and in most positional situations the opposing team cannot double off the post man.  Joel and Z place themselves in positions which make it impossible for a man to float away from them.  That causes teams to have to play Lebron, Dwayne and Chris one on one and that just will not work.  It didn’t work when these 3 guys had their own teams and it will not work now.  The Miami Heat should extend their road winning streak with domination, skills and concentration.  Wade with game honors tonight, I may have about 2-3 plays situated within this game, will finalize and post in the evening.       

...the DON.......

wade don't go by flash anymore what's his new nickname?

I like the write ups. Though I'm on the other side of Miami, I can't deny the fact that this big 3 is not just a monster but a beast. BOL 

theres no way Greg Monroe has 3 straight triple doubles???

that has to mean double doubles right?

As always good luck today.

Kings ML...Clippers ML..1 unit each..1 will win at least..

Love the write ups. Your so right about felton...I love the dudes need to win and his intensity.  So far spurs are the most popular bet on sportsbook.  Might be a good reason (besides what you stated) to fade them tonite.  Best of luck MAK

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r4cr1HGXaAw

I agree with Miami! BOL Mak!

Good info as always mak....