Mak's Wednesday Weaponry

What’s up gents.  Solid night on Tuesday with a flawless victory going 2-0 with Atlanta and Los Angeles.  Shannon Brown turned out to be the x-factor as expected.  A great 4th quarter display by the youngster.  Atlanta’s depth proved to be too much for the short-handed Pacers, Josh Smith was awesome all night especially his 7 rejections.  As stated Houston was a no play with Yao and Bud out.  With even one I believe the depth would have been different and enough to squeak out the victory.  D Rose was brilliant, his take-over in the 4th reminded me of Wade in his sophomore and senior years. 

I also noticed some posters on yesterdays thread disagree with the Houston pick even after it was known that Yao and Bud were out.  I think those individuals who don’t bother to read the write-ups are going to suffer in the long run.  I understand they can be boring and long to those who are not fans of the game but I have a feeling this season I am going to have a lot of “contingency” wagers that will solely depend on the status of certain players.  It is going to be a long grueling NBA season and with so much widespread talent in the league it will be crucial if rosters are even slightly adjusted.  Just keep an eye out for my contingency bets, I usually state it in the first sentence of a write-up for those too lazy or disinterested in reading the write-ups.  Got 3 of them for you today including 2 new team previews.  As always fellas, I wish you the best of luck on your wagers tonight.  Peace out - - - MAK

WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 17TH CLIPPERS @ MINNESOTA

PICK: MINNESOTA – 4 (-110)

The Timberwolves are flat out better then the Los Angeles Clippers right now.  They have more talent, more upside and more to play for.  The last time they were in Minny, a guy by the name of Kevin Love decided to make NBA history.  I think after 2 games on the road and a bit of rest, home cooking will be just perfect for the Wolves.  I believe being back home will bring back that feeling Love and this team had after coming back and winning against NY.  That should carry over in front of an exited Minnesota home crowd tonight.  Minny is coming off a tough 2 game road trip where they faced Atlanta and Charlotte on back to back nights.  They have nothing to be ashamed off, had a chance to knock off what will be one of the best home teams in the conference in the Hawks and outplayed the Cats for about 45 minutes the next night.  These young pups have been very impressive.  We all know what Love has done, but Beasley is finding himself.  Remember the great Pat Riley drafted this guy # 2 not too long ago and Beasley was very highly touted coming out of college.  I was certain he was going to be a star but lost hope after those depression problems.  This guy has massive potential, he could be a destructive scorer and reminds me of a poor man’s Mello sometimes.  In his last 4 games Beasley is averaging a staggering 33 points and 6 rebounds.  That is better point production than anyone in the league in their last 4.  He is the guy Minny goes to when they need a score and he is delivering.  Milicic has been playing some consistent ball and is providing big man stats, blocking shots and rebounding well.  Bust or no bust, cannot deny he is a 7 ft presence in the lane with some skill.  Telfair has been a welcome surprise for Rambis.  With Flynn and Ridnour sidelined with injury, Telfair has gotten the reigns and is playing some smart consistent basketball and running the team with fluency and poise.  The key to a Minny win will be locking down Eric Gordon.  He has been given the green light by the Clippers, he is their star and he is getting the opportunity.  Wesley Johnson is a very big 2 guard at 6’7 with a serious wingspan, he may cause Gordon problems tonight.  However if he doesn’t, Corey Brewer will.  Brewer is one of the most underrated perimeter man to man defenders in the NBA, I have said it before, he could make a difference on a playoff team.  Last year he caused Eric a lot of problems and I suspect will do so again tonight.  No Kaman, no Baron and no Foye makes the Clippers a very thin team.  Ryan Gomes and Craig Smith may have decent games tonight back in Minnesota where they have played, but other then that I just do not see this Clippers roster accomplishing anything tonight against a young hungry team at home.  No “Love” for LA tonight.
3 UNITS ANTHONY “THE DECISION” TOLLIVER - - -

WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 17TH RAPTORS @ 76ERS

PICK: TORONTO + 5 (-120)

This bet is 100% contingent upon the status of Andre Iguodala.  If he does suit up this will most likely be a no play for me.  Thus far in the season I am 0-2 on wagers with the Raps, however my last 2 leans against them have been correct so I may be getting a feel for them.  As I stated previously, for 3 years straight this has been the team that has earned me the most money so I will continue to back them when I see fit.  Both teams in a tough situational aspect however Philly is just ending a brutal stretch here.  They have not been in Philly since very early in the month and are coming off a 5 game road trip.  This back to back is killer as in many instances these type of home games have no advantage to the home squad at all, especially in Philly where the weekday attendance is very weak.  This will not feel like a home game whatsoever.  I see the young guns on Toronto taking advantage of that.  For anyone who thinks the Wizards didn’t deserve to win the game last night, you don’t know anything about basketball.  Wizards played to perfection last night and despite some soft defensive possessions by the Raps the Wiz could have beat a lot of NBA teams with the performance they put on last night.  Tonight matchups are key.  Philly due to their lack of size up front enjoys going with a small line up at times.  They play Hawes limited minutes and instead play Elton at the 5 with either Young or Nocioni at the 4.  I think this will prove to be beneficial for the Raps tonight as it would actually allow for Linas Kleiza, Sonny Weems & DeMar DeRozan to all play at the same time at the 4, 3 and 2 spot.  That is an offensive load for any team to handle at one time.  All three having been playing great and will be key to a Raps cover and potential victory tonight.  Off the bench the only serviceable Philly big is Tony Battie.  The Raps will counter with David Andersen and Bargnani who will both offset any positive production from Battie as their range lures him away from the basket, thus preventing him from boxing out and rebounding, all he is really good for at this stage in his career.  Elton Brand will be blanketed tonight by Reggie Evans, Reggie back in Philly so I foresee a monster effort from him tonight.  Jack and Jose should produce more than Holiday and Williams.  Overall I do think the Raps are more talented overall than Philly however not much of a difference with Iggy in.  The situational spot is a slight disadvantage for Philly but combined with Iggy’s absence it makes the points worth it and this dog very live.  With no Iggy, Raps get jiggy.
2 UNITS AMIR “34 MILLION” JOHNSON - - -

NEW ORLEANS HORNETS - - - The New Orleans Hornets are an under the radar team in the Western Conference.  I don’t know much about Monty Williams I hear good things about him but the coach is really not important here.  What is important for New Orleans success this season is Chris Paul’s health and stability within the roster and organization.  I don’t like Ariza, I think he is one of the most overrated offensive players in the NBA.  The only reason he was ever touted as an offensive weapon was because he shined for the Lakers for half a season and the playoffs.  He had a horrible season shooting last year with Houston and was just terribly inconsistent.  Nevertheless, I think Collision was not needed on this roster and Ariza was a desperately needed small forward who can really get at it on the defensive end.  CP3 will find a way to make him a productive player.  David West is the 17 ft assassin.  A smooth stroke, above par post game and good rebounding ability, this former all-star is the robin to CP3’s batman.  Emeka Okafor is the key to this team.  If he can somehow find a way to be a serviceable and dominant 5 man for the Hornets, this team could make the playoffs this year.  Marco Belinelli should be thanking the Raps for trading him, CP3 could make this shooter shine this year.  As it looks in the pre season Marco will be the starting 2 guard and his ability to stretch the d is key.  Now here is where the Hornets will go unnoticed all season.  Their bench is underrated to the naked eye.  Those who know the NBA, can clearly see the talent on the pine.  Very subtle yet deep talent.  Willie Green is a proven scorer and someone who is perfect coming off the bench and providing instant offense.  I think Peja is on a contract year which means those injuries could disappear and he could turn into that long range assassin again.  Jason Smith is someone that none of you know but he will be their backup big man this year.  From Philly, Smith is a long power forward with some shot blocking skill.  He showed a lot of promise his rookie year but an injury plagued him for a while.  He could be a gem for them this year. Pops and Quincy are two more young bigs who could get an opportunity this year.  I really like them picking up Mbenga, a rotation player for the Lakers at times and showed some promising attributes.  An affordable big man and a great off season acquisition. The Hornets may not have the most flashy roster, but Chris Paul is an MVP candidate, a guy who can make something out of a nothing, still in my opinion the best pure point guard currently in the NBA, there is just something about him that is a cut above the competition.  If he is happy in New Orleans, he could lead this team back to the playoffs this year.

2010/2011 NEW ORLEANS HORNETS - - - CP3 will have serious MVP considerations and may even end up winning it depending on how well the Hornets do. Marco Bellineli will be a most improved candidate.  The New Orleans Hornets will surprise many and make the 2010/2011 NBA playoffs only to get ousted in the first round.

DALLAS MAVERICKS - - - Mavs are a very interesting team.  I just love Mark Cuban.  He is the best GM in the league.  Only made one career mistake really and that was trading Steve Nash.  Other than that he has gone out each and every year and tried to make his team better.  This year he goes out and attains Tyson Chandler.  Adding even more depth to an outstanding front court.  Dirk is not soft despite contrary beliefs, he is a star and will lead this team again this season.  J Kidd is still one of the best all around point guards in the NBA and cannot be underestimated.  Mavs will have Butler and Haywood for an entire season including training camp which should help this team’s cohesion this year.  Shawn Marion still a very dangerous player on the break and has the versatility in his game to do big things from time to time.  Jason Terry could easily win the 6th man of the year award.  He is deceptively strong for his size, a very good shooter and always has the confidence to take big shots if necessary.  J.J Barea is another year older and his game should show some maturity and confidence as well.  Overall this Dallas team has the talent to match up with the big guns in the East and West.  Rick Charlisle always runs a shallow rotation which I like especially since this team lacks a little depth from the 9-15 spots.  I do believe they are an upper echelon team in the West and will once again have a solid year especially on the road.  I think they once again hold the title for best road team in the NBA.

2010/2011 DALLAS MAVERICKS - - - The Mavs are a team that have a chance to earn home court advantage in the West.  I think their road warrior mentality allows them to obtain home court but once again as years past, Dirk and the Mavs will fail to protect their home court in the playoffs and thus once again be eliminated in the first round.  Jason Terry will win co-sixth man of the year awards with Gilbert Arenas.  Dirk will be in consideration for MVP.

WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 17TH DALLAS @ NEW ORLEANS

PICK: NEW ORLEANS MONEYLINE

Going with the straight up revenge win on Wednesday night.  The New Orleans Hornets were in control of that game in Dallas despite poor execution.  Emeka, West and Ariza combined for 10-31 yet Dallas still needed a late 4th quarter comeback to secure the win at home.  A lot of individuals will probably think that Caron Butler returning adds even more value to Dallas tonight.  I disagree.  I think Butler back in the rotation will mess things up a bit.  Marion seems to play better without Butler in the rotation and prior to Caron’s injury he was shooting the rock relatively poorly and inconsistently.  Him playing means less shots for Terry who has been hot as of late.  Despite Dallas being an above average road team, the Hornets have been perfect at home and will want to continue that tonight.  Revenge has really been a key aspect to the NBA early in the season. Hornets were very upset to lose the game the way they did.  Dallas didn’t really deserve the win.  Tonight I just do not see Okafor and West combining for 29% shooting.  Peja , Green and Bayless will provide offensive off the bench and Smith and Mbenga will provide crucial big man minutes off the pine as well.  Defense will be key tonight, the better defensive team will win.  Mavs have a solid chance to take this, but I really believe Chris will dominate and exact revenge on the Mavs tonight.
2 UNITS CHRIS “PRIME TIME” PAUL - - -

GL! 

Great work Mak as always!! Love your writeups and they prove that you take this very seriously. 

Any opinion on the Phx-Mia matchup? 

thanks yesterday much love

Keep up the good work Mak.

Cheers

mak - i fell into the "did not read category last night"

i take note and will read all the way through on your insights going forward , my bad last night , will make the adjustments

now for tonight's games

i just looked at the minny/lac game

while it's hard to endorse a clipper pick here , i'm less enthuased about the t-wolves

they have played well of late , the knick game coming from 21 down to win , and then the 2 road games were they were in all at wars and played very well and covered both games , in fact they have covered a lot of games in a row

now they come home to face a clipper team and now they are the favorite? it's a new role for this team , i just can't see a play on them based on them being a favorite and coming off of 2 brutally tough road games that had to take something out of them

clippers in my opinion didn't give an effort against nj off the ot loss vs the pistons , in my opinon they will be fresher tonight than minny and the 4 pts could come into play .......just my 2 cents

 

It's always great to read your write ups. Learning alot from one of the pros here like yourself.

Hope to ride that money train and get it hot and running

BOL mak!

Hornets Raptors

BOL on the other side of the Hornets game

Thanks, good luck to you as well.

 

Thanks appreciate that buddy. Yes I take money and basketball very seriously.  Plus I love to write.  I know it sounds stupid but I really believe in the Karma of helping people make money.  In the last 3 years my business has flourished and I know it is silly to say but I truly believe its because I have sincerely tried to help people better understand the game and make coin. 

As for the Suns and Miami game, this is a vital game for me in terms of what I think of the Heat.  I will watch this game real closely.  Game of the night for me.  I think this will prove what type of team Miami really is.  Phoenix is very deep, and have been very impressive, Miami gets the win.  Spread has no value.

Best of luck with your wagers pal.

 

Appreciate that Hulkamania.

As always Rockstar thanks for the kind words, best of luck tonight.

Appreciate the post bud.  I don't see anything wrong with Minny being a favorite here.  I remember last year when they were hot they were favorites of 7.5 against low-tier teams in the league.  I currently have the Los Angeles Clippers roster ranked last in the NBA.  I am willing to take a gamble that Minny can cover two possessions on the Clips.  The gamble in taking two low quality teams is anything can happen, anyone can win.  Good luck with your wagers bud.

Always a pleasure DSJ.

Thanks for dropping by AJ.  Good luck with your wagers tonight.

Really appreciate the king words buddy, always good hearing from you MYL.  Best of luck with your plays tonight.

Good luck Buddy..

 

mak i hear you about them being fav's , they s/b the fav's over the clips

just don't know about them coming off of those 2 road games where they expanded a lot of energy

might be a pass , will see it's up to 5