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Finals - Game 3

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Posted: #1

LAK @ BOS  - gm3  Playoff Record :

BOS : 13-6 SU   13-6 ATS

LAK :  13-5 SU   10-8  ATS

Series : BOS : 1-1 SU & ATS   O/U : 1-1

Average Scores in playoff ( before this series) 

LAK : 53.6 (1st H)  101.7 ( FG ) 

BOS : 48.8 (1st H)   91.4 ( FG ) 

Average Scores in Finals ( 2 games )

LAK : 49 ( 1st H )  98 ( FG )

BOS : 47.5 ( 1st H )  96 ( FG )

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

After 2 games the books are "dead-on " on the numbers .As of now most books have : BOS -2.5  192.5  and 1st H : -1.5 96.5

For 1st H In reg-season :

93, 93.5, 94, 95, 96 , 97 -  Play Over

94.5, 95.5, 96.5, 97.5 - Play Under  ( Key numbers :95.5, 97.5 )

when you see these :  (4) numbers: 95.5, 96, 96.5, and 97  -then  1st Qtr line will be : 47.5 , 48, and 48.5

For this game ,with 1st H : 96.5 and 1st Qtr: 49.5 !!! - This's 1st time - In my database 's numbers - that I've seen the 1st Qtr number this high for 1st H number at 96.5 

I will post my plays when lines from all books are settle.As of now numbers indicate UNDER as a play ( s ) for 1st Half  & FG .

But right after Gm2 ,both teams had to board the plans and arrived late lastnight /or early this morning .Will fatigue be a factors / meaning tire legs / which is = OVER   as a good plays ?

 
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Posted: #2
tire legs = no defense...and open shots...imo
 
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Morning JC....I Trust you are well... Tonights game doesn't really set up to be the most advantageous as you've already pointed out. As we dwindle down to the final game, we really start to look for small edges that give us reasons behind our wagers, since really the lineup is fixed, no major injuries or players out for game 3....that said, no need to really over think this game, as you so readily point out the performances of pas are quite consistent and the current line right on, give or take 1-2 either way.
I'll be on the under tonite (FG U163 @ -111), but only for a 3x play...I hopefully will be looking for a 2ndH opportunity to lay some weight down.

BOL and see you closer to game time.

 
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Posted: #5

1st Half :

LAK - ML (+115 )  2x

OVER 96  - 2x

*** as of now 12 out of 16 books settle at 96 and  14 out of 15 w/1st Qtr at 49 .

FG :

HCA = 4 pts ,and even the Celtics took game 2 in Staple Center,and books still Fav the Lakers to win ? something gotta to give !! 

LAK -ML ( +120 )  - 3x

BOLTA,

 
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Posted: #6
Hey JC....Just checking back...I see no FG total play....

I'm not getting any sense of a big play tonite, so i suspect I'll be in the shadows on live play and playing quarters and halves most of the night....I feel your play on LAK ML is definitely the way to go rather than pay the juice on the line...I'm a little uncertain tonite on 1stH, and consequently am going to tail you on this....on FG side play....still undecided.

Current plays then for me are...

1Q - O48.5   1unit
1H - O96       2x
1H - ML         2x
FG - U163     3x

have you reviewed the prop plays at all yet?


 
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Posted: #7
...sorry   12ML  LAK side play....tialing
 
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Posted: #8
...will get it eventually... 1/2H ML LAK
 
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Posted: #9
Discussion...

Was reflecting a little just now on the 1st games, and thought to myself, the refs have been calling the action extremely tight 1st 2 games....anyone have thoughts if about whether or not they let up a little tonight....frankly, I think it's been a bit of a spoiler to the action....players cannot even touch each at this point...and it's having an impact on whether the bench comes into the game, the speed, tempo, rhythm etc.... or not.




 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by sg004591:

Hey JC....Just checking back...I see no FG total play....

I'm not getting any sense of a big play tonite, so i suspect I'll be in the shadows on live play and playing quarters and halves most of the night....I feel your play on LAK ML is definitely the way to go rather than pay the juice on the line...I'm a little uncertain tonite on 1stH, and consequently am going to tail you on this....on FG side play....still undecided.

Current plays then for me are...

1Q - O48.5   1unit
1H - O96       2x
1H - ML         2x
FG - U163     3x

have you reviewed the prop plays at all yet?


No prop plays for this game , but I wagers 1/2 unit on these 3 plays:

1st Qtr : BOS  TT OVER 24.5

1st H : LAK  TT OVER 48

FG : BOS TT OVER  97.5

 

 
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Posted: #11
 
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Posted: #12
Well im on:

Half under 96.5
game under 192.5
Boston -2.5

Don't get caught up with the hype that the Lakers are in a must win situation.  This series will go as follows:

Dogs + Over

or

Favorite + Under

With line not meaning anything as outright winner covers(based on JCtS theory), I have Celtics winning tonight in a close one again.
 
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Posted: #13

Quote Originally Posted by backdooor_cover:

Well im on:

Half under 96.5
game under 192.5
Boston -2.5

Don't get caught up with the hype that the Lakers are in a must win situation.  This series will go as follows:

Dogs + Over

or

Favorite + Under

With line not meaning anything as outright winner covers(based on JCtS theory), I have Celtics winning tonight in a close one again.

and this will be a 3rd times - We are on the opposite sides plays ,once again !

For the Total plays : like Sg004591 wrote in post # 3: ..." the performances of pas are quite consistent and the current line right on, give or take 1-2 either way...." that's why I leave the FG Total alone and just bet the 1st Half .

I do not think this 's a must win for Lakers but opposite : It's a MUST WIN for Celtics ! ( gm6 & 7 will be in LA...if BOS ONLY win 2 out of 3  ) .My stratergy will be : If Lakers loss to nite ,I will double up on Lakers's in gm4 !

 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by JCtS:

and this will be a 3rd times - We are on the opposite sides plays ,once again !

For the Total plays : like Sg004591 wrote in post # 3: ..." the performances of pas are quite consistent and the current line right on, give or take 1-2 either way...." that's why I leave the FG Total alone and just bet the 1st Half .

I do not think this 's a must win for Lakers but opposite : It's a MUST WIN for Celtics ! ( gm6 & 7 will be in LA...if BOS ONLY win 2 out of 3  ) .My stratergy will be : If Lakers loss to nite ,I will double up on Lakers's in gm4 !



BUT YOUR ALSO STILL STUCK ON THE IDEA THAT LAKERS WIN THIS SERIES AND MAKING BETS BASED ON IT.  IM TAKING THIS GAME BY GAME, ALTHOUGH I DO THINK CELTICS WIN IT ALL.  UNDER IS MY STRONGEST PLAY AND ADDING CELTICS BASED ON MY THEORY.
 
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Posted: #15
GL
 
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In a way ,you are right - I'm leaning ( actually thinking) Lakers win this series !

But this game lines ( to me ) : kindda fishy though ! with HCA and they just take gme 2 in LA - Lines 's ONLY 2.5 ??? way too easy to cover don't you think ?

Can't ignore the Fact: Ph.Jackson is 47-0 ! ...LOL ...

and I'm seeing 48-0 in order ...

 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by JCtS:

In a way ,you are right - I'm leaning ( actually thinking) Lakers win this series !

But this game lines ( to me ) : kindda fishy though ! with HCA and they just take gme 2 in LA - Lines 's ONLY 2.5 ??? way too easy to cover don't you think ?

Can't ignore the Fact: Ph.Jackson is 47-0 ! ...LOL ...

and I'm seeing 48-0 in order ...



oddsmakers did the same thing in the Boston/Orlando series game 3 when it went back to Boston.  Everyone thought Orlando wins for sure, must win, blah blah blah, and so the line was low.  Boston took advantage of the moment they were given and put the series away.  Don't be masked by the reality that Boston is still a heavy dog in all of this and is still flying under the radar.  Everyone sees what LA did wrong and none of what Boston did right.  Look for Pierce and or KG to be a big factor in tonights game.  We already know what LA has to offer... Kobe, Kobe, Kobe with a side order of Gasol.  Also think Bynum will be limited in minutes because of the high minutes played so far, short rest and what has be an ailing knee.
 
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Posted: #18
also to the public and line in which Lakers are not favored is a gift.  Easy taking because now they get points instead of giving points.  It makes it easier than for the house to cover.  But in any case much respect and props to you as you have done very well for all of us and helped us all out a lot
 
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Posted: #19

Quote Originally Posted by backdooor_cover:

 

....  Don't be masked by the reality that Boston is still a heavy dog in all of this and is still flying under the radar.  Everyone sees what LA did wrong and none of what Boston did right. 

I went out for a drink ,( Just want to think  outside the box ) and now ready to offset my Lakers play ( FG ) .

You were right about my lean for Lakers in this series , and I was OVER LOOK : Celtics "point of views angles !

Thanks,

 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by JCtS:

I went out for a drink ,( Just want to think  outside the box ) and now ready to offset my Lakers play ( FG ) .

You were right about my lean for Lakers in this series , and I was OVER LOOK : Celtics "point of views angles !

Thanks,



this has kicked us in the ass before but i hope it works out this time.  I believe it is in our favor.


 
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Posted: #21
Hi everyone...just back now...let me jump into the discussion...First let me preface by saying I favor no side FG at this time...but do lean LAK FG....Yes BOS did go back to ORL and beat them in game 3...and that was where the series was won...CLEARLY.....All that to say is...BOS dug deep and won it there....Well I believe that LAK knows only too well the importance of not keeping up with the ebb and flows of a 7 game series after losing game 4 of the 07/08 season...NOT a must win game....well I believe this is a must win game....LAK not only knows, but can deliver on a 'must win'.
If I'm laying  wager on a side play FG, it would be on LAK tonight....I say it is a must win for them....not a nice to have....question is...does BOS have a bigger motivation....we'll see.

Personlly, I will lay off and evaluate 1stH play (small 1 unit wager) in exchange for the potential to have a large opportunity in the 2ndH.



 
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Posted: #22
lakers
 
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Posted: #24

number @ 95.5 now

????

 
 
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Posted: #25
well the line says BOS ain't coming back...-4.5....that said I'm strong to jum on the under 2ndH at 96....and line holding steady
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