Posted:
#1
And not because Steve Nash looks like a raccoon now with the send-off gift from Duncan last round. Hell, Steve can play with one eye closed.
Three pointers
Just like Orlando, PHX loves the 3ball. The thing is, even when PHX's 3-pters as a percentage of total FG attempts are lesser than LAL's-- meaning they're taking more midrange jumpers and shots in the paint-- PHX still loses. In their 4 reg-season matchups, the only Suns victory came in Dec. 28, 2009, where they shot a hair-raising 33 three-pt attempts (making 12), and the result was a 118-103 PHX victory. That kind of offensive clinic is not likely to repeat itself after an 8-day layoff. Some might say "rest," I say it's "rust." Nothing kills a run 'n gun team's momentum more than prolonged rest, however good it does Steve Nash and Amare.
The other 3 meetings went LAL's way, and 2 of those were actually games where LAL shot slightly more 3pters than PHX (21 vs 13, 25 vs 21), and LAL actually shot way better percentages than PHX in those cases (48% vs 38% and 36% vs 29%). That tells us 2 things:
a) PHX, while a good 3-pt shooting team (actually, the NBA's best), isn't very good at defending the perimeter when their opponents starts launching from long distance. That can't be good news against LAL, the league's best 3-pt defense team (32.8% FG allowed beyond the arc during the reg season)
b) while the halfcourt setup is more to LA's liking, LAL can play the 3-pt game with PHX and come out on top.
Matchups
There is no doubt Stevie and Amare will get theirs, even with LA's bigger lineup (more on that later). The question is, can the likes of Frye, Hill, JRich and yes, Dragic step up again? PHX is smelling like roses now that it has finally extinguished its historical playoff nemesis the Spurs, but who are they kidding? This creaking Spurs team isn't the same team that tormented them in playoffs past, while a Portland team with an injury-hampered Brandon Roy managed to take them to 6 games, even stealing one in Phoenix. Granted, LA itself is banged up, with Bynum's swelling knee and Artest and Kobe all nursing some sort of injury. But Kobe is Kobe (and Kobe says he's still fuming over the 2007 & 07 eliminations dealt them by PHX), and Pau and Lamar are healthy and will definitely bother PHX's short-range attempts.
If you don't believe size matters, look at LAL's undersized opponents in the first 2 rounds. UTA was invincible at home, but without a true center, they gave up 2 straight at home for the LA sweep. Take out Game 4 in the LAL-OKC series (where a moody Kobe shot only 10 FG attempts and scored 12, just to prove a point), and we might very well have seen a 4-1 LA series win over OKC. Robin Lopez, you say? Yes, the PHX center is coming back for this game, and we all know what happens the first game when a player is reintegrated into a team's offense after a long time. Guy never was a factor in the 3 reg season games he played against LA anyway, notching 7.3 ppg and 5rpg averages. Not exactly a scoring or rebounding threat.
Lastly, if you like throwing around conspiracy theories, the next best thing to a LeBron-Kobe Finals showdown, now that the Cavs are out, would be LA-Boston Part II. David Stern wants no part of another Orlando ass-rape by LA like what happened last year.
Thus far in the playoffs, PHX has been a spotless 4-0 ATS as dog. I'm looking for that streak to break tonight vs LAL.
LA Lakers -6
All opinions welcome!
Three pointers
Just like Orlando, PHX loves the 3ball. The thing is, even when PHX's 3-pters as a percentage of total FG attempts are lesser than LAL's-- meaning they're taking more midrange jumpers and shots in the paint-- PHX still loses. In their 4 reg-season matchups, the only Suns victory came in Dec. 28, 2009, where they shot a hair-raising 33 three-pt attempts (making 12), and the result was a 118-103 PHX victory. That kind of offensive clinic is not likely to repeat itself after an 8-day layoff. Some might say "rest," I say it's "rust." Nothing kills a run 'n gun team's momentum more than prolonged rest, however good it does Steve Nash and Amare.
The other 3 meetings went LAL's way, and 2 of those were actually games where LAL shot slightly more 3pters than PHX (21 vs 13, 25 vs 21), and LAL actually shot way better percentages than PHX in those cases (48% vs 38% and 36% vs 29%). That tells us 2 things:
a) PHX, while a good 3-pt shooting team (actually, the NBA's best), isn't very good at defending the perimeter when their opponents starts launching from long distance. That can't be good news against LAL, the league's best 3-pt defense team (32.8% FG allowed beyond the arc during the reg season)
b) while the halfcourt setup is more to LA's liking, LAL can play the 3-pt game with PHX and come out on top.
Matchups
There is no doubt Stevie and Amare will get theirs, even with LA's bigger lineup (more on that later). The question is, can the likes of Frye, Hill, JRich and yes, Dragic step up again? PHX is smelling like roses now that it has finally extinguished its historical playoff nemesis the Spurs, but who are they kidding? This creaking Spurs team isn't the same team that tormented them in playoffs past, while a Portland team with an injury-hampered Brandon Roy managed to take them to 6 games, even stealing one in Phoenix. Granted, LA itself is banged up, with Bynum's swelling knee and Artest and Kobe all nursing some sort of injury. But Kobe is Kobe (and Kobe says he's still fuming over the 2007 & 07 eliminations dealt them by PHX), and Pau and Lamar are healthy and will definitely bother PHX's short-range attempts.
If you don't believe size matters, look at LAL's undersized opponents in the first 2 rounds. UTA was invincible at home, but without a true center, they gave up 2 straight at home for the LA sweep. Take out Game 4 in the LAL-OKC series (where a moody Kobe shot only 10 FG attempts and scored 12, just to prove a point), and we might very well have seen a 4-1 LA series win over OKC. Robin Lopez, you say? Yes, the PHX center is coming back for this game, and we all know what happens the first game when a player is reintegrated into a team's offense after a long time. Guy never was a factor in the 3 reg season games he played against LA anyway, notching 7.3 ppg and 5rpg averages. Not exactly a scoring or rebounding threat.
Lastly, if you like throwing around conspiracy theories, the next best thing to a LeBron-Kobe Finals showdown, now that the Cavs are out, would be LA-Boston Part II. David Stern wants no part of another Orlando ass-rape by LA like what happened last year.
Thus far in the playoffs, PHX has been a spotless 4-0 ATS as dog. I'm looking for that streak to break tonight vs LAL.
LA Lakers -6
All opinions welcome!
0
Hot Forum Topics
