Mak's Monday Mechanics

Hey fellas, showing good profit this weekend starting the week off strong.  Found some value in 3 games today, hoping to continue the progressive profit.  As always, wishing you guys the best of luck, not matter what side you are on.  Peace out - - - MAK

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS + 6.0 (-115) - - - The Warriors are a deceptively dangerous team at home in Cali.  The Warriors undoubtedly have the best fans in the NBA.  I mean what other city would consistently go to see a team that has been in rebuilding mode for the past 4 years.  Always very strong attendance numbers and that is due to the young run and gun roster they have.  Fans love seeing this team play.  Home court advantage will be at maximum effect tonight as the King will make his season debut in GS in front of a ruckas sold out crowd.  Lebron coming off a 40 point performance also played about 46 minutes.  Although it is only a 1+ hour flight I notice many teams really struggle flying from Oregon to Cali or Los Angeles.  I have kept an eye on this for 2 years.  The Cavs are a suspect 5-7 ATS on back to backs.  They have yet to cover all season on a back to back after a win and are 1-3 SU in their last 4 b2b games.  The Warriors on the other hand await teams like this.  Like a rottweiler ready to pounce on a tired bloodhound.  They live for these games, love playing in front of a vocal crowd.  They are on a roll at home 3-0 ATS and SU against Boston, Phoenix and Sacramento...not too shabby if you ask me.  If you dissect the last game vs GS@CLE it is clear that Cleveland tends to struggle defending the fast break and tempo of the Warriors.  They tend to get baited into playing GS's style of game rather then the their own.  Cleveland shot almost 60% the entire game.  J.J Hickson and Z (starting forward and C then) had perfect games. Lebron had 31 and 12 assists and Mo had a solid game yet the Cavs only won by 6 points??? Red flag right there, GS matches up well and especially with their added option tonight.  GRanted Shaq and Andersen did not play vs GS last time they met...however neither did Turiaf, Watson or Biedrins and I think they will be key tonight.  C.J is a solid guard off the bench and will help carry on the tempo.  Ronnie is a very very underrated defensive big man.  Small for a 5 man but he solid at the rim.  He has 12 blocks in the last 5 games and changes about 5-6 shots at the rim a game.  Anthony Randolph fractured his ankle last game and is gonzo for GS.  I think that allows Andris Biedrins to get back into his dominating big man role with GS.  He was a beast last year and I suspect bhim to slowly but surely return to elite big man status.  I think the Warriors have what it takes to beat the Cavs straight up in Cali tonight, but I will gladly take the generous points to the bank.

6 UNITS LATRELL "CHOKE ARTIST" SPREWELL - - -

UTAH JAZZ - 7.0 (-115) - - - I don't like the makeup of the Heat roster.  I think they are consistently the most inconsistent team in the NBA.  So very hard to read.  Some games they show up and surprise, other games they just fold.  This has always been Miami's way.  2 years ago Wade basically packed it in because of a rough start to the season.  Now all this moving and shaking is just fucking with Miami.  Mario Chalmers is pasted on the bench now and all off a sudden skip to my shithole Alston takes over the team?  Ridiculous.  Quentin Richardson as a starter is another joke.  Can't get a cheerio into a hoola-hoop.  Jermaine O'neal seems to be favoring that knee again, and Beasley who I thought was going to breakout as a star this season has taken a dip.  Miami has a weak bench, a week system and will not be able to handle the Jazz men in Utah on a back to back.  My x-factor for the Jazz tonight, tomorrow, yesterday and this entire season is a white boy by the name of Kyle Korver.  His ability to stretch the defense with his shot is a very rare commodity for Utah.  Since his return 3 games ago Korver has shot 13 of 15 with 4 three pointers.  He is a solid and very important to the success of this team in the long run.  My x factor tonight is AK47.  AK's never stick, always free-flowing with those bullets and that is what Kirilenko is doing lately.  He has 8 steals and 5 blocks in his last 3 games.  He is scoring with efficiency, rebounding and of course defending.  I think Deron Williams will actually outplay D Wade tonight.  Boozer, Milsap and Okur will own down low against a soft Heat front-court.  Guys like Brewer, C.J Miles and Wesley Mathews are solid role-players who always play well at home.  Utah is deeper and more focused right now.  Utah covers this low home spread.

5 UNITS KARL "STEROID PUMPING" MALONE - - -

PHILADELPHIA 76ERS - 1.0 (-115) - - - The 76ers roster is hands down better then the Hornets roster.  Straight up that is how I feel.  Looking at the records of these two teams it is a totally different story.  In my opinion the 76ers have the most deceptive overall record.  They are one team who is quite a bit better then their record shows.  I am not sold on the Hornets just yet.  Hottest team in the NBA my ass. This 6 game winning streak has been all CP3 and a whole lotta luck.  6 games they have won yes, granted quite an acheivement...not one of those game were won by more then 5 points.  I watched about 4 of those games and each and every one of them could have gone either way.  It wasn't really execution that won Orleans those games down the stretch, more like luck and Paul's ability to create an opportunity with his pass from nothing.  The Philly bench is 4 deep now and each player has their own attributes that impact the game.  Holiday, Maurice, Carney and my 6th man of the month Elton Brand.  Absence of A.I is no prob as Will Green always contributes efficiently.  Louis Williams, Iggy and Young will provide the offense tonight and Sammy will lay the law down law.  I suspect guys like Thornton, Peja and Devin Brown will struggle with their shot tonight.  Elton Brand has not faced the Hornets in a few years and I suspect his 25 + point performance to be the difference tonight.

4.5 UNITS DARRYL "BACKBOARD BREAKER" DAWKINS - - -
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MAK'S ML PARLAY/TEASER

SUNS ML
NUGGETS 1ST HALF ML
3 UNITS - - -

Tough card...BOL

wow.


your insight is well very insightful

i saw the hornets/wizards yesterday and the wiz just gave that game away.. it was sickening. The line is also very fishy with the winning streak of new orleans so reading your write up made me understand why.

like the warriors as well but im not sure I can go against the cavs after last night..

BOL mak

i love the GSW play...i remember like it was yesterday....last year when cavs visited GSW, LBJ hit a game-winning bucket at the buzzer...tGSW players were so pissed for that...now they will lwant some revenge imo...gl mak

Yes it is a tough card you are right.  I still feel I found the best value plays out there.  Could be wrong.  BOL to you as well.

Thanks nbafan, appreciate that a lot.  At least someone actually reads the write-ups and respects the insight.  That game was sad, Wiz had it but just seemed to stop caring at the end.  As for the line, I really didn't smell a lot of fish.  I expected Philly to be favored because I really think they are a better overall team then New Orleans.  I plan to ride the 76ers for a while, even if they do not prove their worth right away.  Best of luck bro.

That is true MadSkillz, I am certain they do not want to duplicate that heartbreaking loss and will come out strong.  I think Corey Maggatte is key tonight as well.  He is the type of player who if he puts his mind to it can match Lebron's agility and strength and actually defend him well.  Too bad Corey is an arrogant ball hog who just wants his or he could be a great defender.  Best of luck with your play bro, thanks for the post.

The first thing that jumped out at me was Latrell Sprewells name you should have put Latrell "thats not enough money to feed my family" Sprewell...lol

 

Other than that write ups are good but im against you on the Sixers today... BOL anyways bro...

Ah crap, you are right that would have been a better knickname for him :)  Honestly that is the best NBA quote ever.  I'll never forget that, what a douche.  Sixers are my lowest wager for a reason bro.  Hornets could take it, with CP3 and his magnificent play-making ability anything could happen.  Best of luck OB. 

As always D Town, thanks and best of luck to you as well.

What would your score prediction be Mak in that 6ers game. I'm leaning under. As you said, you suspect some slumping shooters from Orleans and we all know 6ers don't shoot the lights out from outside. They haven't hit 200 in their last 10 meetings together and I don't see it tonight

I'm seeing somewhere around 190-193 myself

Nice write up on Jazz....echoing my thoughts....thanks for your hard work

 BOL!

 

i think i took the hornets on emotion, believing that the 76ers can't finish a game, the way they blow leads and lose in the 4th qtr... gah... got me on the fence mak!!!

I really am not very good when it comes to totals but I am with you I def project this game going under however that line is pretty solid.  I am feeling both teams in the 90's but I also feel a close game.  Maybe something around 98 - 93 for the 76ers.  Best of luck with your total play bud, thanks for the kind words.

Thanks BOL to you as well.

PH emotion = gut.  If Hornets jumped off at you right away then Hornets should be the play.  76ers were my initial gut.  Capping the game you could really go either way.  It is more of a stay away game but due to the lack of other options on today's slate I added Philly.  Not a strong play for me, although I do believe they are the better team and at home which should equal a victory.  Best of luck bro.

 

i always do my over/unders based mainly on the point spread...

if it's high (-9+) i like the under, if it's close (-1 to -3) i like the over.

good luck today mak,
i wouldn't play philly because a little guy named cp3 likes to be the show 2nd half and put up 20+ points. =/

i love the warriors write-up.

Good luck tonight Mak !

Just a quick question. How come you're only getting -115 lines?
Are you adjusting the line by half points or is that the standard line at your sportsbook?

 

G    S T A T E

-----  on   da' FUEGO  though,

they've covered the last 10 vs. jazzzzzz

                        best2u

The CLE@GS game was the only one that jumped out to me -- and it did that the first sec I saw it. As you wrote the Warriors play fast and imo that is not good for a Cleveland team on a b2b... So far im with you on only the pts, but might jump on the ML in the last sec before game-time...
Was leaning Hornets, but BB isn't my strongest sport (not even close :p) as I like to watch hockey and football more... BUT so far i'v been picking up the game decent and is 4-0 with two 2-0 days and rarley enough half of them is totals (as I suck on o/u's..) Any advice on what to look for in BB matchups(?) or is the quick situation, rest, time-zone thing the way to go??
Btw, hope your right tho and my Sixers win ;D

BOL on your pick

im on Hornets...BOL