Low Post: 12/26 Suns @ Warriors

I hope everyone is enjoying the Holiday!

We are off a great win the other night with the OVER in the game between the Bucks and Wizards.

We have been on a terrific run in the NBA and will keep the hot streak going tonight with an outstanding NBA situational play when the Suns visit Golden State.

The play tonight has very strong historical backing and I think its a great situation for Golden State to win SU. Though I do recommend grabbing the points. I would wait as long as possible to get down as the public will pound the Suns following tonight's home blowout versus the Clippers (which everyone saw on national TV Christmas Day.)

Here is the low down:

The Suns, when playing on the road with 0 days rest off a game in Phoenix, are 0-7 ATS their last 7 tries. The Suns in this situation since March of 2007 are 1-10 ATS.

When the Suns play at Golden State with no days rest, after a game in Phoenix, are 0-5 SU and 0-5 ATS the last 5 situations.

To help make this play stronger, we note that...when the Warriors host a team who is playing on 0 days rest, and the Warriors are getting points...Golden State has won 6 consecutive times SU. The Warriors have covered ATS 8 of the last 10 going back to March of 2007.

The Suns have dropped 5 consecutive road games coming into this game and will be laying at least 3 (as of now) into this horrible situation for them.

Play on Golden State tonight +3 (or more!) as they get the outright win at home over the Suns.

Golden State +3

GL!

That was a nice call on the Wiz.

Thanks. We will see another situation like that this year. Probably more then once.

Hey man, great writeup as always .

Any thoughts about getting the under (234) for this one?

BOL!

im not sure about this one, might must play the under

nice analysis

No opinion on the total.

Here are my opinion plays for Saturday:

(1) Play the Bobcats vs. Thunder OVER 188.5 as the Hornets have played out of conference opponents OVER the total 7-0-1 the past 8 chances.  The Bobcats have gone OVER their last 4 straight games versus Western Conference teams. (Last Meeting) These two did hook up last season and go way under in OKC, but note that the Bobcats attempted 87 FG's in the game hitting a only ludicrous 29 of them.

(2) Play on the Buck's +3 at home against the Spurs. The Spurs hve historically been terrible at the Bucks going 2-11 ATS and during those 13 games only won 4 SU. In franchise history, if the Spurs are a favorite of 3 or less @ the Bucks, they have never won SU.

r u kidding me??


 i play for suns even though -7

Just FYI, my opinions are still awaiting pre-game shoot around injury info from tomorrow. I guess you would refer to them as leans. I am already on the Warriors as a play because the Suns  will arrive too late tonight to hold a shoot around in the AM.

 I already fairly certain, via my NBA source, that Biendris will indeed play in the game tomorrow for the Warriors. this will be a big moral booster for the Warriors as he is there best low post player and has been out over a month.

Super post.

The oddsmakers want you to be scared, that's what keeps them in business. Remember, the book is almost always left holding the unattractive side of a bet...they seem to make out OK over time.

  Phoenix plays at their worst in these situations. I could never  lay points into the teeth of a 1-10 ATS trend.

I like this play also m1. Great writeup and trends.

I'm also on the Bucks over the Spurs with you. .

yeah i do think warriors have a chance at winning...since there on a losing streak and bound to win somewhere

You will regret taking the under after the 1st qrt when the score is 38-35.....

..... I have seen warrior/suns games where the term "no defense" is an understatment..... the players actually let the other team shoot as quickly as they can just so they can get the ball back.....

Stay away from the total, if anything put $10 on the over just for fun.......

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Nice write-up M15525, thanks for the info about Beindrins......  

true but then the suns like to throw in their trademark 36 pt final quarter

yes, the suns have sucked in the 2nd half of road games the last month, but barbosa is back and that will make a huge difference in keeping nash fresh....... bet the under at your own risk!

 G ST 

wouldn't bet an under in this matchup no matter what the total was, but if you're going to bet it, you may as well go 1st half or 1st quarter because that's where most of the points will be scored

Wow, I am amazed how you can get such info. As usual, awesome write-up! Keep it up man.

 

 

Sadly (for me), this isn't true.  The Nuggets let the Suns cover as 8.5-point dogs in Denver on December 12th.