Jazz @ Mavs - Hmmm...

I think a lot of people are looking at this Jazz @ Mavs matchup tonight as one of those possible 'trap' games.  The type of game where people think they're going outsmart Vegas by not falling for the bait.  "A weak line?  Bah, it doesn't make sense!  I smell a trap!  Gimme the Jazz!"

I mean really now, after last night's ugly defeat at the hands of the Houston Rockets, how can anyone not wanna take the Mavericks in this spot.  The Jazz have looked pretty weak in their first 3 games of the year, and now they go up against a Dallas team that just pounded the world champion Lakers as well as knocking off the lowly Clippers(God I hate that team).  Also, let's not forget how awful the Jazz have been on the road over the last few years- excuse me...DECADE!

Let's take a look back just to last week.  The Mavericks defeat the Lakers handily and open as a -3.5 favorites against the Clippers.  Immediately threads start popping up on covers with people asking "Why is this line so low?" - "Mavs -3.5?  Explain?" etc etc etc.  People were thinking that his game had to be trap after what happened the night before.  But the line continued to rise and by game time closed at Mavs -5.  Even got as high as -5.5 at one point.  Now let's look at tonight.  You have people looking at this Utah/Dallas game thinking it could be a possible trap.  The line opened at -5 and has climbed to -6 already.  Interesting, no?!

Here's one more thing to consider.  The Jazz next game is against San Antonio.  They'll be at home and the game will be on TNT.  Now assuming the Jazz lose tonight which I think they will, how many do you think would risk any kind of money on them come Thursday?  Espcially when they see Jazz as favorites because make no mistake, the Jazz will be favorites in that game.  They'll be favorites of at least 4 or more against a Spurs team that many consider will contend with the Lakers for Western supremecy.  And so it goes.

Tonight is going to be one of those situations where people are too 'smart' for their own good.

Mavericks -5.5

Love your threads Chris but just wanna say couple things.  First off the Clip were up in that 4th and it was tied I believe with 3 minutes to go.  If you told me the score would be tied getting 5.5 at home with 3 and change to go I would say OK.  Didn't work out and it happens but if that situation is played out a 100 times with the same variables being equal the Clip cover that game 60%.  There was a couple calls that could've gone either way that didn't changing the entire complexion of the final minute.  Instead of shooting FT it's going the other way leading to 2 FT's.  But whatever my point is to bring that game up is not fair.

Way way to much overreaction here for 3 games being played over 82.  Jazz opening night loss they played well except last quarter and gave up late as they went cold, gonna happen especially on opening night, not a big deal.  Next game win at home look decent.  Now they lose one game and have an off night and they suck?  This is an overreaction that I see constantly is in sports gamblers mindset.  This line opened at 4.5 and was fair and now is at 6 and going up because of a bad 3rd game of the year!  This is nuts.  The Jazz may lose by 20 tonight but wouldn't be shocked the least bit by a straight up win.   Bye the way Lang is on them, he only hits %40 of his picks.  Just some thought's Chris, keep up the good work.

The chief said it. Injuries for Utah. Jerry Sloan doesn't play rookies, very often or for very long stretches. 3 games into the season for the Jazz and every rookie on the team has seen playing time. Anybody think Sloan is changing his ways after 22 years and over .600 winning record?

He's playing rookies out of necessity. Period. The Jazz are a whole different team when they have AK coming off the bench along with Milsap and Ronnie Price. They also miss Korver, a lot. He's not known as a defender, but he played with great tenacity last year and always sparked the Jazz when he entered games off the bench.

The front office mad a huge mistake when they matched Portland's offer for Milsap, thus telling Boozer (in a round about way) that he was no longer in the Jazz's future. I like the signing of Milsap but, they really should have dealt Boozer but I don't think anybody wanted him, to be honest. Now you have a situation with Boozer pressing really hard (too hard) and it's fucking with his head. He was booed last night everytime he screwed up. That is unlike a Utah crowd, but it's happening. Things are not right in Utah. Maybe they put it all behind them and come out big tonight, but I seriously doubt it.

Thanks 165.  Always appreciate your thoughts and advice on games.

DAL

GL

good job...Chris

That was one hell or a quarter by Dirk