Breaking down Nuggets/Lakers Game 1 & series

This series actually reminds me a lot of the 2004 Western Conference finals when a young Kevin Garnett and his Minnesota Timberwolves were defeated by the L.A. Lakers in six games.  That year the T-Wolves finally got out of the first round after years of disappointing early exits, as the addition of a few veteran guards (Cassell and Sprewell) helped put a young team over the top.  Sound familiar? 

To beat the Lakers at home you have to play absolutely perfect, focused basketball for 48 minutes.  There is no room for letdowns, lapses in concentration or temper tantrums.  Even if you let your guard down for two or three minutes, the Lakers will start spurting and go on an 8-0 run.  If you play bad for a full quarter, you’re probably not winning the game.  The reason Houston was able to steal Game 1 at Staples last series is because they’re such an organized, disciplined team that is capable of sustaining a high level of play (on the road) over the course of an entire game.  Are the Nuggets capable of doing likewise?  I don’t believe so.  I just don’t think they can play great for four straight quarters on the road without a few lapses.  Will they have flashes of brilliance?  Most certainly, but maintaining that is another story.    

As great as Denver was in the first two rounds, their dominance was mostly a product of  home-court advantage, something they will not have in this series.  Take away a blown call in Game 3 at Dallas, and the Nuggets would have lost three of their four playoff road games.  And that was against some extremely flawed teams.  One critical reason the Nuggets aren’t nearly as prolific on the road is due to the diminished scoring they receive from their supporting cast away from the Pepsi Center.  Players like JR Smith, Chris Anderson and Nene all have very drastic home/road splits in the post-season.  JR Smith averages 18 points at home, but only 13.7 on the road.  Nene goes for 16 and 8 at home, but only 7.2 and 6.5 on the road.  The Birdman swats 2.3 blocks, grabs 6.3 boards and scores 8.6 points at home, but on the road his numbers slip to 1 block, 5.6 boards and 6.3 points.  All three of these players are extremely volatile and rely on the energy of the home crowd to get them going.  They feed off that positive reinforcement.  Unfortunately, on the road you have to able to get yourself going because those 20,000 screaming fans aren’t around to cheer you on.  This will be a big question as the series goes on; can the Denver supporting cast provide enough production and reliability on the road?  We know they’ll do it at home, but doing it on the road is another story.

Another thing that should never be forgotten about the Nuggets is the combustibility factor.  They are still liable to blow up at any point, any time, anywhere.  Don’t be fooled by all those gushing features the media writes about how Chauncey Billups has changed everything.  Yes, he’s done an outstanding job of keeping his teammates sane and under control, but that doesn’t change the fact they’re still all crazy.  It’s easy to control your emotions when you’re up by twenty at home.  Doing it on the road when you’re down by twenty is a completely different thing.  And that’s usually when players like that do dumb stuff, when things aren’t going their way.  The Nuggets haven’t really faced any adversity so far in the play-offs.  Everything has been smooth sailing to this point.  How will they respond to their first true test?  Can they maintain their composure in a hostile setting?  It can all fall apart very quickly for this team if something bad happens early. 

With regards to match-ups, the Nuggets could have some problems against the Lakers.  Against teams like the Hornets and Mavericks, Denver had such a big advantage in athleticism and depth that they were able to simply wear down the opposition over the course of the game and series.  They won’t have the same luxury against the Lakers though.  Kenyon Martin guarding Paula Gasol could become a big issue for Denver.  I’ve seen Kenyon Martin up close and he’s not much more than 6’8.  Gasol is a legitimate 7-footer.  Even though Gasol is soft, he’s still got four inches and a huge length advantage.  Dahntay Jones is a very underrated defender, but he’s no Shane Battier.  Even though he’s a starter, he doesn’t play starter minutes.  In the series against the Hornets, Jones averaged 16.6 MPG, against the Mavs it increased slightly to 20.6 MPG.  Usually Jones plays the first seven or eight minutes of the 1^st and 3^rd quarter before JR Smith takes over off the bench.  But when Jones goes to the bench that means JR now has to guard Kobe.  And that’s just asking for trouble.  Kobe will post him up or use a series of ball and head fakes, and JR will start picking up a bunch of bad fouls.  So there’s a big trade-off there.  If they bring in Smith for Jones, they’re giving up defense for scoring.  I also think Trevor Ariza could have a big series guarding Carmelo.   

I’m still not a big Laker fan, but I know if they play the way they’re capable of playing on home-court, nobody can stay within ten points of them.  Is another half-hearted and lackadaisical performance possible tonight?  Without question.  This isn’t as much of a play on the Lakers as it is against the Nuggets.  If Denver doesn’t get off to a good start, and things don’t start falling their way, it can all unravel pretty fast for them.

Lakers -6