Posted:
#1
Hi Everybody,
I posted several times in January and mentioned that I was trying an approach with picking NBA games that seemed to be winning pretty consistently. I also wrote that if it continued to be profitable for the rest of the month, I would explain it for anyone who might be interested. Well, the final record for January was 24-16 (60%). Could have been better, but any time a winning percentage like that is achieved over an entire month, I feel it's worth exploring further.
With all that as background, here's the approach: When an NBA team falls 15 or more points short of spread, take them ATS in their next game (regardless of whether or not they are favorites, what the spread is, etc.). The theory behind this is that if a team underachieves badly in one game, they'll refocus and put in a better effort the next game. I know that doesn't always happen...but 60% is 60%! So for example, if a team was favored by 5 and they lost by 12, they fell 17 points short of the spread. If they were 4 point underdogs and lost by 19, that would be 15 points short. In both of those examples, that team would be selected in their next game. Hope that makes sense.
So, it's a new month. Starting from scratch, here are tonight's picks:
Washington +5
Philadelphia +4
New Orleans -2
Great luck to everyone tonight and throughout the month of February!!! ||clover.gif' border=0>
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