Posted: 4/25/2013 5:13:28 PM
I'm back to make some more AFL picks. I had a good week last week and I believe that my model should improve each week as I get more current data about the teams. I've been having alot of success picking ATS so far and O/U's have improved enough to release my first pick on a total. For anyone who read my post last week, the numbers in the brakets next to my pick are my form of confidence rating. Last weeks numbers should NOT be directly compared to this weeks numbers. I'm using 2 models to make my picks, the first one is current and the second uses info from the previous season. Last week I used the second models confidence numbers and this week and from here forward I will be using my more current model. I have projections for every game and I'll try to answer questions about any other "leans" that I have.
Here are the picks based on the opening lines:
1.Arizona Rattlers -17 (25.25)
2.Jacksonville Sharks +7 (21.02)
3.Clevaland Gladiators +4 (10.83)
4.San Antonio Talons -3 (10.07)
5.CLE vs UTAH Under 118 (9.62)
Bring the AFL lines back to Vegas!!