My UFC picks for UFC on Fuel TV 10 Werdum vs Nogueira

 3^rd RD TKO

1^st RD TKO

Neto over Smith 1^st RD Sub

 3^rd RD TKO

This is a rematch from 2006. Big Nog won the first fight via decision, but much has changed since then. Werdum has evolved more as an MMA fighter since then, and I don't see this going 5 full rounds. Both have great ground, but I actually think Werdum has the edge on the ground, but Nog has better boxing. Werdum cardio is not the greatest, but unfortunately I see Werdum winning under 5 rd. I hope I'm wrong because I would like to see Big Nog win.

Big Nog 10 years ago is not the same Big Nog that is fighting today. He cannot take the beat downs and pull the come from behind victories like before. Big Nog has been through some wars in his career, and I really think all this has taken a toll on him, and he's not the fighter he once was. The guy is a one of the all-time toughest fighters with a warrior spirit. I wish he would retire before he suffers anymore permanent damage. He was one of my favorite fighters back in Pride. (I posted this in someone’s forum, you might have read it before).

TUF 2 Brazil season finale was a good season, I’ve watched episode 1-11 w/subtitles. Patolino is a young explosive fighter who goes for the finish. All his pro fight ended with KO or submission in the 1^st RD, and only one going into the 2^nd RD. On the show he won a  KO against a bjj fighter and a decision vs striker.  He’s knows where he needs to take the fight to win, but his cardio is questionable. All but 1 fight have gone past the 1^st rd, and he looked gas when he was finishing his quarterfinal fight in the TUF house. 

Santos is Nova Uniao fighter and training partner with Aldo. He trains with top fighters and is a veteran in the game. He is 33 years old, and has fought in Japan and has experience on his side. A slick BJJ fighter who is not afraid to stand with others, he has some okay stand-up, but doesn’t have the best takedowns to display his ground game. He is tall and lengthy and reaches for a double leg and doesn’t have a penetrating shot like a wrestler. Santos might have problems getting the fight to the ground in the first round. Santos will have to weather the storm of the younger and explosive Patolino, but I think his experience will pull Santos through and Santos will win via sub 2^nd RD.

Let me try again, it did not want to post up???

Okay fight fans and our forum lady boy (ArtBell), these fight predictions are a little later than I expected. I noticed most people are posting picks for the main card and the more known fighters. The Brazilians have a hometown advantage, and I think they are really bringing in some sacrificial lambs for the Brazilians on this one. This card has many heavy favorites, but I don’t like this kind of odds for little returns.  I wanted to look at the whole card and see if there was some good picks at a decent value, so it took more time than expected to research the whole card. I had to search and find some of the previous UFC fights that I didn’t have, and I spent some time on youtube watching whatever recent footage I can find. After hours of watching fights, here are my predictions and my reasons. I’ll post my fight picks, and then the bets I like.

Main Card

Werdum  over Nogueira  3^rd RD TKO

Macario over Macario “Patolino” via Sub 2nd rd

Cavalcante over Silva 2^nd RD TKO

Silva over High via TKO 1st rd

Sarafian TKO over Mendez 1^st RD

Rony “Jason” over Wilkinson 2^nd RD TKO

Prelims

Assuncao over Lee via Dec

Pepey over Arantes 3^rd RD Sub

Alcantara over Silva via Dec

Hirota over Damm via Dec

Vemola over Magalhaes  1^st RD TKO

Neto over Smith 1^st RD Sub

 3^rd RD TKO

(I posted this in someone’s forum, you might have read it before).

TUF 2 Brazil season finale was a good season, I’ve watched episode 1-11 w/subtitles. Patolino is a young explosive fighter who goes for the finish. All his pro fight ended with KO or submission in the 1^st RD, and only one going into the 2^nd RD. On the show he won a  KO against a bjj fighter and a decision vs striker.  He’s knows where he needs to take the fight to win, but his cardio is questionable. All but 1 fight have gone past the 1^st rd, and he looked gas when he was finishing his quarterfinal fight in the TUF house. 

Santos is Nova Uniao fighter and training partner with Aldo. He trains with top fighters and is a veteran in the game. He is 33 years old, and has fought in Japan and has experience on his side. A slick BJJ fighter who is not afraid to stand with others, he has some okay stand-up, but doesn’t have the best takedowns to display his ground game. He is tall and lengthy and reaches for a double leg and doesn’t have a penetrating shot like a wrestler. Santos might have problems getting the fight to the ground in the first round. Santos will have to weather the storm of the younger and explosive Patolino, but I think his experience will pull Santos through and Santos will win via sub 2^nd RD.

Werdum  over Nogueira  3^rd RD TKO

This is a rematch from 2006. Big Nog won the first fight via decision, but much has changed since then. Werdum has evolved more as an MMA fighter since then, and I don't see this going 5 full rounds. Both have great ground, but I actually think Werdum has the edge on the ground, but Nog has better boxing. Werdum cardio is not the greatest, but unfortunately I see Werdum winning under 5 rd. I hope I'm wrong because I would like to see Big Nog win.

Big Nog 10 years ago is not the same Big Nog that is fighting today. He cannot take the beat downs and pull the come from behind victories like before. Big Nog has been through some wars in his career, and I really think all this has taken a toll on him, and he's not the fighter he once was. The guy is a one of the all-time toughest fighters with a warrior spirit. I wish he would retire before he suffers anymore permanent damage. He was one of my favorite fighters back in Pride. (I posted this in someone’s forum, you might have read it before).

Leo Santos over Macario “Patolino” 2^nd RD Sub

TUF 2 Brazil season finale was a good season, I’ve watched episode 1-11 w/subtitles. Patolino is a young explosive fighter who goes for the finish. All his pro fight ended with KO or submission in the 1^st RD, and only one going into the 2^nd RD. On the show he won a  KO against a bjj fighter and a decision vs striker.  He’s knows where he needs to take the fight to win, but his cardio is questionable. All but 1 fight have gone past the 1^st rd, and he looked gas when he was finishing his quarterfinal fight in the TUF house. 

Santos is Nova Uniao fighter and training partner with Aldo. He trains with top fighters and is a veteran in the game. He is 33 years old, and has fought in Japan and has experience on his side. A slick BJJ fighter who is not afraid to stand with others, he has some okay stand-up, but doesn’t have the best takedowns to display his ground game. He is tall and lengthy and reaches for a double leg and doesn’t have a penetrating shot like a wrestler. Santos might have problems getting the fight to the ground in the first round. Santos will have to weather the storm of the younger and explosive Patolino, but I think his experience will pull Santos through and Santos will win via sub 2^nd RD.

Cavalcante over Silva 2^nd RD TKO

I’m willing to bet the house that one or both guys will fail the post-fight drug test, haha. Silva an aggressive striker who likes to move straight forward and had a hard time solving a fighter that uses angles and a fighter he cannot bully. He looked good against Vera, but he has had a long lay-off on and off due to illegal substance post fight drug test (twice). He left BTT and is training with the Blackzillians, which I think was a bad move. 

Feijao is a heavy handed hitter with good takedown defense, but he has been KO’d before. Feijao has KO’d many opponents and I believe he will add Thiago Silva to that list. I am taking Feijao via TKO  2^nd rd.

Silva over High via TKO 1st rd

High is a Strikeforce veteran who is a wrestler holds wins over Sakurai and Jordan Mein. Many believe he will implement the Fitch game plan, but he is no Fitch. Silva is better rounded fighter and the Fitch fight was a lesson learned. I’m sure he has patched up the holes that Fitch exposed. I’m taking Silva via 1^st rd TKO.

Sarafian TKO over Mendez 1^st RD

Sorry, but I could not find much on Mendez, except that he has many odds against him tonight. He is making his UFC debut and has never fought any UFC vets and is coming of a 13 month layoff.

Sarafian was a TUF finalist but pulled out due to injury. He was explosive, powerful, and has KO power that he displayed in the TUF series by knocking out Moraes and finishing the other 2 fighters. Sarafian lost to C.B Dolloway (split decision), but was able to display some ground game along the way.

Rony “Jason” over Wilkinson 2^nd RD TKO

Wilkinson was a TUF Smashes fighter who pulled out due to injury. Wilkinson is a submission guy, but has weak takedowns (from YouTube videos I found).

Rony Jason is a Team Nog product and is very well rounded. Rony is the TUF season 1 winner and has 1 UFC win via KO over Sicilia. I see Rony Jason picking him apart on the feet and getting the TKO in the 2^nd rd.

Assuncao over Lee via Dec

Lee a bjj fighter who I do not see submitting Assuncao. Assuncao will shut down any submission attempts and will pick him apart for a decision.

Pepey over Arantes 3^rd RD Sub

Pepely is TUF finalist and has a UFC win over Viera (split decision). Pepey is a BJJ black belt who has an aggressive ground game (guard) and likes to swing open and wildly hooks which leaves openings for a good counter striker. He likes to pull guard, but not always the best thing to do unless you got a good active guard.

Arantes is another Chuteboxe product and has an aggressive striking style, but he also has good ground game. Arantes had a draw with Viera and has only lost to Rony Jason in 2009.

Alcantara over Silva via Dec

Undefeated “Buscape” Silva is a Chuteboxe product who is making his UFC debut. He holds a win over UFC veteran Chris Wilson. He has finished most fights via submission, but also has good stand-up (southpaw/orthodox). Buscape likes to use the single to get the fight to the ground and display his ground game. But he does take a lot of leg kicks and this takes a toll on a fighter’s pep, and I think the bigger Alcantara will wear Silva down and finish in the 3^rd Rd or get the decision.

But this is the first time Alcantara cut to 170lbs, but he didn’t look too dry and sucked up at the weigh-ins so that a good thing. Alcantara has a UFC win against MT fighter Prado via kneebar at light heavy weight. Alcantara took the fight on short noticed and went up a weight class and finished the fight. I’m taking Alcantara via decision.

Hirota over Damm via Dec

Damn is MMA vet who has been around fighting in many organizations, from strikeforce, IFL and recently on TUFF. He pulled out due to injury (undefeated in the house). He is a slick bjj guy with decent stand-up (when he is the aggressor), but his best chances I think are on the ground, but he will have a hard time getting Hirota down.

Hirota is a vet that most people remember due to the Aoki arm break finger flipping incident. But that was the only time Hirota was submitted, and Damm is not at Aoki’s level so I see it hard for Damn to submit Hirota. Hirota has decent boxing and he is a good wrestler, and will look to use his sprawl and brawl and maybe some ground and pound. I see this fight going to decision with Hirota getting the nod.

Vemola over Magalhaes  1^st RD TKO

Magalhaes is a BJJ ace, but Vemola I think will over whelm Magalhaes with his wrestling, heavy hands and ground and pound. Vemola is a former heavyweight and has brought that power with him.

Neto over Smith 1^st RD Sub

Smith is an aggressive striker making his UFC debut against the BJJ ace. Smith is lengthy and likes to swing wildly for the fences and finish the fight early. He is well rounded and has finished 8 fights via TKO/KO and 8 via submissions. His last fight in Strikeforce he was tapped out by Roger Gracie in the 2^nd rd.

Neto is a BJJ ace, who will look to weather the storm of heavy handed smith. Neto has faced hard hitting UFC vet Falcao and took a beating for the 1^st RD and part of 2^nd, but was able to come back and win via Americana/keylock. Neto has fought in Japan and is not new to big crowds.  I don’t like his reaching double leg takedowns so this can be an issue getting the fights to the ground. Neto is coming off a 15 month lay-off and this can affect his performance. But fighting in front of the home crowd will also give a little extra drive.

Neto can get KO’d in the 1^st, but I see Smith getting the UFC  Neto via submission  in the 2^nd rd.

**Neto can get KO’d in the 1^st, but I see Smith getting submitted by the UFC newcomer Neto via submission  in the 2^nd rd.**

Disregard the first 2 post, something went wrong.