ufc 158

initial plays are Condit $80 and even $ and GSP on the tail end of about 5 parlays (-450 to -500)

GSP/Diaz - This is not an easy fight, none are, but I think this will be one of GSP's easier fights lately. Geaorges wont get stuck in a stand up battle with Diaz, though I think he may hit a run a bit. But Diaz should spend most of the fight on his back, and I don't think he will come to close to pulling off a sub from his back. Despite GSP's lack of finishing, and Diaz's iron chin, I think GSP may get a TKO stoppage here. If he gets enough GnP, and perhaps opens up a cut or two, the ref may step in.... Given both their histories, prob not, but I think it could happen

Ellenberger/Marquart - I don't have a great feel for how this one will end. I haven't been overly impressed by either recently. You don't know what Marquart will show up. I don't see Elly being agressive enough to get a KO. But more than likely he follows a safe gameplan, gets some take downs and out points Nate for a decision W

Condit/Hendricks - I wish this was a 5 rounder - it should be a beauty. I think the Hendricks train comes to a stop. I don't see Carlos getting KO'd like Kampmann or Fitch. I think Hendricks best chance to win is by takedowns and control along the cage, but I don't think he will employ that startegy. Condit is very smart. He's very determined.And he's very well rounded. He will fight the fight he has to to win, like he showed vs Diaz. Even if he has to hit and run, and stay out of the way of Johnny's big bombs. Condit by decision

Camozzi/Ring - In my mind this has to go to decision. Two real durable guys. Coinflip - I can see either guy slidin by

Mein/Miller - I am really interested in this fight - Mein is a good prospect, and this is a perfect test. Miller won't roll over for anyone. I think he may have the experience factor to gring out a decision W

Dillishaw/Tamura - Dillishaw by complete control

Makdessi/Cruickshanck - very impressed by both of their latest performances. I thought Makdessi was avergage at best until he controlled Stout with that jab. Yet Cruicksank has a lot of stand up tools. I think the Detroit Superstar to win. Probably a decsion, but he may get a late KO

more later

Great thoughts, I'm taking a shot on that GSP TKO prop myself, it's a real possibility that he just smashes Diaz badly and cuts him up.  I also wouldn't be surprised to see GSP land some huge shots on the feet, and Diaz has been dropped by a bunch of guys.  Bendo almost KO'd Nate with that punch, could see similar stuff here..

Ricci/Fletcher - I'll take Ricci by sub in the 3rd, but I really don't know enough to make an educated decision

Cote/Voelker - I like an ITD bet, but I'm not too quick to jump on Cote. He iron chin may not be iron any more. Props to Sakara's boxing, but I think Cote got wobbled a little easier than I would have liked

Elkins/Carvahlo - I really like Elkins here to do his smothering for a W. I have him in a couple parlays already

Roop/Duran - I am thinking Roop as a dog at this point. He has faced some tough opponents in his losses. His reach will be huge

I have been running hot in NHL this week, after being very patient for most of the season. Over the past 10 days, I have tied many bets to GSP, and now Elkins and Dillishaw. Love all 3 on saturday, to win in somewhat similar fashion

dilli/GSP/Ricci/Nate  $10 wins $35

dilli/ricci/story  $45 wins $40