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UFC on Fuel 1

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Posted: #1
2012 MMA Record: 14-20 (+9.72u)

Well continuing in last year's style, the record gets worse but the units keep going up   Here's what I like for UFC on Fuel so far:

Stephan Struve +125
3u to win 3.75u 

Diego Sanchez +270
2u to win 5.4u

I didn't find Herman all that impressive in the Einemo fight, it was a flurry away by either guy for the win.  And Struve, I just love betting the guy as a underdog, he had Barry as soon as it hit the ground, and against Browne he was finding his range and doing well in the standup until he got caught. 

And for the main event, I'll gladly take Diego at +270 in a 5 round fight against a guy who is known to gas.  Ellenberger has some hard brutal striking, and could make a mess of Diego early, but I like the odds in what should be a grinding fight.
 
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Posted: #2

i've been thinking the same on struve, without knowing the line. especially with einemo looking so bad against russow. struve has been getting better everyfight. still only early 20's.

not diggin diego though, but i see your point. he is like the terminater

 
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Posted: #3
Hey guys.  Be advised that the Sanchez vs. Ellenberger fight is three rounds.  It will not be five.  The organization is picking which main events to fit the different round criteria.  
 
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Posted: #4
Thx Nicky. That I didn't kniw
 
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Posted: #5
No ctm not Diego Sanchez     Just look at Ellenberger form right now my man this fight ends round 1 .  I rarely disagree with you and really hates to lay juice but Diego   have no chance   
 
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Posted: #6 

Straight wager 107970454-1 posted on Monday, Feb 6 2012 3:57AM was deleted on Monday, Feb 6 2012 4:49PM.

Fighting - 1001 Diego Sanchez +270 for Game
 
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Posted: #7
**CANCELLED THE DIEGO WAGER**

5dimes had this listed as a 5 round fight.  I spoke to Tony on 5dimes (first time I've talked directly to him, pretty nice guy despite what I've heard), found a few links confirming that it's a 3 rounder and he cancelled my wager, and offered me a no-juice line on anything on the board in return! 

 
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Posted: #8
That was very smart.  Diego will be a human heavy bad next week.
 
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Posted: #9
Yeah I think you guys are right about this one.  It just looked like a good play if it were a 5 rounder, a tough cardio-freak like Diego going against Ellenberger, he could have taken over in the second half of the fight assuming he survives the first half.

But he gets hit pretty often and against Ellenberger that may be a death sentence
 
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Posted: #10
If you can get any bet I've seen benavidez at -800 on his next fight. Wtf up with that? Is that the best guy ufc can find for him?
 
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Posted: #11
I'm actually really big on Ellenberger so nice to see you back away from Sanchez.

If you like Struve, I think a sub prop or ITD would be the play. Or fight to not go the distance, because Herman will win by KO or Struve by sub.
 
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Posted: #12
sanchez & herman...
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by sawman:

If you can get any bet I've seen benavidez at -800 on his next fight. Wtf up with that? Is that the best guy ufc can find for him?


Since it is the start up of the 125lb division...pretty much that is the best they can do...
 
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Posted: #14
Watching more and more video on Herman you can see that his knees are a huge factor in his striking and rhythm, against 6'11" Struve they'll be pretty much negated.  And Struve isn't the type to dive in for a double leg or anything. 

And yeah I agree HOFF, unfortunately that distance prop is up to -425 now!  There's been a few more lines released on 5dimes, I took Struve ITD at +177.

Also Ellenberger itd at +217 looks like value to me, Diego's been dropped in a number of fights now and against weaker strikers than Ellenberger.  We all remember what he did to Shields, and he could've gotten a ref stoppage in the first round vs Condit.. still not going to play anything on this fight yet though

 
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Posted: #15
Sorry guys, I went full retard on the main event.  When I saw the line get this high the other day it pretty much determined my play on the fight..

Diego Sanchez ITD +1720
2u to win 34.4u

Ellenberger ITD +175
2u to win 3.5u

Miocic + Dillashaw
4u to win 3.1u

The Diego line is down to +777 now, so I feel better about betting a whole 2u on it!  I started with 0.5u, then when the line didn't move for 15 minutes or so I couldn't resist. 

Obviously a huge long shot considering how invincible Ellenberger has looked recently, but come on.  I have to hope Diego is in great shape, Ellenberger gasses, and Diego finds an opportunity of some kind.  May very well be out 4 units on this one though, hopefully Diego will kill or be killed.

Anyways yeah I think that's gonna do it for my card, good luck everyone
 
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Posted: #16

i'm taking a long look at watson. i thought he won that split decision, and his size is a tough tool to deal with. struve like limbs.

since you're taking miocic this far in advance i'll take a good look at that too.

good luck with these ones

 
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Posted: #17
Very cool of your sports book to do that! Gl on the rest of your card!
 
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Posted: #18

sawman   gl either way!

Thanks deserted gl to you as well  

Adding one more parlay (prelim special), here's the final list:

Struve +125
3u to win 3.75u

Struve ITD +177
1u to win 1.77u

Sanchez ITD +1720
2u to win 34.4u

Ellenberger ITD +175
2u to win 3.5u

Miocic + Dillishaw
4u to win 3u

Magalhaes + Roberts + Brookins
1.5u to win 4.95u

 
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Posted: #19

i like all your plays. you may convince me on dillishaw. I'm looking at magalhaes too.

I really like struve. i don't understand why he's a dog. been wrong many times befroe, but see him as the better fighter

 
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Posted: #20

yeah Sawman I like Herman, just really feel like he's in for a wake-up call  

 
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Posted: #21
ITD? Probably something obvious.  But what does that mean.
 
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by randognsac:

ITD? Probably something obvious.  But what does that mean.

inside the distance
 
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Posted: #23
 
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Posted: #24
Gl bro, I'm on Diego as well, hope he gets the finish for ur prop!
 
 
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Posted: #25
GL ctm
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