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Author: [Mixed Martial Arts] Topic: Capping Fights
sawman send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 1/24/2012 1:27:00 PM

sorry to start a couple threads unison....

there are several cappers on this forum that I really respect. Johnny, CTM, Whipton, MR219, Sharpstick are my favs, but I'm probably leaving a few out.

I am a real amateur when it comes to capping, and I was hoping to get some advice on how you track fighters. I got caught up in UFC when they started TUF. I don't know if I had even heard of Pride until then. As far as tracking fighters, I only started taking notes about a year ago. And even now I essentially write out about a sentence on each fight. Most of my capping is done by pure memory, with the help of Sherdog, MMA Junkie, 5 Ozs... Total amateur hour, I know.

Any advice you stars can give me?

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#2
Posted: 1/24/2012 3:10:36 PM
honestly thats all i do. wiki their mma history, listen and read their interviews around fight time to see where their heads at, and watch their last couple of fights to see what they got and if they have evolved as a fighter.

then they're are little rules i go by : guys that drop weight get better, guys that move up are weaker, for the older fighters once they drop the the retirement word in an interview i fade the dude the exception being jorge rivera, mma-math works more then ppl think. etc..
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#3
Posted: 1/24/2012 4:06:14 PM
I am not the capper many of these guys are.  I'm by no means technical.  I am fairly new to betting MMA.  However I have been a fan and have watched the sport for a long time.  I would say I have watched the sport for about 7 or 8 years but have only bet it for the last year or so. 

Some thoughts I generally have are:

-Value is way overrated when you are just betting for fun or are betting smaller amounts.  I like to look at lines and like to watch them rise or fall throughout the week.  But when it comes down to it I'm trying to pick winners.  -140 or -170 doesn't matter a whole lot when I am betting 100 bucks.  It isn't going to make me not play a guy I like to win the fight.  Obviously if you are better more for income or are betting a ton of fights...then value is a lot more in play.

-To bet MMA well you need to have a book that allows parlays.  This coattails off the point above.  If I want better value in say Nick Diaz coming up.  Say -175 doesn't cut it for me.  I would parlay him with Sonnen.  Sonnen's odds aren't very good, but they really shouldn't be.  Bisping virtually has very little chance.  If you don't like Sonnen to win, then you could use Kos vs. Mike Pierce(whatever that line will be).  But to sum it up, I think parlaying is a great way to better the value of a bet. 

-The UFC knows what they are doing.  It is not to say it is fixed.  But if they are really pushing a fighter to be a star or pushing a future fight...they will give fighters favorable matchups.  Examples include:

 Bisping in almost any fight he gets.  Even the Maia fight was a great matchup for him.  Now he had to step n to fight Sonnen and the UFC really couldn't protect him.  They needed to protect the card.

Rashad beating Phil.  The UFC wants Rashad/Jones.  It is a storyline fight.  Will sell well.  They know full well Phil has a chance to bet him...but they also know full well that it is a great matchup for Rashad. 

We all know the UFC wants Silva/Sonnen 2.  Look who they gave Sonnen.  Mark Munoz.  A guy who really doesn't have great hands.  And who is a wrestler but not as good of a wrestler as Sonnen.  GREAT MATCHUP for Sonnen. 

-Last, don't bet against GSP, Anderson, or Jon Jones.  Or anyone that genuinely looks like the next stud of MMA.  Few qualify for this but they are easy to see from a mile away.  Anyone who bet against GSP or Anderson Silva the last 3 years has just wasted money claiming that there was "value".  Anyone not thinking Jon Jones was all that, even though he hasn't been tested yet in the UFC just wasted their money.  The people who say "value" in Machida or Rampage.  Basically why throw away money?  Why not just parlay these guys or just bet these guys and make easy money?

You can look back through the last several events.  The last time a decent sized underdog lost a main event fight was about exactly a year ago.  Guillard beat Dunham who was like -240.  Not even a huge underdog.  Last real PPV main event big favorite to lose was Machida losing to Rampage at UFC 123!  And that fight could have went either way. 

The moral is, it is fact.  Or at least has been fact for a while that main event big favorites just win.  The last real big dog to pull out a main event win was Edgar's wins over Penn.  You have to recognize these guys from a mile away.  Aldo was supposedly going to lose to Mendez, yet his worst performances produced 49-46 decision wins.  People have thrown a lot of money away on picking the "valued" dog. 

In the end I just watch a lot of MMA.  Read a lot of MMA.  And look at the matchups of the fight.  I play it out in my head.  I favor wrestlers if things are close.  I stay away from HW fights for as much as I can.  I stay away from guys I have never seen fight.  Or at the very least I go back and watch at least 2 or 3 of their last fights before I even think about betting them.
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boberts427
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#4
Posted: 1/24/2012 4:08:02 PM

dont use mmath

dont bet because you like a guy or because the he is from your town

don't lay juice on sub-par fighters

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#5
Posted: 1/24/2012 4:12:11 PM

jonny you got some good theories in your head man

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#6
Posted: 1/24/2012 4:19:03 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jonnyg4508:

 

People have thrown a lot of money away on picking the "valued" dog. 


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#7
Posted: 1/24/2012 6:12:32 PM
I will add more later, but the one thing you need to drill in your brain is no matter how big of a fan you are, or how much you know about a certain sport, it doesn't equate to positive return.

Pretty much just because anyone is a die hard fan of a sport, doesn't mean they'll be good betting it.  

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#8
Posted: 1/24/2012 6:16:10 PM
johnny is right on

i hate when i see a guy place a bet because he sees value in the line knowing the guy will most likely lose

fawk the odds pick the winners

try staying away from  UFC debuts, unless you're betting low units
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#9
Posted: 1/24/2012 7:50:28 PM

gsp is coming off acl surgery. he realies mostly on speed and agility(unlike jds/mcl) so there is a good chance that he will not be the same fighter.

it may have just been his competition in pride but shogun never looked the same after entering the ufc and his acl surgery.

by reading some of his comments, i believe that mr219 actually has fight experience which probably explains his successful track record.

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#10
Posted: 1/25/2012 1:19:38 AM
I just simulate the fight in Undisputed 2010 and bet according to the outcome..

THAT would be amateur hour!  You give reasons for all your plays sawman and they're always logical.

Anyways:  Watching tape is big, it really helps you envision the fight playing out.  I find you get a better feel for fighters as you go along, so I really like to bet on/against fighters I've already got alot of betting experience with.  I'll read play by play at the very least.. and if you see a glaring weakness in someone, try not to just ignore it (like Guillard's sub defence being a huge, glaring, recurring issue.)  Personally, I am guilty of ignoring Crocop's obviously shot chin and losing on him way too many times.

Oh yeah, and on top of those sites you mentioned (I check out sherdog and mmajunkie every day), you should read other MMA betting forums, there's 3 or 4 other decent ones out there and there is PLENTY of great insight out there from other cappers.  One guy I always check out is ufcfan4 (posts on sherdog), he posts in depth write-ups before every event and they are solid, just great info.  So yeah I literally read ALL the input there is, watch the videos myself, and watch the interviews. 

The interviews are great I find.  They say the hardest thing to handicap in sports is emotion, and with mma especially that's a big factor.  What's going on in their life?  Where are they at in their career, and are they legitimately motivated?  What have they been saying?  I'd have a hard time betting on Forrest Griffin nowadays.

Also the lines are important obviously.  Value is a pretty big thing if you're doing this every event.  For a $100 bet, -140 and -170 is a big difference.   And you gotta be willing to lock in a bet early, which is something I always used to hate to do, but it can make a huge difference.  Josh Neer at +120 instead of -180!  I check out bestfightodds.com regularly. there is also some great value to be found on prop bets, but 5dimes is getting a little tighter on those.
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#11
Posted: 1/25/2012 3:27:55 AM
Try just betting your best 2-3 fights/props or whatever per card, it will fade out all the maybe/iffy picks
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#12
Posted: 1/25/2012 9:16:10 AM
Finishers are also a big deal when it comes to picking the right side.  I see a lot of guys on each card that are huge favorites and can't finish a fight.  Also, another angle is Asian fighters coming over for the first time.  They usually have a tough fight and end up losing.  Just a couple of thoughts.  Nicky
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#13
Posted: 1/25/2012 10:40:29 AM

Sawman, this was a great post as I am in the same boat with you. I just using my covers account last week on the UFC on FX card. I came on the site because of MR219. Had a buddy that would always rave about his UFC picks, so I wanted to see what the site was all about and I love it.

The few things I have always done when capping fights before is watch tape of the fighters previous 3 fights nothing past that and watch Ariel Helwani interviews before the event. He seems to be the best at getting into the fighters mode and emotional state before the fight.

In the end it is still a fight and a KO can happen at any time. I only been on here about a week, but you seem to know your stuff in your post. Sometimes a gut instinct works better than knowing all the stats and how you think a fight will play out. Good luck going forward man.

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#14
Posted: 1/25/2012 11:43:04 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ctm1985:

I
Also the lines are important obviously.  Value is a pretty big thing if you're doing this every event.  For a $100 bet, -140 and -170 is a big difference.


It really depends what and how you are betting.  If you are trying to play for income and need a system to get you consistent, mechanical, calculated earnings over a long course of time...then sure. 

If you are betting 500-1000 bucks a bet...sure.

Maybe I'm one of the few that have experienced this.  But in my short time better I didn't do as well in a time I was "searching" for value.  The difference between -170 and -140 on a 100 dollar bet is 12 dollars.  Is that "big" if you are betting for recreation/fun/trying to earn a few bucks for a trip you want to take?

Say Chuck Liddell is -140 and I REALLY like him to win.  But for whatever reason don't pull the trigger that nigh.  Next day it is -170 and that is where it stays.  Is that going to make me not bet him?  over 12 bucks?    I look at it like I just lost a potential 59 bucks because it wasn't "value".

Sure, if the line is +120 vs. -180...it is obviously a difference.  But -140 to -170 isn't a big deal in $100 bets.  It has made me miss out on more guys and "winners" I liked rather than made me money over the course of the year.    To me value is very overrated in the sort of betting I do.  Which is 50-150 per bet.  More towards 50 and 100 dollar bets. 

I can live with missing out on the 12 bucks because of the new line.  I can't live with missing out on fighters I like to win because their line doesn't have as much "value".
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#15
Posted: 1/25/2012 11:43:15 AM

thanks fellas. I appreciate your time and insight. I love this sport and i love betting it. i make some great plays, but still too many dumb bets. all the debate that we put together often leads to some obvious plays even if you're not believing it at some point. On the flipside, like a lot of sports, 2 really good cappers can be on opposite sides.

 

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#16
Posted: 1/25/2012 12:53:03 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jonnyg4508:



It really depends what and how you are betting.  If you are trying to play for income and need a system to get you consistent, mechanical, calculated earnings over a long course of time...then sure. 

If you are betting 500-1000 bucks a bet...sure.

Maybe I'm one of the few that have experienced this.  But in my short time better I didn't do as well in a time I was "searching" for value.  The difference between -170 and -140 on a 100 dollar bet is 12 dollars.  Is that "big" if you are betting for recreation/fun/trying to earn a few bucks for a trip you want to take?

Say Chuck Liddell is -140 and I REALLY like him to win.  But for whatever reason don't pull the trigger that nigh.  Next day it is -170 and that is where it stays.  Is that going to make me not bet him?  over 12 bucks?    I look at it like I just lost a potential 59 bucks because it wasn't "value".

Sure, if the line is +120 vs. -180...it is obviously a difference.  But -140 to -170 isn't a big deal in $100 bets.  It has made me miss out on more guys and "winners" I liked rather than made me money over the course of the year.    To me value is very overrated in the sort of betting I do.  Which is 50-150 per bet.  More towards 50 and 100 dollar bets. 

I can live with missing out on the 12 bucks because of the new line.  I can't live with missing out on fighters I like to win because their line doesn't have as much "value".


I just remember when I used to bet hockey (or anything really) every single day of the week, betting $100 - $300 per day on 5dimes, really blew my mind when I compared lines to Pinnacle.  Probably a $40-$50 per day difference, which is alot throughout just one week.  That is with more volume though..

The only way I'd say it's reasonable to ignore lines just because you really like a guy is if you never bet regularly, and deposited just to bet on one guy you were sure of, or something.  And a 30 cent shift in the line won't make me just not bet on a guy, but I probably will bet less.  Like earlier this week when putting together my bets, I was planning on 280/200 on Rashad at -140.  Now he's -175 and I really don't want to pay the extra $70 just to make that bet, so I'm either not going to bet that much or put him in some kind of parlay.  It goes both ways though.. I already liked Weidman at -170, when I saw him down to -140 I locked in a bigger bet than I had planned.  So yeah, personally the line moves do influence how I bet quite a bit.

When I used to bet $20 a game I thought everyone going on and on about value was a little silly, because that was only like $1 or $2 difference to me.  But if you bet on anything regularly I would always take the lines/value into consideration.  Just think of it like that $12, on that one bet, is the difference between 2 extra drinks on your vacation
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#17
Posted: 1/25/2012 2:11:42 PM

Jonny, very-very-very nice information in your first post on this thread. The boosting of fighters and dictating their opponents, as done moreso in boxing, was great information for someone who doesn't bet or is new to MMA. 

That would be one of my top pieces of advice on betting MMA.

My quick points, from an MMA head since day one, and betting since betting was introduced in this sport.

1. Remember, the gloves are alot smaller, and anyone deemed worthy of stepping in the ring has a punchers chance.  Therefore, NEVER, NEVER empty your account or bankroll on one fight, no matter how much you like it.  If you REALLY LIKE IT, you're probably laying odds that far outweigh the dividens.

2. Styles, styles, styles.  They do make fights.  The best rewards betting this sport has given me have been to take a fighter dangerous off his back.  It seems the last year has produced far more fights that have started and ended standing up, yet you've always got to count on the fight hitting the ground at some point.  Guys that actually ATTACK off their back have been money making machines for me, regarding closely lined fights.

3. Career sweet spots.  They have to start somewhere, and usually end at some point, but ride them while you can.  Some are short lived, some last longer.  Some end the fight you jump on them, others pay long term dividens.  Two fighters, actually in the same camp, who are in definate career "sweet spots" are Nick Diaz and Gilbert Milendez.  I can go back 3 fights on each of these guys and I see nothing at all that would indicate me putting a dime against either of these guys right now. 

Thanks for starting this thread.  It has yielded some great input, definately some i will put in my weapons cache'......

Thanks and GL to all.......

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