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UFC 138 - Rare 10 Star Dog Play!!!

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Captain
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Posted: #1
YTD Record:
Overall: 110-97-1, +77.60 units 
UFC: 85-77-1, +59.75 units 
Strikeforce: 13-11, +10.50 units 
SF Challengers: 4-2, +2.35 units 
Bellator: 8-7, +5.0 units 
Final 2010 Record: 115-119-3, +11.25 Units 
Final 2009 Record: 80-82-1, +23.75 Units 
 
Looking to bounce back after a very bad UFC 137.  I have a very rare 10 star dog play.  For those of you have been following me for the past couple of years, you will remember that these plays are very rare, but almost always cash.  I believe the 10 star dog plays are something like 5-2 over the past few years...
 
Here it is:
 
1.  Brad Pickett (+131) over Renan Barao.  Risking 10 units to win 13.1 units.  I really believe that Brad Pickett is better than Barao at pretty much all facets of the MMA game and has fought the tougher competition between the 2, especially over the last couple of years.  This is a huge step up for Barao.  Yes, he has an impressive record, but barely a notable victory on his resume.  The only way I see Barao winning is if he catches Pickett in a submission, but I believe Pickett's submission defense is too good.  I honestly believe that Pickett will keep the fight standing and pick apart Barao to get a decision.  Pickett could also make this a ground fight, and control Barao with GnP for 3 rounds.  Either way, I see Pickett coming through for us in his home country!!!
 
2.  Parlay of Mark Munoz over Chris Leben and Chris Cariaso over Vaughan Lee.  Risking 5 units to win 5 units.
 
3.  TBA
 
4.  Anthony Perosh (+300) over Cyrille Diabate.  Risking 3 units to win 9 units.  If Perosh can take Diabate down, he will win by submission, as Diabate's takedown and submission defense is pretty brutal.  If Perosh cannot take him down, he will get destroyed!!!  Tread cautiously if you are blindly tailing...
 
5.  Rob Broughton (+135) over Philip De Fries.  Risking 1 unit to win 1.35 units.
 
6.  John Maguire (+120) over Justin Edwards.  Risking 1 unit to win 1.2 units.
 
7.  Papy Abedi (+300) over Thiago Alves.  Risking 1 unit to win 3 units.
 
I will be posting at least one more play in the morning (Play #3).  Waiting to see if a couple of lines will move in my favour over night.  I might also have a couple of total plays as well.
 
BOL to everyone with your plays!!!
 
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Posted: #2
Like Pickett +130 and Munoz as parlay material.

I'm not so sure any totals are going to be made available for betting outside of the main event. This is the least amount of props I've seen available for a UFC card in at least the last 4 years. Card starts in 9 hours and no props on 5dimes, Pinnacle, or Bodog
 
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Posted: #3
Pickett and Perosh. I think this is one of those cards that you could blindly bet every dog and end up ahead.
 
All-Star
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Posted: #4
glad to see you on pickett. gonna be a big one for me as well
 
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Posted: #5
thanks for the 10 star tip.  Good luck today!!
 
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Posted: #6

FINAL CARD:

1.  Brad Pickett (+131) over Renan Barao.  Risking 10 units to win 13.1 units. 
 
2.  Parlay of Mark Munoz over Chris Leben and Chris Cariaso over Vaughan Lee.  Risking 5 units to win 5 units.
 
3.  Parlay of Terry Etim over Edward Faaloloto, Michihiro Omigawa over Jason Young and Che Mills over Chris Cope.  Risking 3 units to win 3.55 units.
 
4.  Anthony Perosh (+300) over Cyrille Diabate.  Risking 3 units to win 9 units. 
 
5.  Rob Broughton (+135) over Philip De Fries.  Risking 1 unit to win 1.35 units.
 
6.  John Maguire (+120) over Justin Edwards.  Risking 1 unit to win 1.2 units.
 
7.  Papy Abedi(+300) over Thiago Alves.  Risking 1 unit to win 3 units.
 
8.  Perosh - Diabate under 1.5 rounds (-110).  Risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
 
9.  Etim - Faaloloto under 1.5 rounds (-110).  Risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
 
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Posted: #7

Quote Originally Posted by gsprush:

Like Pickett +130 and Munoz as parlay material.

I'm not so sure any totals are going to be made available for betting outside of the main event. This is the least amount of props I've seen available for a UFC card in at least the last 4 years. Card starts in 9 hours and no props on 5dimes, Pinnacle, or Bodog

Props were up on bookmaker last night.  Pinny has props up as I type this.  That is where I played plays 8 and 9.

BOL on your plays tonight!!!

 
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Posted: #8

Quote Originally Posted by The_HOFF:

Pickett and Perosh. I think this is one of those cards that you could blindly bet every dog and end up ahead.

I agree.  I think there will be a lot of dogs cashing today.  I just hope that I am on the right ones!!!

 
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Posted: #9

Quote Originally Posted by PDudek7263:

glad to see you on pickett. gonna be a big one for me as well

 
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Posted: #10

Quote Originally Posted by 416bet:

thanks for the 10 star tip.  Good luck today!!

Thanks bud!!!

 
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Posted: #11
Perosh and Abedi are going to get smoked...
 
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Posted: #12

Quote Originally Posted by esprague:

Perosh and Abedi are going to get smoked...

They are heavy underdogs for a reason...

Diabate  --> Horrible takedown and submission defence.  Do you realy want to be laying -400 on him when Perosh's strengths are takedowns and submission???

Alves --->  He looked awful at the weigh-ins.  He barely had any energy to walk up the stairs.  Is this someone you really want to be laying -350 on?  Hello Tyson Griffin from last week.  Same scenario...

 
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Posted: #13

Have yous seen Diabete's fights?  Perosh won't get him down and will get absolutely hammered on the feet.  Like you said, -400 for a reason.

 

Are you new to UFC...you do realize Alves has had problems weighing in twice before, right?  And did you really just compare Griffin to Alves?  I believe that was the first time Griffin hasn't made weight.  Alves has one of the toughest cuts int he UFC.  White pretty much demanded he fight middle after his last weight miss.

 
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Posted: #14

Question!?!

How do they calculate the under 1,5 rounds? The fight has to be stopped before the 2:30 mark of the second round to win? Am I right?

Thank You!

 
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Posted: #15
Correct...which fight are you looking at?
 
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Posted: #16

looks good, MR. Hopefully we can cash some dogs - I may just up my Pickett bet

Sprague, MR is one of the top dogs (no pun intended) on this forum for a reason

 
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Posted: #17

looks good, MR. Hopefully we can cash some dogs - I may just up my Pickett bet

Sprague, MR is one of the top dogs (no pun intended) on this forum for a reason

 
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Posted: #18

I'm at work until 12:00 and I cant get access to my book so depending on the odds the Over on the Diabate/Perosh fight is interesting.

If Diabate can keep the fight standing, he will dictate the fight for 3 rounds with his striking ability without really finish the fight like the Cantwell fight. Diabate seems to be really conservative with his striking style and does not want to commit himself with power strikes...

For Perosh, if he can get the fight to the mat, he will control Diabate but I dont think he will be able to finish him

 
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haha, would you like me to just agree with everything he says then?  I see the fights going a different way...we'll see in about 2.5 hours who's right.

 
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Posted: #20
Kevalev...I don't like that...if i were you i'd play it safer and take the over on Abedi/Alves -170
 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by esprague:

Have yous seen Diabete's fights?  Perosh won't get him down and will get absolutely hammered on the feet.  Like you said, -400 for a reason.

 

Are you new to UFC...you do realize Alves has had problems weighing in twice before, right?  And did you really just compare Griffin to Alves?  I believe that was the first time Griffin hasn't made weight.  Alves has one of the toughest cuts int he UFC.  White pretty much demanded he fight middle after his last weight miss.

Buddy, I am one of the top cappers on covers when it comes to MMA, and have been for years...

You and your 60 posts = instant credibility!!!

Gotta love newbies like yourself who try to make a name for himself by bashing all the regular posters, and then boast how great they are for being on a -400 fighter....

If I am wrong for taking a dog, so be it...., but you do not have to be an a$$ when trying to explain your position...

 
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by kevalev:

Question!?!

How do they calculate the under 1,5 rounds? The fight has to be stopped before the 2:30 mark of the second round to win? Am I right?

Thank You!

If the fight goes 2 minutes and 31 seconds into the 2nd round, then the play is a loser...

 
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by sawman:

looks good, MR. Hopefully we can cash some dogs - I may just up my Pickett bet

Sprague, MR is one of the top dogs (no pun intended) on this forum for a reason

 
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Posted: #24
haha...ooh, you're one of the top cappers on covers?  Do you get money for that, haha...Good call Penn and Mitrione last time...hope people fall your advice less this time.  I'll stand by my picks...
 
 
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by kevalev:

I'm at work until 12:00 and I cant get access to my book so depending on the odds the Over on the Diabate/Perosh fight is interesting.

If Diabate can keep the fight standing, he will dictate the fight for 3 rounds with his striking ability without really finish the fight like the Cantwell fight. Diabate seems to be really conservative with his striking style and does not want to commit himself with power strikes...

For Perosh, if he can get the fight to the mat, he will control Diabate but I dont think he will be able to finish him

Either way, I think this fight ends early.  Diabate will either get submitted or KO Perosh early in this fight...

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