UFC 111: Jailsex

Well finally got around to posting my plays for this card. I decided to scale back my bets after a great night on the last UFC card. Here is what I have right now.

St Pierre (-750) over Dan Hardy
- This should look similar to a prison rape scene from the show OZ. I expect GSP to stay on his feet and exchange with Hardy for a little bit before getting his takedowns at will. I think this fight will be close early on before GSP outclasses him in the championship rounds. I would not be surprised to see GSP play it safe and just grind out an easy decision rather than GNP his way to victory. This play will be parlayed with Fitch.

Frank Mir (-160) over Shane Carwin
- I am not believing the Carwin hype from the UFC. He doesn't have near the resume that Frank Mir has. I also think Mir can stand and bang with Carwin. Shane Carwin brings plenty of variables to this fight though, I don't know what his submission defense is like or his takedown defense or what his gas tank is like. I think the longer this fight goes on the more it goes into Mir's favor. I am thinking a 1st or 2nd round submission by Mir.

Jon Fitch (-360) over Ben Saunders
- This is the other half of my parlay. I am somewhat worried about this one because of the "short notice" factor. You go from training a couple months for a certain fighter to getting only a few days notice for a different fighter.  I think very highly of Fitch, if it was not for GSP I think Fitch would have held the WW belt at some point during his UFC career. I look for Fitch to use superior wrestling in this match to grind out yet another decision. This is also another worry of mine, he constantly goes to a decision and lets it out of his hands. I will still take my chances on this one though.

Thoughts/comments?

Same for me all single and a 1 unit parlay

I am playing Hardy very small in the hopes that after the first round (If it gets there) that GSP misses his stool and falls on his ass and breaks his tailbone.

HAHA, good luck with that one. You do know that if he breaks his tailbone, his trainer will say, "I don't care, hit 'em with it!"

That quote from his UFC 100 bout against Alves will go down as one of my top 5 all time favorite UFC moments.

Like the picks and the reasons for them ...I didn't touch the fitch fight but got GSP n Mir....carwin's power scares me a little but I think Mir's drive to get a rematch against Lesnar will lead him to the W, as for GSP he's pound for pound best fighter to have ever lived period 

gl man, definently like GSP in the fight, but thought about throwing a little bit on Hardy at +1225 to win by TKO/KO, i think it has some value for sure...

Well I went 1-1 and almost broke even. The GSP/Hardy was just as much of a beatdown as I expected. I have to give Hardy some serious credit for not tapping out, that armbar and kimura were deep! That's some serious pain threshold to not tap. It's funny how high of a standard we hold GSP and Anderson Silva to. If they don't provide a highlight reel KO or submission we knock them and sometimes even resort to booing. GSP did what he had to and even had a submission locked in on 2 different occasions so he definitely tried to finish the fight.

Now onto Mir - Where is this guy's chin? Yes Carwin has power but I don't think those first two shots should have stunned Mir like they did. I thought bulking up would help prevent him from from being bullied around so easily but that clearly was not the case. Carwin was able to do whatever he wanted in that fight. Either Mir is not nearly as good as I think he is or Carwin is much better than I had given him credit for. One thing is for certain though, Mir is on a definite suicide watch.

What are your guesses on the odds for Lesnar-Carwin?
I'm thinking Lesnar -250
Carwin is still not a household name yet. Lesnar gets the added juice for being a fan favorite. I have also noticed that books are slowly starting to raise the price of the favorites.
What do you guys think?

 

Lesnar -130

Wow that low? If Brock is available at the price I will be all over him then.

 

Thats my guess.I dont think you'll see any higher than -150 for sure