UFC 105 Plays - I see a huge dog day!!!

Hardy – Swick Analysis:  I have only released three 10 unit plays all year, and one of them was picking Dan Hardy over Marcus Davis at about the same price range as we are getting here tonight.  While this particular match-up does not fall into the 10 unit category for me, I think we are going to see a very similar fight.  Bottom line, Dan Hardy is one of the toughest fighters in this division, and he will not be knocked out.  Where Hardy might be at a disadvantage is on the ground.  However, just like Marcus Davis, I don’t think Swick will be able to capitalize on it.  I believe that the only way Swick can win this fight is by decision.  Hardy on the other hand, has tremendous knockout power and has the ability to finish Swick.  While Hardy may not finish Swick either, I think he will be able to effectively mix in his leg kicks with his punches to keep Swick frustrated, to the point where he might make a mistake.  I think with Hardy fighting at home in front of his UK fans (and judges) who will be behind him, I think Hardy will do enough to win a decision.

Vera – Couture Analysis:  I really do not have too much to add about this one.  I think Vera will be able to keep the fight standing and outscore Couture with his kicks.

Bisping – Kang Analysis:  I think Kang is the better all around fighter.  But I am very concerned at how poor he has looked in the UFC.  I really do not see Kang being able to finish this fight.  Similar to the Hardy fight, Bisping will have his hometown fans (and judges) in his corner.  Bisping might be able to pull off a ground and pound victory, however, I think more than likely that Bisping will score the decision.

Wilks – Brown Analysis:  I cashed in on Brown in his last fight, where he looked very impressive, knocking out Pete Sell.  I keep having to remind myself that Sell might be one of the biggest stiffs ever to step in to the octagon, so that result really was not too surprising.  While Wilks has not faced such great competition in compiling his 7 and 2 record, he did look impressive during the Ultimate Fighter, and does have a very strong submission game.  While Brown might win this by knockout, I have a gut feeling that Wilks catches Brown with a submission at some point during this fight.

Pearson – Riley Analysis:  I cashed in on Pearson as a nice dog price the last time out at the Ultimate Fighter Finale show.  Riley is coming off back to back fights with Shane Nelson, winning the last one in dominating fashion.  I think Riley is going to find Pearson to be a more formidable opponent.  I don’t really see either fighter really having a clear advantage over the other.  I think we are getting some value on Pearon based on Riley having significantly more experience in MMA.  I see this one going to the score cards, where the hometown Pearson will have the advantage with the fans and judges.

Taylor – Hathaway Analysis:  Taylor will be Hathaway’s biggest challenge to date.  I have really not seen anything from Hathaway that would make me believe he should be a 2.5 – 1 favourite in this fight.  As a result, I will try my luck with Taylor.

Etim – Gugerty Analysis:  Etim should win this fight.  But Gugerty has got a really good submission game, and has the tools to catch Etim here.  Gut feeling that Gugerty pulls the upset today.

Osipczak – Riddle Analysis:  Two very unproven fighters here.  The difference is that Riddle has shown no ability to finish a fight.  All 3 wins were by decision.  Osipczak has a very strong submission game and will finish Riddle here.  This is probably the second liveliest dog on the card today.

Siver – Kelly Analysis:  I have no idea why Kelly is a 4-1 favourite in this fight.  All 3 of Kelly’s UFC wins are by decision.   Siver has one punch knockout power, Kelly does not.  While Kelly is a tough guy, I strongly believe Siver  KO’s Kelly in this fight.

Gustafsson – Hamman Analysis:  I don’t know too much about either fighter.  I know that Gustafsson is supposed to be an up and coming prospect with a solid all around game.  I will take a chance with him at the dog price.

My book does not have a line on the Andre Winner fight.  I believe he was being offered as a heavy favourite at other books.  I think he probably wins the fight, but I am not sure it is worth laying 3 to 1 odds with him.

BOL to everyone with your plays! 

Thanks everyone!  I hope I was able to sway a couple of people in to betting on these dogs!

It definitey was a great day.  I went 6-4 +9.5 units.  Most of the losses were on my smaller bets, and an argument can be made that Vera got robbed! 

Here is the recap:

1.  Hardy

2.  Vera

3.  Bisping

4.  WIlks

5.  Pearson

6.  Taylor

7.  Gugerty

8.  Osipczak

9.  Siver

10.  Gustafsson

Overall: 66-71, +22.25 units

UFC: 57-63, +17.25 units

Affliction: 2-2, +0.5 Units

WEC: 5-4, +0.5 Units

Strikeforce 2-2, +4 Units

Yeah I noticed a lot of burnt money pouring in on Swick late this morning...  Sucks to be those guys...

Quote Originally Posted by Crowkillers:

7 of those Dogs hit.

Geez, my analysis was pretty bang on for most of these fights as well...

Yeah,it was.

Well 6 of the dogs hit.