UFC 104 Odds, Thoughts, and Leans... discussion ...

Machida-Shogun: No value here what-so-ever. Everyone knows Machida is likely going to win this one easily, but at -440 is just plain unbettable. This is mma after all, where one punch, slip or cut can spell you doom, and that kind of juice just ain't worth it.

Velasquez-Rothwell: Cain is currently -275 at my book and I think there's still some value betting on him at that number. This fight is almost identical to the Kongo-Cain fight except for the fact that Kongo may be a better pure striker than Rothwell. Otherwise their level of wrestling is about the same, which means that Cain will dictate the pace of the fight and decide where he wants to take the action at any point. In addition, Cain's striking is ever improving and the one thing you have give this guy props for is having a chin made of granite(how did he not get ktfo after those Kongo shots?) Cardio may also come into play if this match goes into the 3rd round and based on previous results there is no doubt Cain can outpace the majority of heavyweights out there, most certainly someone like Rothwell. The UFC knows what they're doing with building up a legit contender in Cain Velasquez and feeding him Big Ben in the co-main event is exactly what's happening here.

Stevenson-Fisher: I would love to say there is great value with Fisher at +180 because I think he has far superior striking than Joe. However, his takedown defense was exposed in the past and may cost him in this fight as well. Frankie Edgar tooled Fisher with his takedowns en route to a unanimous decision win and a way-past-his-prime Caol Uno managed to take down and control Fisher several times in their match which ended in very disputed decision Fisher's way. Joe is another solid wrestler who has a decent enough stand-up game to get in close to Fisher, catch him in a scramble, take him down and grind out the decision for 3 rounds. I don't know if -200 is worth it, but if this line goes down to at least say -175, I would go with Joe Daddy.

Johnson-Yoshida: Another almost unbettable fight. All indicators point to another Koschek-like highlight reel KO of Yoshida by Johnson, but at the same time I'm a little worried about Johnson's submission defense. Rumble did get RNC'd rather easily by Rich Clementi a while back and Yoshida does have some nasty chokes in his repertoire which he can score if(BIG IF) he can manage to get this fight to the ground. I'd say Johnson likely takes this one, but at -290 the risk is just not worth the reward.

Okami-Sonnen: Okami at -230 is BY FAR THE BEST VALUE ON THE CARD! Okay, where to begin? Let's start with the fact that 50%(23/46) of these guys career wins are all by decision, which means you're likely going to see one in this fight. They both rely on their strong wrestling base to neutralize their opponents, so whoever manages to get top control will likely get the nod from the judges. You have to give credit to Sonnen for being able to stifle his opponents with wrestling through the years, no doubt from training at an excellent wrestling-based camp in Team Quest. However, this time around he is facing an opponent who also has great wrestling acumen, is bigger, faster, stronger and younger in Thunder Okami. Okami is 7-1 in the UFC with his only loss being a disputed decision loss to Rich Franklin. Meanwhile Sonnen's record in the UFC at 2-2 is shoddy at best. A lot Sonnen's losses are due to the fact that he employs severely poor strategy in a lot of his high profile matches(taking down Maia and Filho, wtf was he thinking?) and this one should be no exception. In one scenario I see Sonnen trying to take Okami down several times and getting reversed, taken down himself and smothered for 3 rounds. In another scenario I could picture both neutralizing each others wrestling and instead focusing on the standup, where I believe Okami once again has the advantage with his power shots. From what I've seen Sonnen's jab is pretty pathetic and Okami should have no problem slipping under and countering with some good strikes. As far as submissions go, I haven't seen Okami employ any in his UFC career, but at the same time Sonnen is prone to getting caught in them, so this is a possibily as well. Overall, I really don't see many ways Sonnen can win this fight other than getting takedowns and working his gnp for 3 rounds, which I feel Okami just won't allow. The one thing that puts a little doubt in my mind is Okami coming off of numerous injuries which have a slight chance to impact the fight, however, a fighter of his caliber knows his own body and would not wait this long to make his return to the cage if he wasn't close to or at 100% health. At -230 I think he is being highly undervalued and would recommend a good sized bet on him now before the odds get sour.

Schafer-Bader: This is obviously a showcase fight for Bader who I expect to smash the undersized, overmatched Schafer. Sure, Schafer is good at what he does: submissions on the ground. But unless Bader just had a brain transplant with Sonnen, I don't see him taking any part in that game. That being said this fight will look similar to the one Bader had with Vinny Magalhaes on the TUF finale; Schafer will attempt takedowns and pull guard to no avail en-route to getting a booming overhand right straight to his dome. If you feel like gambling, I guess +350 is a good number to do that with, but otherwise I would recommend staying away from this fight altogether.