Posted:
#1
Posted Record: 22 - 22 (favs: 7-1, dogs: 15-21)
Went 1-2 at UFC 98, breaking dead even (+0.0 units). I thought Serra could have won the decision against Hughes, but, oh well, what can ya do?
This is the one I've been waiting for.....I rarely bet favorites in MMA, because I just usually don't spot a lot of value in them. I don't claim to be the most educated person in this forum when it comes to MMA, but I do know an awful lot about numbers and value, and to me, this line is a gift.
Nathan Diaz (-140) v.s. Joe Stevenson (+110) June 20:
Nathan Diaz -140.....This is fight between two fighters headed in opposite directions. Despite his recent loss to Clay Guida, Diaz is on the rise and eventually will be a top contender in the 155. Stevenson has beaten a few lower-tier fighters but has just been a punching bag lately. Granted, losses to Penn, Sanchez, and Florian are nothing to be ashamed of, but Diaz isn't very far from being on that level. Stevenson was actaully losing to Tibau also, before he caught him in a guillotine.
Diaz obviously has a huge height advantage, which translates into a nice reach advantage. I see him being able to "pepper" Stevenson with jabs while they're standing, and then Joe will go for a takedown. And that is when Diaz is at his best, when he's on the ground. So naturally, if Diaz has a big advantage standing and on the ground, he is an overwhelming favorite to win this fight, and at -140, it is very much worthy of a large wager.
I've got a couple units spread out over a couple of different books and I head out to Vegas in 2 days, and I will certainly be betting it out there as well. This is one of those fights that makes me yell, FUCK MONEY MANAGEMENT!!!!
Good luck with whatever you guys do!!!!
0
Good luck on the parlays, but be careful fading Guida, he's a frickin' savage. Sure, Diego should win, but the reason I have a hard time going against Guida is because he is so relentless, and I think judges see that and take it into consideration when making their decisions. 
Hot Forum Topics
