Sides Steelers +10.5 New week, same story. Despite a sharp market correction off the open, value remains on the Steelers, as the premium off the true intrinsic value of the Patriots should remain in tact throughout the year.
Even the most supporting Patriot backers are getting concerned with their recent regression. Although they are a better team than they put on the field Monday night, things will not improve much this week, as they face the team that in my opinion matches up as well as any other team in the league against them. We have seen a recent regression in the Patriots high octane passing game the last couple of weeks. The regression has come mainly from two variables- teams have found out how to limit Moss’s production and how to pressure Brady with by utilizing a variety of exotic blitzes. Not every team can execute such a game plan, but probably no defense in the league can execute this type of game plan as well as the Steelers. The Steelers posses the best pass defense in the league, a facet that should only improve this week with the return of Palamula. More importantly, they have accomplished such a title predominantly thanks to their blitzing schemes that pressure the quarterback as well as any other team in the league. Expect Brady to run into more of the same problems that has plagued him the last couple of weeks, and force the Patriots to once again put up points well of their mean.
The other main regression the Patriots have experienced has been their defense. As mentioned last week, this facet may be more sustainable, as the unit was overachieving, has experienced a key injury, and posses players prone to wearing down late in the season. Last week, the power running game pretty much beat up their front. On short rest, the Patriots defense that much more vulnerable to the Steelers power running game that should have success and key the Patriots offense off the field. Ben has scene this defense and their schemes many times, and the Patriots pass defense does not hold the usual edge against their counterparts this week. Expect some success on the ground and in the air from the Steelers, allowing this game to remain close throughout. The Steelers should also benefit from the return of three key integral players that have been absent in recent weeks.
The market correction appears to be slowing hitting the Patriots, but in my opinion, remains nowhere near true value. This game should be decided by a one possession score, and I will gladly take the Steelers and double digits.
Ravens +9.5 A lot of people are expecting a letdown spot from the Ravens after the emotional and physical grinding they took Monday night. Although such a notion is possible, in my opinion, it is fully reflected in the market price. Also such a notion is less probable, as the Ravens remain at home, play at prime time once again, and play a team they would like to seek revenge against after last years playoff loss. They are also playing with more confidence heading into this game.
As mentioned last week, we have seen the worst of the Ravens offense this season. Boller provides this offense with some upward mobility, and has filled in quite nicely after replacing McNair. The Ravens running game also took a step forward last week as well. The Colts defense has played well, but may be softening a bit, while never as potent on the road. It is an undersized unit that is prone to wearing down late in the season, and are most vulnerable to the power running game the Ravens possess. Expect the Ravens to once again have success on the ground, take the pressure off of Boller and provide more balance to the offense compared to what they are accustomed to. The likely return of Heap should pay big dividends as well.
The Colts defense may struggle against a defense that could put the pressure on the quarterback like the Ravens. Harrison’s absence leaves Manning without his best check down to overcome a blitz happy defense. The grass, potentially slick field and Ravens top tier run defense should curtail the efficiency the Colts running game is accustomed to, while the poor weather conditions, pressuring ability and injuries should curtail their passing game. The Colts are no longer accustomed to beating solid defense by two possessions. This one should be much closer than the spread indicates.
Bucs-3 I have been saying it for a couple months now, but the Bucs may be the biggest sleeper in football, the second best team in the NFC, and arguably the most consistently undervalued team in football. Although the market is slowly catching up to their worth, I still see them as undervalued.
The Bucs may not have the most explosive offense in the league, but they are highly productive, consistent and balanced. The return of Garcia should only enhance such traits. Expect the Bucs to take advantage of the Texans injured, slumping and sub par defense who has struggled in both their run defense as well as their pass defense. This bodes well for the Bucs, as their passing game feeds off their running game more than most teams. The magnitude of the injury to Robinson continues to go unnoticed, but the Texans simply lack depth in their secondary and now lack a cover corner that can match up well against Galloway. Expect the Bucs to continue to quietly fly under the radar on offense this week with another productive and balanced performance.
The Bucs defense is another unit that has been highly productive and balanced, as they have defended the pass and run well all season. Their style of defense and scheming ability is designed to dominate sub par offenses like the Texans, and also take advantage of mistake prone quarterbacks like Rosenfels. Expect the Bucs to be successful in taking out the Texans running game early and putting pressure on Rosenfels to make things happen. He simply lacks the consistency and weapons to answer the call.
Teams coming off a win like the Bucs did last week and possess a comfortable first place lead are generally prone to a letdown when going on the road against a sub par out of conference team the following week. However, the Bucs are not your typical team as veteran leadership and solid coaching will prevent them from falling into such a trap. Expect another solid performance out of the Bucs as they try to get that first round bye.
Sides Steelers +10.5 New week, same story. Despite a sharp market correction off the open, value remains on the Steelers, as the premium off the true intrinsic value of the Patriots should remain in tact throughout the year.
Even the most supporting Patriot backers are getting concerned with their recent regression. Although they are a better team than they put on the field Monday night, things will not improve much this week, as they face the team that in my opinion matches up as well as any other team in the league against them. We have seen a recent regression in the Patriots high octane passing game the last couple of weeks. The regression has come mainly from two variables- teams have found out how to limit Moss’s production and how to pressure Brady with by utilizing a variety of exotic blitzes. Not every team can execute such a game plan, but probably no defense in the league can execute this type of game plan as well as the Steelers. The Steelers posses the best pass defense in the league, a facet that should only improve this week with the return of Palamula. More importantly, they have accomplished such a title predominantly thanks to their blitzing schemes that pressure the quarterback as well as any other team in the league. Expect Brady to run into more of the same problems that has plagued him the last couple of weeks, and force the Patriots to once again put up points well of their mean.
The other main regression the Patriots have experienced has been their defense. As mentioned last week, this facet may be more sustainable, as the unit was overachieving, has experienced a key injury, and posses players prone to wearing down late in the season. Last week, the power running game pretty much beat up their front. On short rest, the Patriots defense that much more vulnerable to the Steelers power running game that should have success and key the Patriots offense off the field. Ben has scene this defense and their schemes many times, and the Patriots pass defense does not hold the usual edge against their counterparts this week. Expect some success on the ground and in the air from the Steelers, allowing this game to remain close throughout. The Steelers should also benefit from the return of three key integral players that have been absent in recent weeks.
The market correction appears to be slowing hitting the Patriots, but in my opinion, remains nowhere near true value. This game should be decided by a one possession score, and I will gladly take the Steelers and double digits.
Ravens +9.5 A lot of people are expecting a letdown spot from the Ravens after the emotional and physical grinding they took Monday night. Although such a notion is possible, in my opinion, it is fully reflected in the market price. Also such a notion is less probable, as the Ravens remain at home, play at prime time once again, and play a team they would like to seek revenge against after last years playoff loss. They are also playing with more confidence heading into this game.
As mentioned last week, we have seen the worst of the Ravens offense this season. Boller provides this offense with some upward mobility, and has filled in quite nicely after replacing McNair. The Ravens running game also took a step forward last week as well. The Colts defense has played well, but may be softening a bit, while never as potent on the road. It is an undersized unit that is prone to wearing down late in the season, and are most vulnerable to the power running game the Ravens possess. Expect the Ravens to once again have success on the ground, take the pressure off of Boller and provide more balance to the offense compared to what they are accustomed to. The likely return of Heap should pay big dividends as well.
The Colts defense may struggle against a defense that could put the pressure on the quarterback like the Ravens. Harrison’s absence leaves Manning without his best check down to overcome a blitz happy defense. The grass, potentially slick field and Ravens top tier run defense should curtail the efficiency the Colts running game is accustomed to, while the poor weather conditions, pressuring ability and injuries should curtail their passing game. The Colts are no longer accustomed to beating solid defense by two possessions. This one should be much closer than the spread indicates.
Bucs-3 I have been saying it for a couple months now, but the Bucs may be the biggest sleeper in football, the second best team in the NFC, and arguably the most consistently undervalued team in football. Although the market is slowly catching up to their worth, I still see them as undervalued.
The Bucs may not have the most explosive offense in the league, but they are highly productive, consistent and balanced. The return of Garcia should only enhance such traits. Expect the Bucs to take advantage of the Texans injured, slumping and sub par defense who has struggled in both their run defense as well as their pass defense. This bodes well for the Bucs, as their passing game feeds off their running game more than most teams. The magnitude of the injury to Robinson continues to go unnoticed, but the Texans simply lack depth in their secondary and now lack a cover corner that can match up well against Galloway. Expect the Bucs to continue to quietly fly under the radar on offense this week with another productive and balanced performance.
The Bucs defense is another unit that has been highly productive and balanced, as they have defended the pass and run well all season. Their style of defense and scheming ability is designed to dominate sub par offenses like the Texans, and also take advantage of mistake prone quarterbacks like Rosenfels. Expect the Bucs to be successful in taking out the Texans running game early and putting pressure on Rosenfels to make things happen. He simply lacks the consistency and weapons to answer the call.
Teams coming off a win like the Bucs did last week and possess a comfortable first place lead are generally prone to a letdown when going on the road against a sub par out of conference team the following week. However, the Bucs are not your typical team as veteran leadership and solid coaching will prevent them from falling into such a trap. Expect another solid performance out of the Bucs as they try to get that first round bye.
Totals Chargers/Titans Under 41 Despite going Over in three of their last four games, I feel that the Titans are still one of the most intriguing long term Under plays as the market seems to provide continual value on the Under in their games. In my opinion, this game is no different.
Things will get much more difficult for the Titans sub par offense after facing three weak defenses in a row. The Titans have yet to prove capable of putting up a decent amount of points against a quality defense all season, a trend that I don’t feel will come to an end against the Chargers. Their Chargers defense has really been coming into their own of late, and finally appear to be playing to their capability. Their pass defense has been one of the better ones in the league, as hold a decisive advantage over the inconsistent passing game of the Titans. More importantly, their pass defense success has come predominantly come from their ability to pressure the quarterback and create turnovers, which does not bode well for a mistake prone quarterback like Young. This should only encourage a run happy offense to rely on the run that much more. However, the Chargers run defense is decent enough to curtail the production of the Titans run game and limit the success to keeping drives sustained for short periods of time. Expect the Titans young offense to be overwhelmed a bit, be limited to “safe mode” and rely on their defense and field position to win the game. The result be a limited amount of points.
The Chargers offense has yet to kick it into full gear, especially in their road games, where they have actually been inefficient. The Titans got a big boost with the return of Haynesworth last week despite his production being limited. Expect bigger dividends from his presence this week, which should curtail Tomlinson to a solid yet non dominant game. The Titans pass defense in my opinion remains one of the best in the league and hold an edge over their counterparts passing game. The result will be a heavy reliance on Tomlinson and their defense to win the game.
This has a makings of an AFC slugfest filled with solid defense and a lot of running. The result should be long drives and few points. I like the Under.
Lions/Cowboys Under 51.5 Once again I find that the totals in the Cowboys games are being set at prices well above intrinsic worth due to the Over rate in their games this season.
The Lions offense has seriously regressed and more importantly should get progressively worse here on out. Teams have been better defending their one dimensional style, while Kitna and his offensive line are simply not playing at a level that could light up a scoreboard any longer. Take out their best offensive weapon (by far) in Williams, and the Lions offense is not left with much to try to get things back on track. It is also an offense that used to be much more productive at home, but even that edge has dissipated of late. Things will not get much easier for them this week, as they face one of the best defenses they have faced all season, and a defense that fundamentally matches up well with the Lions strengths. Without Williams, the Lions lack the deep threat that could potentially attack the Cowboys vulnerability defending the third level. It will also shift the other Lions receivers out of the supplementary role they are built for. The Lions offensive lines regression coupled with the Cowboys top tier pass rush should force Kitna to rely on shorter passes to move the ball downfield. However, his lack of consistency and now options should force the Lions once again into a lot of stalled drives. Without a running game to offset this disadvantage, the Lions should once again struggle putting up points on the scoreboard.
There is no denying the decisive advantage the Cowboys offense has against the Lions regressing defense. However, one has to wonder how long it will take the Cowboys to generate a comfortable lead and go into running mode. Although they should put up their fair share of points, they should not be able to compensate for the lack thereof from the Lions. Too much value on the Under to pass up.
Panthers/Jaguars Over 37.5 I really like this Jaguars team, but feel that the market is starting to catch up to their worth covering 8 of 12 will tend to do. However, what the market has yet to catch up to is this teams Over trend, as the prices continue to reflect this team being a defense lead and conservative running oriented team. However, in reality, their defense has depreciated this year, and it is now their offense and an underrated passing game that has a lot to do with their success.
Don’t let last week full you. The Panthers defense is below average and has struggled all year defending above average offenses. This does not bode well for their chances this week that could both run and pass highly efficiently. The Jaguars passing game may be the most underrated in football, as Garrard has been highly productive and mistake free. He has been taking advantage of teams stacking the box in fear of their running game, and has been attacking the second and third level defenses beneficial to Overs. Expect him to have continued success this week facing a highly inconsistent pass defense. The Panthers run defense should also be overmatched and are prone to allowing the big run. Expect the Jaguars up tempo play and success in the passing and running game to lead to a lot of points.
Ideally, the Panthers would like to slowdown the game and turn this into a slugfest. However, their defense has been unable to stop solid offenses, leaving such a strategy moot. The return of Stroud and Jaguars stacking of the box will also more than likely take away the Panther ineffective running game from the onset and force the Panthers to employ a game plan favorable to the Over whether successful or not. Although the Panthers have one of the more anemic offenses in the league, they may have some success this week against a tired defense that has not been playing terribly well this season. Testaverde not only adds some downfield potential for the Panthers and allows Smith to be more of a factor in the game, but also is mistake prone and could set up the opposition with easy scores. I am not expecting the Panthers to light up the scoreboard, but expect them to approach 20 and not demand a lot of time off the clock during their drives.
Totals Chargers/Titans Under 41 Despite going Over in three of their last four games, I feel that the Titans are still one of the most intriguing long term Under plays as the market seems to provide continual value on the Under in their games. In my opinion, this game is no different.
Things will get much more difficult for the Titans sub par offense after facing three weak defenses in a row. The Titans have yet to prove capable of putting up a decent amount of points against a quality defense all season, a trend that I don’t feel will come to an end against the Chargers. Their Chargers defense has really been coming into their own of late, and finally appear to be playing to their capability. Their pass defense has been one of the better ones in the league, as hold a decisive advantage over the inconsistent passing game of the Titans. More importantly, their pass defense success has come predominantly come from their ability to pressure the quarterback and create turnovers, which does not bode well for a mistake prone quarterback like Young. This should only encourage a run happy offense to rely on the run that much more. However, the Chargers run defense is decent enough to curtail the production of the Titans run game and limit the success to keeping drives sustained for short periods of time. Expect the Titans young offense to be overwhelmed a bit, be limited to “safe mode” and rely on their defense and field position to win the game. The result be a limited amount of points.
The Chargers offense has yet to kick it into full gear, especially in their road games, where they have actually been inefficient. The Titans got a big boost with the return of Haynesworth last week despite his production being limited. Expect bigger dividends from his presence this week, which should curtail Tomlinson to a solid yet non dominant game. The Titans pass defense in my opinion remains one of the best in the league and hold an edge over their counterparts passing game. The result will be a heavy reliance on Tomlinson and their defense to win the game.
This has a makings of an AFC slugfest filled with solid defense and a lot of running. The result should be long drives and few points. I like the Under.
Lions/Cowboys Under 51.5 Once again I find that the totals in the Cowboys games are being set at prices well above intrinsic worth due to the Over rate in their games this season.
The Lions offense has seriously regressed and more importantly should get progressively worse here on out. Teams have been better defending their one dimensional style, while Kitna and his offensive line are simply not playing at a level that could light up a scoreboard any longer. Take out their best offensive weapon (by far) in Williams, and the Lions offense is not left with much to try to get things back on track. It is also an offense that used to be much more productive at home, but even that edge has dissipated of late. Things will not get much easier for them this week, as they face one of the best defenses they have faced all season, and a defense that fundamentally matches up well with the Lions strengths. Without Williams, the Lions lack the deep threat that could potentially attack the Cowboys vulnerability defending the third level. It will also shift the other Lions receivers out of the supplementary role they are built for. The Lions offensive lines regression coupled with the Cowboys top tier pass rush should force Kitna to rely on shorter passes to move the ball downfield. However, his lack of consistency and now options should force the Lions once again into a lot of stalled drives. Without a running game to offset this disadvantage, the Lions should once again struggle putting up points on the scoreboard.
There is no denying the decisive advantage the Cowboys offense has against the Lions regressing defense. However, one has to wonder how long it will take the Cowboys to generate a comfortable lead and go into running mode. Although they should put up their fair share of points, they should not be able to compensate for the lack thereof from the Lions. Too much value on the Under to pass up.
Panthers/Jaguars Over 37.5 I really like this Jaguars team, but feel that the market is starting to catch up to their worth covering 8 of 12 will tend to do. However, what the market has yet to catch up to is this teams Over trend, as the prices continue to reflect this team being a defense lead and conservative running oriented team. However, in reality, their defense has depreciated this year, and it is now their offense and an underrated passing game that has a lot to do with their success.
Don’t let last week full you. The Panthers defense is below average and has struggled all year defending above average offenses. This does not bode well for their chances this week that could both run and pass highly efficiently. The Jaguars passing game may be the most underrated in football, as Garrard has been highly productive and mistake free. He has been taking advantage of teams stacking the box in fear of their running game, and has been attacking the second and third level defenses beneficial to Overs. Expect him to have continued success this week facing a highly inconsistent pass defense. The Panthers run defense should also be overmatched and are prone to allowing the big run. Expect the Jaguars up tempo play and success in the passing and running game to lead to a lot of points.
Ideally, the Panthers would like to slowdown the game and turn this into a slugfest. However, their defense has been unable to stop solid offenses, leaving such a strategy moot. The return of Stroud and Jaguars stacking of the box will also more than likely take away the Panther ineffective running game from the onset and force the Panthers to employ a game plan favorable to the Over whether successful or not. Although the Panthers have one of the more anemic offenses in the league, they may have some success this week against a tired defense that has not been playing terribly well this season. Testaverde not only adds some downfield potential for the Panthers and allows Smith to be more of a factor in the game, but also is mistake prone and could set up the opposition with easy scores. I am not expecting the Panthers to light up the scoreboard, but expect them to approach 20 and not demand a lot of time off the clock during their drives.
Cardinals/Seahawks Under 44.5 In my opinion, this is one of the most undervalued plays this week. I really like the Seahawks defense and don’t feel that they get the credit they deserve. They have defended the run and pass well all season, especially at home (where they are also helped out by the crowd who has forced more false starts than any other stadium in football). The injuries to both Fitzgerald and Boldin are monumental as they were the catalyst of the Cardinals offense and were able to mask Warner’s deficiencies. Their absence (or at least Boldins) will force the Cardinals to deviate from their normal game plan favorable to the Over into a more conservative one. Adding to their absence, also effecting the Cardinals productivity in the air will be the Seahawks decisive advantage in the trenches and this stadium being a hostile environment for establishing a passing game. These three variables are stimulants to Warner’s mistake propensity and the Cardinals know it. Expect them to rely more on the run this game, which has not been terribly effective and lacks big play ability. This week the Cardinals will have trouble scoring points, and are the biggest candidate for huge regression in points off their last four games.
I am not terribly bullish on the Seahawks offense that has been inconsistent all season. The return of Alexander and being able to put up a lot of points against a defense prone for a letdown last week does not change such a notion. The injury to Wilson hurts the Cardinals defense, but does not necessarily favor Overs, as his absence may have a bigger effect on their run defense than pass defense. The Seahawks ineffective running game will prevent them from dominating the Cardinals biggest weakness, their run defense, but will allow them to be effective enough to grind out yards slowly and prevent them from turning into a high rate passing team. The absence of the Cardinals two best pass rushers will not be as detrimental for them in this game, as they face a passing attack heavily dependent on the first level. The Seahawks will have some success in the air and on the ground, but will have to chip away at the field to do so. They should surpass 20, but will not be able to compensate for the lack of offense of the Cardinals and the inflated total.
Patriots/Steelers Under 49 Although I continue to get hammered betting Unders in Patriots games, I will continue to bet against heavily inflated lines.
Teams are starting to figure out how to curtail the potency of the Patriots offense. Both the Eagles and Ravens had some success against the Patriots by doubling Moss and using a good amount of blitzes. The Steelers are one of the best teams in taking out the opponent’s number one receiver and may also be the best blitzing team in the league. They are also the best pass defense in football. These are enough vital variables that lead me to believe the Patriots will once again put up points well of their mean average, and also be forced to a more conservative game plan favorable to the Under.
The best defense for the Patriots offense may be a good offense against their defense. I have mentioned the last couple of weeks that the Patriots defense was overachieving and prone to some regression. However, such a notion actually favors the Under as it keeps the up tempo Patriots offense off the field more and shortens the clock. Expect the Steelers to try to slow down the tempo of the game with a power running attack and conservative passing game as they know their best chance of winning is employing their brand of football. With the recent regression of the Patriots defense and propensity to coming into this game more tired than most coming off short rest and a physical game, the Steelers should have some success grinding out yards and eating up clock. However, putting up a lot of points will not be likely for this slumping offense.
Colts/Ravens Under 43 I mentioned last week that the Ravens have some upward mobility with Boller and should get progressively better as the season goes on. However, the level of success they witnessed last week is simply not sustainable, especially against the Colts defense. Expect Boller to have problems adjusting to the speed of the Colts defense, as such a variable has hindered his ability in the past, and should continue to do so with the lack of protection his line has been giving him. The Colts have one of the best pass defenses in the league, but are still vulnerable the run. This should force the Ravens to return to the run oriented offense that they were prior to last weeks game and force them into a more clock eating game plan. The Colts inability to stop opposing running games should provide the Ravens some success on the ground, but the lack of consistency in their running game should prevent dominance. Combine that with being overmatched in the passing game should lead to some sustained drives to field goal range, but expecting more than a touchdown may be wishful thinking.
The Ravens defense is prone to a letdown after last week. However, keeping them afloat should be the revenge factor and another prime time home game against a marked opponent. The Colts passing game has significantly regressed with the absence of Harrison and are always less potent on grass and in cold weather. It is also most vulnerable against defenses that could get to Manning. This leads me to believe the Colts will be more committed to the running game and short passes. The lack of one decisive edge the Colts usually have on offense leads me to believe a performance significantly lower than their mean is in the cards.
Cardinals/Seahawks Under 44.5 In my opinion, this is one of the most undervalued plays this week. I really like the Seahawks defense and don’t feel that they get the credit they deserve. They have defended the run and pass well all season, especially at home (where they are also helped out by the crowd who has forced more false starts than any other stadium in football). The injuries to both Fitzgerald and Boldin are monumental as they were the catalyst of the Cardinals offense and were able to mask Warner’s deficiencies. Their absence (or at least Boldins) will force the Cardinals to deviate from their normal game plan favorable to the Over into a more conservative one. Adding to their absence, also effecting the Cardinals productivity in the air will be the Seahawks decisive advantage in the trenches and this stadium being a hostile environment for establishing a passing game. These three variables are stimulants to Warner’s mistake propensity and the Cardinals know it. Expect them to rely more on the run this game, which has not been terribly effective and lacks big play ability. This week the Cardinals will have trouble scoring points, and are the biggest candidate for huge regression in points off their last four games.
I am not terribly bullish on the Seahawks offense that has been inconsistent all season. The return of Alexander and being able to put up a lot of points against a defense prone for a letdown last week does not change such a notion. The injury to Wilson hurts the Cardinals defense, but does not necessarily favor Overs, as his absence may have a bigger effect on their run defense than pass defense. The Seahawks ineffective running game will prevent them from dominating the Cardinals biggest weakness, their run defense, but will allow them to be effective enough to grind out yards slowly and prevent them from turning into a high rate passing team. The absence of the Cardinals two best pass rushers will not be as detrimental for them in this game, as they face a passing attack heavily dependent on the first level. The Seahawks will have some success in the air and on the ground, but will have to chip away at the field to do so. They should surpass 20, but will not be able to compensate for the lack of offense of the Cardinals and the inflated total.
Patriots/Steelers Under 49 Although I continue to get hammered betting Unders in Patriots games, I will continue to bet against heavily inflated lines.
Teams are starting to figure out how to curtail the potency of the Patriots offense. Both the Eagles and Ravens had some success against the Patriots by doubling Moss and using a good amount of blitzes. The Steelers are one of the best teams in taking out the opponent’s number one receiver and may also be the best blitzing team in the league. They are also the best pass defense in football. These are enough vital variables that lead me to believe the Patriots will once again put up points well of their mean average, and also be forced to a more conservative game plan favorable to the Under.
The best defense for the Patriots offense may be a good offense against their defense. I have mentioned the last couple of weeks that the Patriots defense was overachieving and prone to some regression. However, such a notion actually favors the Under as it keeps the up tempo Patriots offense off the field more and shortens the clock. Expect the Steelers to try to slow down the tempo of the game with a power running attack and conservative passing game as they know their best chance of winning is employing their brand of football. With the recent regression of the Patriots defense and propensity to coming into this game more tired than most coming off short rest and a physical game, the Steelers should have some success grinding out yards and eating up clock. However, putting up a lot of points will not be likely for this slumping offense.
Colts/Ravens Under 43 I mentioned last week that the Ravens have some upward mobility with Boller and should get progressively better as the season goes on. However, the level of success they witnessed last week is simply not sustainable, especially against the Colts defense. Expect Boller to have problems adjusting to the speed of the Colts defense, as such a variable has hindered his ability in the past, and should continue to do so with the lack of protection his line has been giving him. The Colts have one of the best pass defenses in the league, but are still vulnerable the run. This should force the Ravens to return to the run oriented offense that they were prior to last weeks game and force them into a more clock eating game plan. The Colts inability to stop opposing running games should provide the Ravens some success on the ground, but the lack of consistency in their running game should prevent dominance. Combine that with being overmatched in the passing game should lead to some sustained drives to field goal range, but expecting more than a touchdown may be wishful thinking.
The Ravens defense is prone to a letdown after last week. However, keeping them afloat should be the revenge factor and another prime time home game against a marked opponent. The Colts passing game has significantly regressed with the absence of Harrison and are always less potent on grass and in cold weather. It is also most vulnerable against defenses that could get to Manning. This leads me to believe the Colts will be more committed to the running game and short passes. The lack of one decisive edge the Colts usually have on offense leads me to believe a performance significantly lower than their mean is in the cards.
I agree 100% on the SD/ Ten under. Especially with big Albert back clogging up the middle.
The Panthers are not reliable enough for me to take over here. I felt under, but I'm going to lay off. It wasn't my strongest pick.
Likewise I don't know If the Lions will show up on Offense. I initially thought they would so I leaned Over, but I am second guessing myself here as well. Another no play.
I love your under on the Hawks, Pats, and Colts. I had not got that far into the list of games yet, but your insight is hard to argue with. Good luck.
I agree 100% on the SD/ Ten under. Especially with big Albert back clogging up the middle.
The Panthers are not reliable enough for me to take over here. I felt under, but I'm going to lay off. It wasn't my strongest pick.
Likewise I don't know If the Lions will show up on Offense. I initially thought they would so I leaned Over, but I am second guessing myself here as well. Another no play.
I love your under on the Hawks, Pats, and Colts. I had not got that far into the list of games yet, but your insight is hard to argue with. Good luck.
As always great ideas and one of the first I look for. Definetly with u on TB. Leaning toward NE esp. w/Palamula out now...and the "guarantee"...lol. GLTA.
As always great ideas and one of the first I look for. Definetly with u on TB. Leaning toward NE esp. w/Palamula out now...and the "guarantee"...lol. GLTA.
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BG, enjoy your write-ups... good items to ponder. Just curious, what is your season record, ATS and Totals? I know some don't care about tracking and reporting their records... but if you do have those numbers it would be great to know how you have been coming out.
BG, enjoy your write-ups... good items to ponder. Just curious, what is your season record, ATS and Totals? I know some don't care about tracking and reporting their records... but if you do have those numbers it would be great to know how you have been coming out.
Sides Chiefs +7 I am not terribly excited about betting on the Chiefs. They have a bad coach, an inexperienced quarterback and have nothing to play for. However, the Broncos are once again too overvalued to not bet against, as their non existent Mile high effect and expected non existent turnaround has once again inflated their line.
The Broncos defense has been one of the worst all season, and an expected turnaround this late in the season with nothing to play for may be wishful thinking out of a veteran group. Their anemic run defense is especially inviting for a team that is in dire need of establishing one to take the pressure off their quarterback. Their league worst efficiency against opposing tight ends is inviting for an offense that is heavily dependent on theirs. Expect the Chiefs offense to do enough to keep this one close.
The Chiefs defense continues to play well and have shown no signs of giving up on the season. It is also a defense that matches up well against their opponents, who have become more dependent on the passing game, especially with the recent increase in productivity. The Broncos simply lack an offensive advantage to warrant being such favorites.
Totals Dolphins/Bills Over 34 What do you get when you put together a rematch of one of the lowest scoring games of the season, put them in a field with horrible weather conditions, and have two inexperienced (unpopular) quarterbacks under center? More times than not you will get a total over discounting the variables pointing towards the Under.
A lot of people got to witness the definitive regression of Beck last week and how anemic their offense was in poor weather a couple of weeks ago. However, what most appear not to be factoring in was how favorable Beck’s play was to the Over. The Weather conditions in Buffalo are poor, but the variable is being over quantified by the downward shift in market price. Expect the Bills defense to constantly stack the box and force Beck to beat them, especially with Chatman’s injury making the Dolphins that much more thin at running back. Beck’s inconsistencies and propensity for error should favor the Over, as the Bills defense will likely set up the Bills offense with favorable field position, while the Dolphins successful drives will more than likely come by big chunks and not by chipping away at the field.
Edwards adds value to the Bills, but not to the Overs, as his dink and dunk style it’s up too much clock. However, don’t expect such a style to be implemented today, as the weather and expected stacked box will be unforgiving for such a strategy. Expect more shots downfield against a suspect Dolphins secondary (harder to cover in such a slick field) and an increased propensity for error out of Edwards (first game in such conditions). The return of Lynch adds big play potential, while the Dolphins league worst red zone defense should improve the Bills problem of leaving points on the board in favorable drives. The Dolphins defense showed signs of quitting last week, a variable that can carry over in the cold weather.
Sides Chiefs +7 I am not terribly excited about betting on the Chiefs. They have a bad coach, an inexperienced quarterback and have nothing to play for. However, the Broncos are once again too overvalued to not bet against, as their non existent Mile high effect and expected non existent turnaround has once again inflated their line.
The Broncos defense has been one of the worst all season, and an expected turnaround this late in the season with nothing to play for may be wishful thinking out of a veteran group. Their anemic run defense is especially inviting for a team that is in dire need of establishing one to take the pressure off their quarterback. Their league worst efficiency against opposing tight ends is inviting for an offense that is heavily dependent on theirs. Expect the Chiefs offense to do enough to keep this one close.
The Chiefs defense continues to play well and have shown no signs of giving up on the season. It is also a defense that matches up well against their opponents, who have become more dependent on the passing game, especially with the recent increase in productivity. The Broncos simply lack an offensive advantage to warrant being such favorites.
Totals Dolphins/Bills Over 34 What do you get when you put together a rematch of one of the lowest scoring games of the season, put them in a field with horrible weather conditions, and have two inexperienced (unpopular) quarterbacks under center? More times than not you will get a total over discounting the variables pointing towards the Under.
A lot of people got to witness the definitive regression of Beck last week and how anemic their offense was in poor weather a couple of weeks ago. However, what most appear not to be factoring in was how favorable Beck’s play was to the Over. The Weather conditions in Buffalo are poor, but the variable is being over quantified by the downward shift in market price. Expect the Bills defense to constantly stack the box and force Beck to beat them, especially with Chatman’s injury making the Dolphins that much more thin at running back. Beck’s inconsistencies and propensity for error should favor the Over, as the Bills defense will likely set up the Bills offense with favorable field position, while the Dolphins successful drives will more than likely come by big chunks and not by chipping away at the field.
Edwards adds value to the Bills, but not to the Overs, as his dink and dunk style it’s up too much clock. However, don’t expect such a style to be implemented today, as the weather and expected stacked box will be unforgiving for such a strategy. Expect more shots downfield against a suspect Dolphins secondary (harder to cover in such a slick field) and an increased propensity for error out of Edwards (first game in such conditions). The return of Lynch adds big play potential, while the Dolphins league worst red zone defense should improve the Bills problem of leaving points on the board in favorable drives. The Dolphins defense showed signs of quitting last week, a variable that can carry over in the cold weather.
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