Mac's Week 10 Picks YTD: 52-27-4 (65.8%)

Dallas -1

This might not be a popular play with all the “Fade the Public/Trap Game” guys but I'm really liking Dallas here. I know there are a couple big reasons to like the Giants including, coming off the bye, at home, looking for revenge after week 1 beating, will be tied for division lead if they beat Dallas and so on. But quite frankly I think Dallas is a better team and have better matchups in this game. I think the Giants biggest strength is their pass rush and they are going to have a tough time against a solid Dallas O-line that has only given up 11 sacks all year. As far as the QB's go I think Romo has a big leg up over Eli but talentwise the receiving corps are pretty even, however the matchups in the passing game are not. There has been a lot of talk about how bad Dallas' secondary is and quite frankly I just don't buy it, mainly because a lot of people are looking at how the Giants threw on them in Week 1 but remember the Cowboys were without their best defensive back in Terence Newman for the 1^st 2 games and since he's returned the Boys have only given up an average of 188 yards a game through the air which would make them 6^th best in the NFL. I think Newman containing a banged up Burress who has been slowed in recent weeks by a bum ankle gives a big edge to the Boys.

Meanwhile look at the starting corners for the Giants, Sam Madison and the rookie Aaron Ross. Are you kidding me? You expect these guys to cover T.O.??? Yeah right. So far Dallas has the edge at QB and in the passing game, so what about the running game? Aha here we find a little flaw that could really hurt the Giants. It's gone under the radar mainly because teams have had to abandon the run against the Giants but they are giving up 4.2 YPC! Only 11 teams are giving up less YPC than the Giants. I think Marion Barber and Julius Jones can really pound it in there on these guys. I know the Giants have Brandon Jacobs but Dallas has a pretty stout run D giving up a meager 3.6 YPC which is 4^th best in the entire NFL. Oh and they get Tank Johnson back this week to help clog up the middle even more. Well all the “Fade the Public/Trap Game” guys will likely take the Giants this week but I'll stick with the better team with Dallas. In any case “Getcha Popcorn Ready” because this should be a hell of a game.

Indianapolis -3

Locked this one up earlier in the week as I knew once the public started betting they would pound this line up and I wouldn't be surprised if it got pounded up to -4.5 I like the Colts for a number of reasons this week.

Reason #1. Is that there has been a lot of talk about a letdown this week for the Colts, yeah right come on Tony Dungy and his coaching staff and Peyton Manning are too good and too experienced to let this happen. This is the 2^nd best team in the NFL for a reason and if the Pats didn't exist everyone would be talking about the Colts.

Reason #2: Well statistically the Colts are just better than the Chargers, in fact they are a lot better, they have the better offense (3^rd to 21^st) and the better defense (5^th to 25^th). They also win the average points battle big with the Colts at +14.7 and the Chargers just at +3.1

Reason #3 The QB's. The Colts have Peyton Manning who cool, calm, collected and a surefire 1^st ballot Hall of Famer. The Chargers have Philip Rivers, who is hot-headed, runs his mouth too much, gets easily frustrated when things aren't going his way and who barfed up a horrific game last week against a pass D that was allowing almost 300 yards a game, what the hell is he gonna do against an Indy Cover 2 that gave Tom Brady fits for 3 quarters last week. Sure the Chargers have LT but really he's been just average this year except for 1 monster game against an Oakland rush D that gives up over 5.1 YPC, hell Ron Dayne ripped them up last week. Meanwhile the Colts have a damn good back of their own in Joseph Addai and he should be able to put up some yards this week against this SD run D. A-Pete sure did last week. Granted Shaun Phillips was out and Luis Castillo left before A-Pete put up most of his yards. Oh wait Castillo is out again this week, Merriman is questionable and even though Phillips will likely be back he won't be 100%. Give me the 2^nd best team the past 6 years laying 3 against an overrated and over hyped Chargers team that does their talking off the field and not on it.

Miami +3

When looking at Miami's schedule the rest of the way, realistically this and the game in 3 weeks at home vs the Jets are really the only chances Miami has left for a win. And quite honestly I think this is the perfect situation for a Miami win. They are at home, they are coming off a bye when you know they heard about how bad they were and all the old '72 Dolphins were saying that they were embarrassed by this team, and I think they wanna get the W outta the way this week so they don't have to really press in the Jets game for a win. A win this week would really relieve the pressure of an 0 fer season.

To me Buffalo seems like the perfect candidate for Miami to get its 1^st win this week. Granted I do love the Bills at home, they are money there and really a completely different team than the one that plays on the road. Buffalo is just 1-3 on the road including two pounding in NE and PIT (as expected) and a win against the Jets but the Jets are probably worse than the Dolphins and that game was close until late when Lee Evans somehow halled down a terrible JP Losman pass and took it to the house. When looking at the stats surprisingly Miami has the better offense (18^th to 31^st) and the better defense (23^rd to 29^th). Take the Fins this week and I may play the Fins ML as well. One last note, keep an eye on Jesse Chatman for Miami this week, he's relatively unknown but I think he'll have a big game.

Atlanta/Carolina UNDER 36.5

Two bad offenses going here and quite frankly I'll take the UNDER all day when Joey Harrington and David Carr are the two starting QB's, are you kidding me? Steve Smith will likely be stopped once again by the combination of DeAngelo Hall and David Carr. Both of these offenses are ranked in the bottom 8 in the NFL and both defenses are decent being in the top 18. David Carr and Joey Harrington, yeah this should be a real shootout.

St. Louis/New Orleans OVER 44.5

Well it certainly looks like the Saints have come marching back (Well....their offense at least) I expect Brees and the boys to continue to tear it up against a Rams defense that is far worse than the Jacksonville defense they ripped up last week. Adding more bad news for the Rams D this week is that their best defensive lineman in Leonard Little is out for the season. However I think the Rams are going to put up some points as well as their offense is finally starting to get healthy with Steven Jackson coming back this week and Marc Bulger getting healthy which should give a huge boost to the passing game this week. Last week against the terrible New Orleans secondary Quinn frikkin Gray and his no name receivers put up 381 yards and 2 TD's. Granted most of those yards came because they had to throw while they were trailing but I think the Rams will be trailing this week as well and I think a healthy Bulger throwing to Holt and the boys can put up some points as well. This game should be a high scoring one.

Denver/Kansas City UNDER 37.5

I don't know about you but this total seems too high to me. Starting with the Broncos, Travis Henry is banged up, Jay Cutler is banged up (although likely to play) their starting center is still out, Javon Walker is out and their starting WR's are Brandon Marshall and Brandon Stockley, ugh. Meanwhile the Chiefs have the 30^th ranked offense to begin with and they are without Larry Johnson this week which is bad news for a running team. Do you trust the ancient Preist Holmes and a rookie RB to get points this week? Remember Denver still has Champ Bailey and Dre Bly so its gonna be tough for Huard to throw the ball here as well. I like KC's defense too, they are an underrated unit and continue to improve (ranked 13^th in the league) and its always tough to get points in Arrowhead (unless your the Packers lol). Take the Under.

Liking a few more picks this week that I will probably add in later. In the meantime BOL to Everyone and Their Picks!!

Green Bay -6

Here's how you stop the Minnesota Vikings; You contain Adrian Peterson. Minnesota has 3 wins this year, in the 1^st one A-Pete had 163 total yards with a key 60 yard TD grab, in the 2^nd game A-Pete ran all over the Bears with 224 rushing yards and 3 TD's and in the 3^rd one A-Pete ran for 296 yards and 3 TD's. It's simple: When A-Pete has a big day the Vikings win. He's had 2 200 yard rushing 3 TD games in the last 4 games but in between he's had games of just 63 and 70 rushing yards with 1 total TD and to no ones surprise the Vikings lost both of those games. Last week he went insane and a lot of that had to do with the San Diego defense. Shaun Phillips was out, Luis Castillo got hurt and left and the big man in the middle Jamal Williams was banged up and was on and off the field. That was essentially 3 of their best 4 run stoppers out of the lineup. Green bay this week will have all of their defensive starters in there which is bad news for Peterson as they allow just 3.7 YPC which is 6^th best in the NFL. You can bet LB's A.J. Hawk and Nick Barnett will be gunning for A-Pete this week. It also works in GB's favor that they already beat Minnesota in Minnesota 23-16 earlier this year.

Take your pick between Kelly Holcomb, Books Bollinger or Tavaris Jackson, I don't care who you throw in there Minnesota's passing game is virtually non-existent. Speaking of passing games, Green Bay has a massive advantage here. Minnesota gives up 275 yards a game through the air which is 2^nd worst in the entire NFL and with GB non existent running game you can bet Favre will be airing it out to Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, James Jones and Donald Lee a ton. In fact in 5 of Green Bay's last 6 games Favre has thrown for over 322 yards! Including 344 and 2 TD a few weeks back in Minnesota. Gimmie the Pack in cheese head country and pray that their D keeps A-Pete in check.

As always BOL!!