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Week 10

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Captain
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Posted: #1
Very average week...
barely stayed over .500 for the week, I may be betting too many games in search of a decent record.  Im normally 5-6 games, but i find myself throwing down on like 12-13 outcomes, its crazy.
 
37-46 YTD
2-3 parlays and Teasers
0-2 in-play action
 
Tonight...
Baltimore +9.5
This is an important game for the Ravens and not one that if they lose, they can lose without putting up a playoff effort.  Steelers have blown out everyone at home and The Ravens arent normally a great road team, but ill take the gamble on this being a tight defensive struggle with a late turnover being the deciding factor.  Mason and Mcgahee should provide enough offense to keep these guys close.  The poor weather forecast also should help The Ravens in this spot. 
 
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Posted: #2
My VP's are on a 3-1-1 run as of late and i have found a few more.
 
Detroit +1.5
Arizona/Detroit Under 45
NY Giants +1
San Francisco +10
 
There are some lines that have yet to come out. 
I feel they should be Ten -3 38, Pit -7 41, KC -4 38, Bal -5 38.
 
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Posted: #3
I dont really like next weeks games too much
 
I like Pittsburgh to handle Cleveland at -7 or less i will take them.  They own that team. 
 
I am not playing the GB game.  The last two weeks i've went against them thinking they're due to lose.  I will probably pick them in my office pool cuz i think Minny played in over their heads last week and couldnt cover at home against The Pack.  Packers will not lose this game, but granted these guys usually play in games decided by 6 points or less.
 
Denver is done.  I cant see KC losing 2 straight home games, especially if LJ is in, then i am more confident in this game.  I didnt see a spread, but you can bet it will be -3 or -4.
 
As much as i wanna ride the Bills hot streak, i know they are Jekyll and Hide, home and away.  They look hot right now, but you can bet that Miami will pull out all the stops.  Fake punts, Fake FG's, Fake spikes, everything.  Tough game here
 
Tennessee ML.  This will most likely be one of my largest wagers of the year.  I always fade teams on their 3rd road game.  I think if you've done that the past 7-8 years your around 70%.  Quinn Gray starting, plus the defense not playing typical Jacksonville football right now.
 
Also liking the Bears, but i will buy that down to 2.5.  This game seems like the Jets-Skins this past weekend.  Bears off a bye playing the lowly Raiders should be good enough, but the Raiders will put up a fight here.
 
I will not touch the Philly game i dont think
Carolina is playing terrible so i cant bet with them, but i cant bet against them.
I like Baltimore up to -6 against Cinci
I like The Giants to payback Dallas
Detroit just seems like they are playing alot better than Arizona
I will lay off the Colts-SD game.  That one should go down to the wire.  +3.5 with SD is a very valuable play here actually.
 
I'll be in during the week to dissect more
 
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Posted: #4
Jax will cover vs Tenn. That is my best bet!
 
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by catindahatp:

guys guess what? vegassnitch.com is giving their biggest MNF play of the year for free tonight. go check for yourself. it is FREE. just wanted to give you a heads up cause they are 16 for 16 all time on GOY's and they always release these plays for free. I guess its a good way to show how good they are.
YEA RIGHT!
 
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by catindahatp:

guys guess what? vegassnitch.com is giving their biggest MNF play of the year for free tonight. go check for yourself. it is FREE. just wanted to give you a heads up cause they are 16 for 16 all time on GOY's and they always release these plays for free. I guess its a good way to show how good they are.
This guy is a TOUT! He's a loser!
 
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Posted: #7
I agree Slingzz!  GOOD LUCK!
 
Captain
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by biglizard49:

Jax will cover vs Tenn. That is my best bet!

Why do you think Jax will cover ?  They just got blown out by a soft finesse team.  One of their scores was a TD return by MJ Drew.  Take that away and its even worse.  Plus they never looked good against Tampa either.  It doesnt bode well for you when your having trouble with NFC South Teams.  Cant forget them fighting tooth and nail with The Falcons in week 2

 
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Posted: #9
Already down on
NY Giants ML
Chicago -2.5
Detroit ML
Miami +3.5
Arz/Det Under 45
 
Leaning on..
Cle-Pit Under 47.5 also a VP
Baltimore -4.5
 
 
 
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Posted: #10
I'm not so sure on the Giants beating Dallas.  Dallas just played the Jim Johnson defense(Philly) and hung up 38 on them.  Earlier in the year they put up 45 on the Jim Johnson copycat D(giants).  Now they get to play it again. 

Greg Ellis was not dressed for the first game between them, and neither was Terrence Newman.  Plaxico will have a much harder time getting open this week.  Also Tank Johnson was activated this week and should see some time.

It seems like you always want to fade Dallas, which I can see a reason why.  Because they are a popular team and get unfavorable lines.  This one isnt so bad.  Only -1 on the road when they just came off of a -3 spread that was never in question.  You gotta roll with the hot team here, they have been covering machines so far.
 
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Posted: #11
E Dizzle, you make me feel bad bro.  I dont always want to fade Dallas.  I like taking them at home with reasonable spreads.  I admit i've been against them alot more than on them this year.  Being on them is better than being against them is also the truth.  I did take Philly last week and I admit Philly is one of my favorite teams so maybe that bias came into play psychologically. 
 
In this game though, I like a team coming off a bye, where they didnt play well the week before (yet still managed to win) playing a divisional opponent who is coming off a primetime blowout win.  I live for this situation.  The Giants are just as hot, if not hotter than the Boys.  I hate the Giants.  I dont like Plax, never have.  Dont like Eli.  Shockey and Osi are cool, but i do not like this team.
Since that first meeting The Giants are playing much better defense, especially at home.  Its scary that, the two matches they have lost were their toughest opponents, but the past couple years these teams have split their season series.  I like the way they are running the ball with Jacobs.  Toomer has come alive the past 4 weeks.  If the Giants lose this game, they are basically playing for a wildcard slot the rest of the year out.  They already took an L in Dallas, they dont want to have to walk in there in the playoffs, a win here will prolong the inevitable, so i expect them to come out with a storied effort here in a strong win
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by EDizzle:

I'm not so sure on the Giants beating Dallas.  Dallas just played the Jim Johnson defense(Philly) and hung up 38 on them.  Earlier in the year they put up 45 on the Jim Johnson copycat D(giants).  Now they get to play it again. 

Greg Ellis was not dressed for the first game between them, and neither was Terrence Newman.  Plaxico will have a much harder time getting open this week.  Also Tank Johnson was activated this week and should see some time.

It seems like you always want to fade Dallas, which I can see a reason why.  Because they are a popular team and get unfavorable lines.  This one isnt so bad.  Only -1 on the road when they just came off of a -3 spread that was never in question.  You gotta roll with the hot team here, they have been covering machines so far.
I agree...slingzz,I like all your plays except the Giants...Tank Johnson is playing for Dallas this week and Eli will be frustrated big time...
 
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Posted: #13
Already down on
NY Giants ML - Revenge Baby
Detroit ML - Call me square play of the week...lol
Miami +3.5 - I may also hit the ML
Arz/Det Under 45 - Great Value
Chicago -2.5 - Got down on it early
Adding....
Oakland +3.5 - Going for the middle here.  My good old friend C-Gold used to kill the books with this strategy.  Here is a perfect game where i feel the Bears could win but not cover.  Coming off a bye, they should be ready to go, but The Raiders are getting desperate.  This seems eerily similar to the Jets-Skins last week.  Im calling for a 24-21 final here...which also puts me on...
Chi-Oak Over 38.5 - Both defenses are has-beens
Pittsburgh-Cleveland Under 47.5 - havent been this sure on a total all year, i would love to call it total of the year, but its not quite that.  I will hit this again, if the line rises.
Jacksonville +4.5 - Revenge game.  The Jags on their 3rd straight game, i think will actually lose this game and i dont usually prefer a short side, but go against them against the spread, but im feeling like going perfect this week....and in feeling so...
Tennessee ML parlayed with Baltimore ML...
A mixture of hot and cold two -200 teams with spreads too high to take them.  After that performance The Ravens put up, you better believe they come back and atleast get the W here, otherwise heads will roll.  They have the best homefield advantage record wise over the past 5 years, so give me them straight up.  Tennessee's defense should hold up enough to give them a short win here.
strongly considering now....
Denver +3.5
Dal-NYG Under 49.5
SD +3.5
also looking at : Atlanta, SD-Indy Under, and StL
 
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Posted: #14
Carolina, Testaverde out, starting Moore........ I like ATL and points in that one...
 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by Slingzz:

E Dizzle, you make me feel bad bro.  I dont always want to fade Dallas.  I like taking them at home with reasonable spreads.  I admit i've been against them alot more than on them this year.  Being on them is better than being against them is also the truth.  I did take Philly last week and I admit Philly is one of my favorite teams so maybe that bias came into play psychologically. 
 
In this game though, I like a team coming off a bye, where they didnt play well the week before (yet still managed to win) playing a divisional opponent who is coming off a primetime blowout win.  I live for this situation.  The Giants are just as hot, if not hotter than the Boys.  I hate the Giants.  I dont like Plax, never have.  Dont like Eli.  Shockey and Osi are cool, but i do not like this team.
Since that first meeting The Giants are playing much better defense, especially at home.  Its scary that, the two matches they have lost were their toughest opponents, but the past couple years these teams have split their season series.  I like the way they are running the ball with Jacobs.  Toomer has come alive the past 4 weeks.  If the Giants lose this game, they are basically playing for a wildcard slot the rest of the year out.  They already took an L in Dallas, they dont want to have to walk in there in the playoffs, a win here will prolong the inevitable, so i expect them to come out with a storied effort here in a strong win

I agree with your outlook Slingzz....this is definetly a poor scheduling spot for the Boys. Coming of a Sunday night road conference game going straight into another road conference matchup..... when I first looked at the line it was begging for Cowboy money...and if this was a matchup with both teams rested and at full strength, Dallas would be at least a 6 point fave (on a neutral field) imo. But that is not the case...the intangible factors here all favor the Gents. As for the Cowboys having Ellis and Newman effecting Plaxico, Anthony Henry is much more important as he is the tallest/most physical corner on the squad. Reports are that he will only be on the field in nickel packages...if that. The Gents will have a relatively healthy Jacobs and Strahan is now in midseason form. Tank Johnson is not going to be important imo as he has only been with the squad for a week or two, and with no knowledge of the tema or playbook, he'll most likely play a few 3rd and longs and just simply rush the passer. He's not really an impact player anyways imo. Also, the Cowboys are a less disciplined team (in terms of overall penalties) and this factor tends to rear its head in tough road games. All this being said, we can discuss X's and O's and player availability all day long but, in the end, I think the Gents win the game although the Boys are the better team. BOL

 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by tsizzle79:

I agree with your outlook Slingzz....this is definetly a poor scheduling spot for the Boys. Coming of a Sunday night road conference game going straight into another road conference matchup..... when I first looked at the line it was begging for Cowboy money...and if this was a matchup with both teams rested and at full strength, Dallas would be at least a 6 point fave (on a neutral field) imo. But that is not the case...the intangible factors here all favor the Gents. As for the Cowboys having Ellis and Newman effecting Plaxico, Anthony Henry is much more important as he is the tallest/most physical corner on the squad. Reports are that he will only be on the field in nickel packages...if that. The Gents will have a relatively healthy Jacobs and Strahan is now in midseason form. Tank Johnson is not going to be important imo as he has only been with the squad for a week or two, and with no knowledge of the tema or playbook, he'll most likely play a few 3rd and longs and just simply rush the passer. He's not really an impact player anyways imo. Also, the Cowboys are a less disciplined team (in terms of overall penalties) and this factor tends to rear its head in tough road games. All this being said, we can discuss X's and O's and player availability all day long but, in the end, I think the Gents win the game although the Boys are the better team. BOL

Yes....

couldnt have said it all better myself....good stuff there tsizzle

 
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Posted: #18
hey slingzz.. hows it going bud..
 
I don't like your detroit pick at all..
 
Over 80% of the public is pounding the shit out of Detroit and the line keeps going in reverse. Like Vegas is getting greedy and 80% of the publics' money isn't enough for them.. Just the fact that they have a 6-2 team as a dog against a 3-5 team says something.
Before Sundays game against Tampa, the Cards had only lost one game by more than 3 pts. And that one game was against the Panthers when Warner got hurt and Rattay came in. They have been close in every game this season and even beat the Steelers early on.

Detroit was demolished 56-21 at Philly and 34-3 at Washington. They are not too good on the road against tough stop defenses. The only two road teams they have beat were Oakland and Chicago. This Arizona team could be tougher than those when you consider that if you don't count that game against the Panthers where Warner got hurt, the Cards are actually undefeated at home beating Seattle and Pittsburgh.

It's a situation where Detroit is facing a defense that's better than last weeks' Denver defense and Warner will be facing a defense that is worse than last weeks' Tampa defense...

Detroit is ranked 30th against the pass.. six Detroit opponents have passed for at least 248 yards against them. Only two teams in the league have allowed more passing yards and only four have allowed more passing touchdowns than the Lions... and Detroit has allowed opposing quarterbacks to throw for at least 2 touchdowns in five of its eight games.

The only thing I see disrupting this play is the fact that Detroit is leading the league in turnovers and Arizona is great allowing them. But I still like the home team alot in this one...
 
gl this week bro
 
 
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Posted: #19
Slingzzzzzzz
 
you still Gambling....eh.?
 
 
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