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NFL early leans for Sunday 9/16/07...

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Captain
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Posted: #1
Last week:  4-1 (80%)
MNF:  1-1 (50%)
Overall:  5-2 (71%)
 
After a profitable 1st week...I'd like to warn those that blindly follow...that these are only my early leans and things could change come Sunday morning.  Statistically...we are all fighting to stay over 50%....but the mathematical odds (or should I say Gods) are always evening things out in the end.  We might get on a good run but ultimately things correct themselves...so I could just as easily go 1-4 this week.  Use your own judgement and handicapping skills and remember...on any given Sunday anything can happen.
 
Sunday I'm leaning towards:
 
SF +3.5...yeah I know they're flying across the country and playing in a dome...but there's this system play which states...if a team is playing 2 straight home games and if they lose the 1st game to a Non-division foe...bet AGAINST them in the 2nd home game versus a Division rival...STL fits this mold.  Plus...Roberto will like these>>>SF is 7-3-2 ATS their last 12 meetings in STL...SF is 5-0 ATS meetings with STL...The underdog is 5-0 ATS over their last 5 meeting.
 
INDY -7  Tenn won last week as a SU dog and even though they are not favored at home this week...I still like this system play...which says to FADE any team that won the previous week and is now favored>>>INDY is 6-2 ATS over their last 8 meetings with TENN.
 
HOU +6.5  Last week CAR won as a SU dog and is now favored...FADE.
 
MINN + 3  Last week DET won as a SU dog and is now favored...FADE.>>>MINN is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meeting with DET.
 
SD +3.5  This is tough one because most of you that know me... know how much I love Belichick and Brady...but SD has a very good defense ( at the opposite end of the spectrum from the JETS last week)...and I some how think this game will be a close one. I'm thinking this line will go higher and then I'd like SD even more.
 
 
 
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Posted: #2
Loving Hous, Minn, Indy
 
NE is tough Brady looked really sharp and there is way too many weaponson that Patriots team.
 
Any thoughts for MNF
I'm liking Phil -6.5
 
GL SLD
 
Legend
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Posted: #3
SLD, I was expecting you to post these FADE systems as usual.
 
Good Luck, I'm with ya on all of your leans, plus some of my owns.
 
 
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Posted: #4
Love- HOU and schabb, CARL rarely covers as home fav.
 
MINN- will be in tough ag. a team brimming with confidence with little QB help and ag. a team that CAN exploit their bad pass def.
 
SD- QB rivers VS brady who would you take, other than that pretty even, except for NE WRs much better also. Brady and WR prevail.
 
GL
 
Captain
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Posted: #5
grindstone...I'm liking PHIL -7 on MNF.
 
Veteran
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Posted: #6
Try to catch it now it's at Phil - 6.5, it will rise come monday. Phil. will be  come Monday in Primetime. They need this game badly or else they will have a long road ahead. Thanks SLD appreciate the input GL
 
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Posted: #7
Good luck SLD.  I am also a believer of the dog winning SU previous week and favored the next week = FADE.


 
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Posted: #8
good luck
 
 
Legend
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Posted: #9
Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 SD/NE meetings, it may not mean much since it's old data but Chargers are 16-6-2 ATS in their last 24 road games. Looking for Chargers to go tough on Pats who cheated on taping Jets' defensive signals and revenge from AFC divisional playoff loss in Jan. 2007.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #10
Thanks for all ur post!   I'm from  the east bay too.
 
From ur early leans I like :
SF +3.5 -> Lookin to see frank gore run inspired.
MINN +3 -> Minny normally starts strong early in the season and fade away in the latter end.
 
My 2 Strong Leans
CHI(-12)  &   NYG (pk)
 
Good luck
 
Captain
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Posted: #11
GL SLD
 
i like philly in primetime
andy reid is money after a loss
playing at home        
 
lean minn also                             
 
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Posted: #12
GL !
 
Rookie
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Posted: #13
GL sportsladyd.  You're all over the road teams this week.  I think these are all no plays for me, but I hope they hit for ya! 
 
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Posted: #14
SLD..... I like the Indy Pick and possibly the SD pick. I will be opposite of Minny, system play or not. Minny is just not a good team with hardly a leader. Detroit has some weapons on offense and will exploit the Vikings defense. This is just off the top of my head for now, but I will look into it on Saturday.

In any case, GL as always....    
 
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Posted: #15
something about the indy game bothers me. tenn beat them last year. i think it will be closer than most think. I like the Minn game the best as detroit always finds a way to lose.
 
Covers Rehab
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Posted: #16
with ya on the Chargers.....

I like Carolina to cover this week....Texans didn't look to good to me beating up on a horrible KC team last week.....Carolina D-line should dominate the Texans O-line
 
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Posted: #17
How is the IND vs. TEN game related to your FADE system. TEN was the dog that won last week but i thought IND was favoured over TEN in this game. Am I missing something here?
 
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Posted: #18
Lady what u think about GB +1 against the bang up ny giant??  giant probably be w/out eli n jacob.  Leaning heavely on gb. 
 
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Posted: #19
Hous & Mini
  GL SLD  
 
Captain
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Posted: #20
 
Captain
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Posted: #21
Great week one SportsL.  BOL with week 2.
 
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Posted: #22
Texans +7 (buying the 1/2 point)
Underdog is always a good pick in any game Carolina plays!
 
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Posted: #23
Absolutely, it's all about the FADE!! Love those leans, Donna!
 
 
Covers Rehab
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Posted: #24
 
 
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Posted: #25
Houston is winner to me. Texans is my team this year to make
Indy,SD is too close to call.  I'm stayin away from this two. 
GL sportladyd.
p.s. I like N.O. to show u
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