Its monday...so im already looking ahead to week 2 especially since im not a huge fan of Mondays game...
Today...i just teased Baltimore +9 and Over 33.5
Im also going to take Arizona +3.5
For the past two years my value lines have went 63-35 - 64%
I dont always play them myself, i usually try to, but sometimes i just really like the other side...Its basically just finding games where Vegas may skew the line in order to get that balance or the public to bite.
I basically make up what i feel the line should be and compare it to what the opening line is, if it is 3 points off i play it for the spread. If it is 4.5 points, i play it for the total. Simple.
The only spreads this week that i found inflated were :
Dallas -3.5 Miami - I thought this should have been a PK.
Buffalo +9 Pittsburgh - I thought this should have been -6.
Atlanta/Jacksonville Over 34.5 - I thought this should have been 39
San Diego/New England Under 47 - I thought this should have been 43.5
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Its monday...so im already looking ahead to week 2 especially since im not a huge fan of Mondays game...
Today...i just teased Baltimore +9 and Over 33.5
Im also going to take Arizona +3.5
For the past two years my value lines have went 63-35 - 64%
I dont always play them myself, i usually try to, but sometimes i just really like the other side...Its basically just finding games where Vegas may skew the line in order to get that balance or the public to bite.
I basically make up what i feel the line should be and compare it to what the opening line is, if it is 3 points off i play it for the spread. If it is 4.5 points, i play it for the total. Simple.
The only spreads this week that i found inflated were :
Dallas -3.5 Miami - I thought this should have been a PK.
Buffalo +9 Pittsburgh - I thought this should have been -6.
Atlanta/Jacksonville Over 34.5 - I thought this should have been 39
San Diego/New England Under 47 - I thought this should have been 43.5
So i hit both my plays yesterday to even out my week
3-4 plays
1-0 Teaser
Both the Dallas and Pittsburgh spreads seem to be gaining as i see Pittsburgh at 9.5 already and even 10 in some places and Dallas at 4 in some places. Usually i like to hit the line early, but it looks like i gain value by waiting.
There are alot of games where major players have been injured, so i will shy away from them.
On Covers live odds, it showed Arizona being favored by 1.5, if thats the case, Seattle will most likely be a play as my book does not have it and i figure them to be 2.5-3 point favorites.
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So i hit both my plays yesterday to even out my week
3-4 plays
1-0 Teaser
Both the Dallas and Pittsburgh spreads seem to be gaining as i see Pittsburgh at 9.5 already and even 10 in some places and Dallas at 4 in some places. Usually i like to hit the line early, but it looks like i gain value by waiting.
There are alot of games where major players have been injured, so i will shy away from them.
On Covers live odds, it showed Arizona being favored by 1.5, if thats the case, Seattle will most likely be a play as my book does not have it and i figure them to be 2.5-3 point favorites.
Buffalo/Pittsburgh under 37.5 - This just seems like a grind it out game, which is partly the reason i dont like Pittsburgh covering the big number. Dont be fooled by The Steelers blow out of Cleveland, The Browns are just not a good team. Marshawn Lynch will probably end up being this years rookie of the year and really provides a dynamic that was missing in the Bills offense last year. You knew they werent going to run, which makes Lee Evans season last year even more spectacular. He's coming off a bad game and i look for him and JP to bounce back and be able to move up the field within the 20's. The way the Bills let Travis henry swish through the running lanes makes me feel good that i have Willie Parker on my fantasy team and i expect them to get a heavy dose of him. This game is decided on the ground, not the air.
Indy -7. Peyton always destroys this team. i thought it would have been 8 or so, but i guess Vegas likes the road win by the Titans. It was a huge win as Jax rarely loses at home in september, but at the same time, the Jags are having locker room issues with the departure of Leftwich. Peyton has had well over a week to prepare and i think we will see the Titans team that everybody is predicting this year. Garbage. Although they won, Vince Young played pretty poorly. Chris Brown looked like he was reincarnated, but with Indys "improved" run defense i think he will be contained.
Houston +7. The Texans will make us money this year. This is an exciting team with great young players, that the public just doesnt respect. They pretty much blew out KC last week and have a real good chance in this game. Carolina got a couple lucky breaks last week with the fumbles and i dont look for them to get those breaks this week. I think Houston has a great shot to win this game and shock the world by going 2-0.
Detroit -3. I know theres some serious trends with these two teams when they play but i think that this is the best Detroit team since Barry Sanders left. A strong road against a tough defense in Oakland will have these guys on a high coming back home. Im afraid that Adrian Peterson might have a huge game carrying the load for these guys with Chester ailing, but i look for Kitna to go well over 300 yards on the Vikes.
Oakland +9.5. Denver is not this good a team. I had them favoured by 7, but i would like Oakland +7 as well. Cutler is becoming a more familiar name, but he still has started like 5 games or something. The Raiders pride themselves on pass defense and have upsetted The Broncos as major dogs before. I know Shanahan owns this team, but i think the Raiders can keep it within this number. It will be nice if Jamarcus can sign this week, to get that monkey off their back. Although Oakland lost last week, they didnt look like the Oakland of old and Denver didnt do anything to show me they deserve to be 10 point favs.
Im not sure if this is the line but New Orleans -3 ?...Especially if Cadillac doesnt play, i dont see how The Saints dont win this by 10 here especially after having the extra days to prepare.
Slight lean to the Chargers as well coming off a major victory against The Bears getting revenge
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Aside from Value...
plays that im liking early are
Buffalo/Pittsburgh under 37.5 - This just seems like a grind it out game, which is partly the reason i dont like Pittsburgh covering the big number. Dont be fooled by The Steelers blow out of Cleveland, The Browns are just not a good team. Marshawn Lynch will probably end up being this years rookie of the year and really provides a dynamic that was missing in the Bills offense last year. You knew they werent going to run, which makes Lee Evans season last year even more spectacular. He's coming off a bad game and i look for him and JP to bounce back and be able to move up the field within the 20's. The way the Bills let Travis henry swish through the running lanes makes me feel good that i have Willie Parker on my fantasy team and i expect them to get a heavy dose of him. This game is decided on the ground, not the air.
Indy -7. Peyton always destroys this team. i thought it would have been 8 or so, but i guess Vegas likes the road win by the Titans. It was a huge win as Jax rarely loses at home in september, but at the same time, the Jags are having locker room issues with the departure of Leftwich. Peyton has had well over a week to prepare and i think we will see the Titans team that everybody is predicting this year. Garbage. Although they won, Vince Young played pretty poorly. Chris Brown looked like he was reincarnated, but with Indys "improved" run defense i think he will be contained.
Houston +7. The Texans will make us money this year. This is an exciting team with great young players, that the public just doesnt respect. They pretty much blew out KC last week and have a real good chance in this game. Carolina got a couple lucky breaks last week with the fumbles and i dont look for them to get those breaks this week. I think Houston has a great shot to win this game and shock the world by going 2-0.
Detroit -3. I know theres some serious trends with these two teams when they play but i think that this is the best Detroit team since Barry Sanders left. A strong road against a tough defense in Oakland will have these guys on a high coming back home. Im afraid that Adrian Peterson might have a huge game carrying the load for these guys with Chester ailing, but i look for Kitna to go well over 300 yards on the Vikes.
Oakland +9.5. Denver is not this good a team. I had them favoured by 7, but i would like Oakland +7 as well. Cutler is becoming a more familiar name, but he still has started like 5 games or something. The Raiders pride themselves on pass defense and have upsetted The Broncos as major dogs before. I know Shanahan owns this team, but i think the Raiders can keep it within this number. It will be nice if Jamarcus can sign this week, to get that monkey off their back. Although Oakland lost last week, they didnt look like the Oakland of old and Denver didnt do anything to show me they deserve to be 10 point favs.
Im not sure if this is the line but New Orleans -3 ?...Especially if Cadillac doesnt play, i dont see how The Saints dont win this by 10 here especially after having the extra days to prepare.
Slight lean to the Chargers as well coming off a major victory against The Bears getting revenge
I like Oakland + all those points over Denver ( deja vu ? )
I think its best to not to go against Tennessee while they
keep covering games ...however way they may be doing it ...
Bottom line ...The just beat Jacksonville ...and They are the hottest ATS team in the NFL going back to end of last year's run.
Wait ...
You will soon find them as a favorite with all the expectations that come with that tag.
That will be the time .
That being said , It is evidently clear that Indi is the MUCH better team...and should crush them ....
But how many times are you going to say that ?
No Value there IMO
this tennesee situation happened last year, correct me if im wrong, they were a small favorite the most jocked team in the nfl, theyd just covered against indy and vincesanity was in full affect. it was the perfect time for the fade. then vince had the run in ot for the win, the cover, and the crushing of my self esteem. it was jax or houston i think. i dont know how i could forget. could be the booze, or i just pushed it away because of the pain. anywho itll be a long time before you see a tennessee game on my card, theyre too hard to read.
I like Oakland + all those points over Denver ( deja vu ? )
I think its best to not to go against Tennessee while they
keep covering games ...however way they may be doing it ...
Bottom line ...The just beat Jacksonville ...and They are the hottest ATS team in the NFL going back to end of last year's run.
Wait ...
You will soon find them as a favorite with all the expectations that come with that tag.
That will be the time .
That being said , It is evidently clear that Indi is the MUCH better team...and should crush them ....
But how many times are you going to say that ?
No Value there IMO
this tennesee situation happened last year, correct me if im wrong, they were a small favorite the most jocked team in the nfl, theyd just covered against indy and vincesanity was in full affect. it was the perfect time for the fade. then vince had the run in ot for the win, the cover, and the crushing of my self esteem. it was jax or houston i think. i dont know how i could forget. could be the booze, or i just pushed it away because of the pain. anywho itll be a long time before you see a tennessee game on my card, theyre too hard to read.
The game you're thinking of was @ Houston, and I think the game was a pickem or Houston -1.5.
its coming back to me now. i think i had HOU -2 1/2. thanks travo. i should of just looked it up, instead of writing a bunch of jibberish, but im pretty lazy.
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Quote Originally Posted by travo:
The game you're thinking of was @ Houston, and I think the game was a pickem or Houston -1.5.
its coming back to me now. i think i had HOU -2 1/2. thanks travo. i should of just looked it up, instead of writing a bunch of jibberish, but im pretty lazy.
Dont put too much Stock into this Indy D from 1 week......I still think they blow. Didn't Tennessee beat them last year? Yes.
I watched Miami/Washington game and pushed on it, shoulda bought the hook. But Miamis D is not the same as in years past. Washington had over 400 yards.
Here are some things to think about for the Dallas @ Miami game.
Jason Garett spent the last 2 years as the Miami QB coach, i'm sure he has some thoughts on their defensive personnel and their weaknesses.
Also you saw what Romo did to a bad NY pass D, he tore them up at 14.4 yards a clip! Well it is possible that Miami's pass D is even worse than NYG.
They lost starting safety Yeremiah Bell to a torn ACL, and their is little depth in their secondary. Travares Tillman...who? Or FA pickup Cameron Worrell could fill in.
Also Jason Allen...last years first rounder could be moved from corner to safety after being drafted as a safety.
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Dont put too much Stock into this Indy D from 1 week......I still think they blow. Didn't Tennessee beat them last year? Yes.
I watched Miami/Washington game and pushed on it, shoulda bought the hook. But Miamis D is not the same as in years past. Washington had over 400 yards.
Here are some things to think about for the Dallas @ Miami game.
Jason Garett spent the last 2 years as the Miami QB coach, i'm sure he has some thoughts on their defensive personnel and their weaknesses.
Also you saw what Romo did to a bad NY pass D, he tore them up at 14.4 yards a clip! Well it is possible that Miami's pass D is even worse than NYG.
They lost starting safety Yeremiah Bell to a torn ACL, and their is little depth in their secondary. Travares Tillman...who? Or FA pickup Cameron Worrell could fill in.
Also Jason Allen...last years first rounder could be moved from corner to safety after being drafted as a safety.
I like the Jags over also except I am not sure who is going to move the ball at all for the falcons. They suck.
Jags gave up over 200 yards on the ground...Atlanta is a rushing team...look for Norwood to tear them up...
Travo...prior to that...Peyton has a history of blowing the hell out of Tenneessee, even in the loss he throw for 351 yards and Harrison had over 170 of them. With their improved defense, they look good here. Tennessee is pegged to do terrible this year with losing so many players. They may not be as bad as everyone thinks, but still there is a significant class difference here. However at the end of the day, i will not play this game for money, because i never lay a TD or more on the road. Thats the main reason, i dont care who it is, Indy is a good office pool pick this week, but thats where it stops.
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Quote Originally Posted by accventures:
I like the Jags over also except I am not sure who is going to move the ball at all for the falcons. They suck.
Jags gave up over 200 yards on the ground...Atlanta is a rushing team...look for Norwood to tear them up...
Travo...prior to that...Peyton has a history of blowing the hell out of Tenneessee, even in the loss he throw for 351 yards and Harrison had over 170 of them. With their improved defense, they look good here. Tennessee is pegged to do terrible this year with losing so many players. They may not be as bad as everyone thinks, but still there is a significant class difference here. However at the end of the day, i will not play this game for money, because i never lay a TD or more on the road. Thats the main reason, i dont care who it is, Indy is a good office pool pick this week, but thats where it stops.
Man, Romo and Dallas kind of impressed me on Sunday night.
Now they are only giving up 3.5?
I didn't see Miami play Washington so I don't know what the deal is with them. Ronnie Brown has never impressed me.
Is Miami any better than the Giants?
Was Romo's performance a fluke?
Vegas can really confuse you with these lines.
Only thing i could say is, your never as good as you looked the week before. Romo looked great, but now he plays a stout defense on the road in the sun. He's never been on the road in an AFC stadium. Ronnie Brown will impress you this weekend, especially since Jesse Chatman is dinged up a bit, he should get even more carries and catches this week.
Miami is better than the Giants that played last week, yes..
Romo's performance was against arguably one of the worst pass defenses in the league, look for Favre to light then up this week also.
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Quote Originally Posted by Greyhound:
Man, Romo and Dallas kind of impressed me on Sunday night.
Now they are only giving up 3.5?
I didn't see Miami play Washington so I don't know what the deal is with them. Ronnie Brown has never impressed me.
Is Miami any better than the Giants?
Was Romo's performance a fluke?
Vegas can really confuse you with these lines.
Only thing i could say is, your never as good as you looked the week before. Romo looked great, but now he plays a stout defense on the road in the sun. He's never been on the road in an AFC stadium. Ronnie Brown will impress you this weekend, especially since Jesse Chatman is dinged up a bit, he should get even more carries and catches this week.
Miami is better than the Giants that played last week, yes..
Romo's performance was against arguably one of the worst pass defenses in the league, look for Favre to light then up this week also.
Dont put too much Stock into this Indy D from 1 week......I still think they blow. Didn't Tennessee beat them last year? Yes.
I watched Miami/Washington game and pushed on it, shoulda bought the hook. But Miamis D is not the same as in years past. Washington had over 400 yards.
Here are some things to think about for the Dallas @ Miami game.
Jason Garett spent the last 2 years as the Miami QB coach, i'm sure he has some thoughts on their defensive personnel and their weaknesses.
Also you saw what Romo did to a bad NY pass D, he tore them up at 14.4 yards a clip! Well it is possible that Miami's pass D is even worse than NYG.
They lost starting safety Yeremiah Bell to a torn ACL, and their is little depth in their secondary. Travares Tillman...who? Or FA pickup Cameron Worrell could fill in.
Also Jason Allen...last years first rounder could be moved from corner to safety after being drafted as a safety.
I dont know about Miami's defense not being good, I mean some of Randle El's catches were circus catches, that i dont think could be repeated. Washinton only had 3 points at the half @ home. Miami's redzone defense certainly is strong and the pass rush has to be top 3 in the league. Campbell got a lot of pressure. Dallas's defense was just as bad as New Yorks. They still rushed for 114 yards on em, playing catch up and with their Backup RB. Eli threw for 312 and 4 TDs with ease and would have surely got that 5th TD and made the game more interesting if he was able to go. This is a great situation for Trent Green who needs a trashy secondary to get his confidence up. Chambers will be just like Burress out there, since Dallas doesnt have a shutdown corner
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Quote Originally Posted by EDizzle:
Dont put too much Stock into this Indy D from 1 week......I still think they blow. Didn't Tennessee beat them last year? Yes.
I watched Miami/Washington game and pushed on it, shoulda bought the hook. But Miamis D is not the same as in years past. Washington had over 400 yards.
Here are some things to think about for the Dallas @ Miami game.
Jason Garett spent the last 2 years as the Miami QB coach, i'm sure he has some thoughts on their defensive personnel and their weaknesses.
Also you saw what Romo did to a bad NY pass D, he tore them up at 14.4 yards a clip! Well it is possible that Miami's pass D is even worse than NYG.
They lost starting safety Yeremiah Bell to a torn ACL, and their is little depth in their secondary. Travares Tillman...who? Or FA pickup Cameron Worrell could fill in.
Also Jason Allen...last years first rounder could be moved from corner to safety after being drafted as a safety.
I dont know about Miami's defense not being good, I mean some of Randle El's catches were circus catches, that i dont think could be repeated. Washinton only had 3 points at the half @ home. Miami's redzone defense certainly is strong and the pass rush has to be top 3 in the league. Campbell got a lot of pressure. Dallas's defense was just as bad as New Yorks. They still rushed for 114 yards on em, playing catch up and with their Backup RB. Eli threw for 312 and 4 TDs with ease and would have surely got that 5th TD and made the game more interesting if he was able to go. This is a great situation for Trent Green who needs a trashy secondary to get his confidence up. Chambers will be just like Burress out there, since Dallas doesnt have a shutdown corner
XFL, this is the perfect team for jax to face as they look to rebound. 10 points is alot. I definetly wont lay it. Im under the assumption that they have a good defense, but Atlanta is a real rushing team, they may wear the Jags down if their backs get like 40 carries
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XFL, this is the perfect team for jax to face as they look to rebound. 10 points is alot. I definetly wont lay it. Im under the assumption that they have a good defense, but Atlanta is a real rushing team, they may wear the Jags down if their backs get like 40 carries
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