ATL/SF

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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: ATL/SF
165yds PM 165yds
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Posted: 1/16/2013 4:30:16 PM
Had zero feel for the games last week and took a pass.  No clue on the Ravens/Pats but finally have a play on the Niners game for the simple reason relief.  No team in the NFL needed a win in the playoffs more than the Hawks for their own mental acuity, now that they have this huge monkey off their back it is only natural for your gaurd to drop.  It doesn't have to be sports or football it happens in all walks of life, the worst thing for accomplishing something great is when you start smelling the roses and people are patting you on the back telling you great job.  You think the Niners are happy to be here?  They have only one thing on their minds and that is winning the SB.  Give me team that feels like they have accomplished nothing over the satisfied team any day of the week.  

When I saw the line I thought to myself that is a ridiculously strong line.  My first instinct was seems easy to grab the points.  More I thought about it the line is spot on and the number one seed at home needs more than a FG at home to possibly cover.  I hate taking road favs in the NFL but there is a much higher probability of SF winning by 13+ than there is of Atlanta staying within a FG.   SF is just too damn good in all facets and hungry for me to see this staying within a TD.

SF -4


Europa PM Europa
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Posted: 1/16/2013 4:32:22 PM
Good luck, 165yds! 
DaBestEver24 PM DaBestEver24
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Posted: 1/16/2013 4:34:18 PM
We think the same, u and i 
TRAIN69 PM TRAIN69
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Posted: 1/16/2013 5:19:23 PM

Really? All Ive seen on espn is how the Falcons got lucky and the 49ers are the best team in the nfl and CK set records.....Pretty much the same set up as when SF killed NE and then laid an egg in Seattle.....

 

bol regardless 165. Much respect

165yds PM 165yds
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Posted: 1/16/2013 5:50:36 PM
Train I understand what you are saying.  I am a big believer in %'s, line movement, strong or weak lines, sucker bets etc in every sport except the NFL.  The odds makers are not trying to trick anyone, they are giving you a line that they believe holds no value on either side.  They do not care who you bet, they just want you to bet.  Betting into a perfect line over time is impossible to beat as the juice will eventually win out.  I do not get caught up anymore into what the media, Covers forum thinks, perception etc but only in the NFL.  The limits are much higher in the NFL for a reason, it is because you are betting into a valueless line every game.  No other sport does the fav or public darling win at such a high rate like the NFL.  

When I place a bet the first thing I look for is trying to find a team that will have an emotional let down from the previous game and I think we have that here with Atlanta.  More than anything this is the most important angle I look for, not stats, trends, Covers matchup page is useless.  There are other things but finding a flat team is the most important thing for me.

GL Train.
Polar_Bear PM Polar_Bear
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Posted: 1/16/2013 5:56:54 PM
Niners are a damn good football team and no issue with the play here, however Atlanta has zero to feel good or satisfied about. Every single radio station, blog, columnist and person on the street have been saying the Falcons choked as usual and got lucky to scrape out a fluke win, only because Seattle showed up late for the game.

The Falcons have been reading and listening to this ever since they won Sunday. They might get thumped at home but it definitely won't be because they are feeling good about themselves.
165yds PM 165yds
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Posted: 1/16/2013 6:02:01 PM
Polar Bear never heard of a team winning and choking.  They showed some guts for the first time in a playoff game coming back they way they did.  

I really have not read much about them choking though.  I have read some quotes from ATL players how it feels so great to finally win a playoff game which is what I would be concerned about. SF players it's business as usual.   
ROVIN56 PM ROVIN56
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Posted: 1/16/2013 6:16:07 PM
it really boils down to a multi talented team at home where they are deadly getting points in a huge playoff game....what not to like?  
165yds PM 165yds
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Posted: 1/16/2013 6:22:49 PM
I am sure most are thinking exactly the way you are Rovin.  I can't remember the last time the number 1 seed at home was getting points in a championship game.  This would make me pause if I were on ATL.
avenue PM avenue
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Posted: 1/16/2013 6:29:11 PM
Would you like Atlanta at +11??????



raems PM raems
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Posted: 1/16/2013 6:32:03 PM
Point is, if the book weren't afraid of your SF money, nobody would've freaked out if they were favored by 2.5 in this game. Having it sit at 4ish all week is mindblowing. This isn't a Big East basketball game or some NL West baseball game that the book can get away with shading a line one way significantly, public perception/what have you done for me lately isn't really what drives the line for what will be the most heavily bet on football game of the year up until the time of the game. That's what a lot of people are having trouble grasping, the book is never "afraid" of "x" money backing "x" team in big NFL games like this, it's the one game on the board at the time, it's the NFC championship game. They just want you getting involved, whether or not you the public bettor win or lose they know they have your money in their pocket in the long term.
raems PM raems
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Posted: 1/16/2013 6:33:52 PM
Lot of bad grammar/conflicting points in my post. What I mean to say is the line is fair, they're not putting anything but a fair line in a game of this magnitude. The action will all balance out in the long term, even if they lose on this one game and a lot of people are in fact on SF it's not something the book will freak out over because they know that they win every year without fail in the long term. 
smallbet07 PM smallbet07
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Posted: 1/16/2013 6:34:56 PM
BOL bud
BigEastExpert PM BigEastExpert
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Posted: 1/16/2013 6:39:59 PM
Polar_Bear PM Polar_Bear
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Posted: 1/16/2013 6:43:37 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by 165yds:

Polar Bear never heard of a team winning and choking.  They showed some guts for the first time in a playoff game coming back they way they did.  

I really have not read much about them choking though.  I have read some quotes from ATL players how it feels so great to finally win a playoff game which is what I would be concerned about. SF players it's business as usual.   
I agree completely on them not choking, I think quite the opposite myself, to give up a huge lead like that and then still find a way in the final seconds is showing a lot of moxie imo. I have been reading and listening to people all week however saying they did choke away their lead and got lucky in the end and that it is still the same old Falcons. They may feel content as you say though, we'll see that very early in the game if they are or not.

San Fran are saying all the right things for sure, my only concern with them would be their young quarterback. He did beat the Bears in his first game as a starter on a Monday night but the Bears got dominated in every facet and Jason Campbell was the opposing quarterback so it was as easy a win as could be humanly possible. Aside from that game he has only won 2 big showdown type games. The first was in New Orleans beating Drew Brees and the Saints with everyone watching, he followed that game up by playing nothing short of disgusting against the Rams, a game in which he pretty much lost it on his own giving up a safety in the end zone when he panicked and had a brain cramp, and then chucking a ball back into his own end zone from the 20 yard line to give the Rams a free touchdown, Rams won 16-13.

The other was his big win in New England, another great performance beating Tom Brady this time with again everyone watching. He followed that up with another hideous performance getting destroyed by the Seahawks, yes the whole team was bad but he was their worst player that night missing wide open receivers, panicking in the pocket continuously and not being able to find guys that were open so that he could miss them again, but instead just running out of bounds for little to no gain.

Last week was his third big showdown type game win this time against the third of the three quarterback kings Aaron Rodgers, as he had a record setting day and won big again with everyone watching and this was his biggest win of all so far.

We'll find out Sunday if the third time is the charm because so far after his big showdown wins Colin Kaepernick has been the definition of the word letdown, and has played the complete opposite the week following his performance in those big wins.

Goodluck Sunday and I hope the kid does not crap his pants in this spot again


ShadowWarrior PM ShadowWarrior
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Posted: 1/16/2013 7:02:29 PM
If not for the time out,  Seattle would be in SF.  I think Atl is relieved but I do not think they will be flat.  Too big a game, too much work put in all those years to be where you wanted to be following play off losses to AZ, GB and NYG.  They may lose but I do not think a let down is in play.
Cooler999 PM Cooler999
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Posted: 1/16/2013 7:35:06 PM
I just don't see how Atlanta could be patting themselves on the back feeling confident and that the monkey is gone.

I used to do full contact kickboxing..i guess what you would call MMA today.  If I was going into the 12th and final round, and it was a tough fight, knowing I'd have to do my very best to in this round to win the fight.  I look over at my opponent and he trips and knocks himself out coming out to the center. 

The next think I know, there raising my hand as the winner.  Now, do I feel like I won...are people going to congratulate me for my awesome victory?  Will I feel that I got that monkey off my back?

HELL NO>..I need to go back out there and prove I'm for real. I don't need an excuse to get that win. I want to show people I have the skills to outright win, not get a gimme cause he tripped, or that a time out was called so to speak.

That being said...I still think 49ers win...BOL..
165yds PM 165yds
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Posted: 1/16/2013 7:36:03 PM
raems you understand what I am trying to say.

Polar good points about Colin but I don't think he will be the reason nor do they need him to play great to win this game.  It is like the trend where fade the team the next week that wins by the most points.  It is nice having trends like that on your side but could really care less about that stuff in the NFL.  My only concern is his nerves get to him early and he gets rattled.  When you can hand it off to one of the best RB's in the league and a top notch defense it will allow him to get settled in.  ATL almost has to play the perfect game to win or win the turnover ratio by at least +2.

There is huge discrepancy everywhere on the field between these two.  ATL having better WR's and being home are not valid reasons.  I wanted to take ATL and the points but one team is heads and shoulders better in every category.  How come nobody ever talks about the HC mismatch. I do not see ATL as a SB team and willing to pay to find out.  I will have some on the ML as well even though I hate taking ML favs.

Shadow being flat is maybe too strong a word, lets say not being on the same emotional plane.  There are athletes after Super Bowls, World Series games where you hear athletes talk about having nothing in the tank before the game started.  Randy Moss was tired and had nothing against the Giants in the SB as he said before and after the game.  I remember when the Royals won the WS and the Cards players said they had nothing and knew they would lose after the blown call at first and that was a game 7.  Just because it is the biggest game of the year does not mean players or teams cannot come out flat, it happens more than you might think.  

165yds PM 165yds
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Posted: 1/16/2013 7:43:47 PM
Cooler you can't compare a team sport where you rely on others to a sport like tennis, boxing or MMA.  Completely different dynamic where emotions come in.
don_vito PM don_vito
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Posted: 1/16/2013 7:46:26 PM
Niners all the way.
hawgpix PM hawgpix
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Posted: 1/16/2013 8:20:11 PM
Nice write up 

As far as being flat, isn't the team that man handles their opponent the week before more likely to be flat?

The fact that ATL is a 1 seed catching points is alarming, I admit.  I wouldn't say that all lines have no value in this situation though.  With these being the heaviest action games of the NFL season to date, oddsmakers must figure public perception into the line more than ever. I would think they want 50/50 action more than ever.  With SF blowing out GB, combined with ATL "getting lucky", they knew to favor SF with this line, or risk a huge loss if CK can repeat his performance.  So they favor SF by 3, only to see it wasn't enough attain their goal of 50/50.  3 is a big number to get off of, for good reason, but it took less than 24hrs.  Plenty are drinking the SF kool-aid for sure!  I see the value in a home dog that hasn't really lost at home.  ATL had their wake up call last Sunday.  SF may get their's too.  GL Bud  
TheForbes777 PM TheForbes777
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Posted: 1/16/2013 8:25:14 PM
49ers -4
BIGfnPOO PM BIGfnPOO
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Posted: 1/16/2013 8:29:09 PM
atlanta is going to try harder after escaping.   i had seahks  m.l.
charlielo55 PM charlielo55
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Posted: 1/16/2013 9:33:28 PM
You should take another pass, your logic makes no sense......fading a 4 pt underdog at home in an NFC Championship game is retarded. ALL of covers is on the 9ers, and all the ESPN pundits, as well. The Books did it again, set a false line to suck in all the square money....LOL....all the way to the bank.....Dirty Birds win in a laugher
charlielo55 PM charlielo55
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Posted: 1/16/2013 9:35:27 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by 165yds:

Train I understand what you are saying.  I am a big believer in %'s, line movement, strong or weak lines, sucker bets etc in every sport except the NFL.  The odds makers are not trying to trick anyone, they are giving you a line that they believe holds no value on either side.  They do not care who you bet, they just want you to bet.  Betting into a perfect line over time is impossible to beat as the juice will eventually win out.  I do not get caught up anymore into what the media, Covers forum thinks, perception etc but only in the NFL.  The limits are much higher in the NFL for a reason, it is because you are betting into a valueless line every game.  No other sport does the fav or public darling win at such a high rate like the NFL.  

When I place a bet the first thing I look for is trying to find a team that will have an emotional let down from the previous game and I think we have that here with Atlanta.  More than anything this is the most important angle I look for, not stats, trends, Covers matchup page is useless.  There are other things but finding a flat team is the most important thing for me.

GL Train.
An emotional letdown in the NFC Championship game at home.......that is absurd!
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