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** NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME **

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Legend
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Posted: #1
-155 

Atlanta +4.5     50 UNITS



 


Write up coming.
- The storms will come, the storms will pass -
 
Legend
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Posted: #2
Where are you seeing +4.5?
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
Veteran
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Posted: #3
 
Captain
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Posted: #4
I have 4.5 at my book
 
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Posted: #5

Quote Originally Posted by BigNiner:

I have 4.5 at my book

Serious question.  What book?

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Where are you seeing +4.5?


  My local.  

- The storms will come, the storms will pass -
 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by Wizerguy:



  My local.  

Can he be my local too? 

Good luck wizerguy....

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Can he be my local too? 

Good luck wizerguy....



   thought id get it... while the get-ns good. 
- The storms will come, the storms will pass -
 
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Posted: #9
Its very strange that they even made Atlanta the dog in this game. 

Public hoax. Atlanta moves on 
- The storms will come, the storms will pass -
 
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Posted: #10
GL Wizer, this line is defnitely inflated.
 
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Posted: #11
Like!

 Gl buddy.
 
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Posted: #12
sizer Vegas has set the bait and Falcons backers have bitten. yes there is value in the Falcons line but 49ers are not being denied against a team like Atlanta. 49ers are going to win. Falcons couldn't have a worse matchup. a defence that can't pressure the QB means CK won't be under pressure all day. Abraham not going to be 100%. 

San Fran solid run D and besides last week Turner has been a average this season. There is a strong chance the 49ers D shuts down the Falcons run and if that happens Matt R will make mistakes. Sometimes you ignore trends, regular season records, value, home records and you focus on JUST the matchup. 49ers are the better team, better coach, have conference experience from last year. 49ers are one of my fav plays this year. I have already unloaded on the ML and if I get the ML for a good price in running I will unload on the ML again...

Forget what the line should be. Focus on Steve Martin and Matt Ryan in the playoffs. 1-4. Their one playoff win was against a crap road team who have been traveling all over the country and came out cold! If seahawks come rested to that game they win. Atlanta is the most over rated first seed ever and that's saying something cause most don't rate them. 

can they cover? Yeah. because if the line value if they get turnovers and capitialise then yes this is sports anything is possible. But I have a sTRONG opinion San Fran wins ML. therefore how can I back the value? I think San Fran wins by between 7 and 10. 

I've been seen it in millions I threads. There is no value in a losing slip....Atlanta has let down people over and over. last week they did not cover. The line went off -3 at kickoff. they probably won't cover here...

why do people back a team that always never shows? The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. backing Atlanta and expecting to deliver in the playoffs is a ridiculous way to lose hard earned money....WATCH...
 
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Posted: #13
Line now at SF - 5
 
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Posted: #14
VZ--the OP is getting 4.5, but also getting juiced at -155.
 
Captain
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Posted: #15
line now 5 at sportsbook -110
 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by Mack05:

sizer Vegas has set the bait and Falcons backers have bitten. yes there is value in the Falcons line but 49ers are not being denied against a team like Atlanta. 49ers are going to win. Falcons couldn't have a worse matchup. a defence that can't pressure the QB means CK won't be under pressure all day. Abraham not going to be 100%. 

San Fran solid run D and besides last week Turner has been a average this season. There is a strong chance the 49ers D shuts down the Falcons run and if that happens Matt R will make mistakes. Sometimes you ignore trends, regular season records, value, home records and you focus on JUST the matchup. 49ers are the better team, better coach, have conference experience from last year. 49ers are one of my fav plays this year. I have already unloaded on the ML and if I get the ML for a good price in running I will unload on the ML again...

Forget what the line should be. Focus on Steve Martin and Matt Ryan in the playoffs. 1-4. Their one playoff win was against a crap road team who have been traveling all over the country and came out cold! If seahawks come rested to that game they win. Atlanta is the most over rated first seed ever and that's saying something cause most don't rate them. 

can they cover? Yeah. because if the line value if they get turnovers and capitialise then yes this is sports anything is possible. But I have a sTRONG opinion San Fran wins ML. therefore how can I back the value? I think San Fran wins by between 7 and 10. 

I've been seen it in millions I threads. There is no value in a losing slip....Atlanta has let down people over and over. last week they did not cover. The line went off -3 at kickoff. they probably won't cover here...

why do people back a team that always never shows? The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. backing Atlanta and expecting to deliver in the playoffs is a ridiculous way to lose hard earned money....WATCH...

 


 Yes..lets not focus on all that crap. Lets focus on Sfrans last 4 road opponents. Lets focus on SF's  Offensive and defensive pure points per game during thier last 4 road game series vs Seattle,NE, STL and NOrleans, and how they fared on the road vs those opponents and their average opponents power rating.

SanFrans  last 4 games on road:

Opponent/Final/ opp's power rating.

Seattle  11-42      27.5
NEng     27-34     30.5
STL        14-9      19.5
NO         17-21    19.5
                69-106    24

As we can see so far Sfran's total offense is 69 or 17 pure pts per game. with a total defense of 106 or 27 pure points per game

My calculations have SF as a negative true differential road team which in my handicapping experience..we call trash.

69 - 106 = - 37 true differential ( negative 37) a -37 ?? good defense 27 pppg ?  Thats not going to get it done my friend, I dont care what their defensive YPR is. Points is what matters, and if thats what SF is bringing into Atlanta.with their defense pointwise.... They will be going home and Atlatnat will win this game,

...more to come

- The storms will come, the storms will pass -
 
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Posted: #17
as you can see, SanFrans average opponents power rating is a 24. Now lets take SF's - 37 true point ( road) differential and add 3pts to it for each road game.( -37 + 12 = (- 25 points)

-25 points divided by the 4 games = - 6.25 pppg.

SF is losing to their A.O.P.R  by - 6 pppg ( rounded off).

SF a.o.p.r --> 24 -6 =   18

Remember that # (18). Thats what SF's road rating is for this game

...on to Atlanta in a moment
- The storms will come, the storms will pass -
 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by Wizerguy:


 


 Yes..lets not focus on all that crap. Lets focus on Sfrans last 4 road opponents. Lets focus on SF's  Offensive and defensive pure points per game during thier last 4 road game series vs Seattle,NE, STL and NOrleans, and how they fared on the road vs those opponents and their average opponents power rating.

SanFrans  last 4 games on road:

Opponent/Final/ opp's power rating.

Seattle  11-42      27.5
NEng     27-34     30.5
STL        14-9      19.5
NO         17-21    19.5
                69-106    24

As we can see so far Sfran's total offense is 69 or 17 pure pts per game. with a total defense of 106 or 27 pure points per game

My calculations have SF as a negative true differential road team which in my handicapping experience..we call trash.

69 - 106 = - 37 true differential ( negative 37) a -37 ?? good defense 27 pppg ?  Thats not going to get it done my friend, I dont care what their defensive YPR is. Points is what matters, and if thats what SF is bringing into Atlanta.with their defense pointwise.... They will be going home and Atlatnat will win this game,

...more to come


Now this is good info. Finally a Falcons backer with Football reasoning behind his plays...

Seattle and St Louis are bad matchups for San Fran and for the next few years that won't change. Seattle away was a great spot fipornthe hawks (I win big on that). San Fran travelling to East Coast wins a huge game then has to travel back home and then up to play an awesome home team and a divisional rival to boot. 

Rams are a matchup team. You either matchup well against them and they look horrible or you matchup bad and they don't look half bad. 

San Fran looked awesome in New Orleans against a better offence then Atlantas. 

I find it amazing Falcons backers are ignoring their recent playoff record as if it has no consequence. ignoring how they let the Hawks back into the game..You can give me all the numbers and trends you want. SAn Fran wins here. if they win by 3 points great for us both. I just think Atlanta does what it always does. loses a playoff game ATS...

I can see the threads now. mike smith sucks, Matty ice sucks and I will be chugging away on beers and cocktails putting a small saver on Ravens + 9
 
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Posted: #19
Wizer I'd be interested what your numbers look like if you threw out the Seattle game, which I consider an outlier and/or if you includes all 8 road games this season.
 
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Posted: #20
@ Green Bay @jets @ Minnesota and @ Arizona count just as much if you're objectively looking at the numbers. They were 3-1 in those road games and those 3 wins were blowouts.
 
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Posted: #21
So you counted a blowout loss against Seattle in what was a very tough spot, but didn't count the blowout jets win which was a good spot for the niners.

Perhaps you are looking at only the road games kaepernick started. I don't agree with that type of capping, but its okay to disagree if that's why you omitted the other 4 road games.
 
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by Mack05:

San Fran looked awesome in New Orleans against a better offence then Atlantas. 

please tell me you dont seriously believe this...new orleans had the worst statistical defense in the past 20 or 30 years. bottom 2 in opp PPG, most yards allowed per game, last in rush defense, bottom 2 in pass defense. 
 
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Posted: #23
woops carry on. i read defense. shoot me now. LOL! sorry bro carry on.
 
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Posted: #24
hmmmm   my Falcons +3     +110  lookin pretty good right about now.....
 
 
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by ROVIN56:

hmmmm   my Falcons +3     +110  lookin pretty good right about now.....

i really wish i had grabbed 3.5 +120 when it first came out at my book! when i went to put it in, it changed to +3.5 -120 immediately 
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