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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Does anyone remember the record on fading a playoff team who scores 45+ the round before???
hawgpix send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: MGM Grand |
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#1
Posted: 1/14/2013 8:11:19 PM
Seems like I remember 22-3 after last year... Might be 18-3 though.  Thanks if you can find it...  
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#2
Posted: 1/14/2013 8:11:48 PM
idk but i remember it being a really good stat.
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i_Win_u_Lose
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#3
Posted: 1/14/2013 9:36:30 PM
True but ... Seems good to fade that team ... But i wouldn't be surprise if Brady and crew put up 45+ again this week ..... 
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#4
Posted: 1/14/2013 9:39:10 PM
LOL ...... My badz .... niners
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#5
Posted: 1/14/2013 9:39:14 PM
patriots didnt put up 45. he's talking about 9ers
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Yavapai send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: WilliamHill.com |
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#6
Posted: 1/14/2013 10:08:31 PM

teams that score 40 or more are great fades the next game.

Current run is 2-16 ats and 1-9 ats the last 10.

If you use 45 points plus these teams are 1-9 ats.

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#7
Posted: 1/14/2013 10:11:58 PM
Were any of those games playoff games? 
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#8
Posted: 1/14/2013 10:12:52 PM
I have no idea how some one can risk their money on a trend. The score out one of some historic/old game has absolute jackshit to do with this weeks games. It's comical when I see these types of threads.
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#9
Posted: 1/14/2013 10:19:41 PM
Pats in the AFCC and NO@SF were 2 ATS losers with this trend last year.

The trend is not comical. When a team scores 45, they amaze everyone, their stock goes way up, and they get an inflated line the next week. Seeing that big time with SF now.

Get to Fade a first year starter riding the biggest hype wave of all time.

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#10
Posted: 1/14/2013 10:21:05 PM
This trend is bullshit. Seattle Scored 58,50 and 42 3 weeks in a row this year and went 3-0 ATS.... So there's 3 wins right there 
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#11
Posted: 1/14/2013 10:22:09 PM
Not only inflated line, but overconfidence from the team that scored followed up with a letdown. This is the NFL and no team matches even close to that production in consecutive weeks, ever.


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#12
Posted: 1/14/2013 10:23:08 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by FSerpico:

I have no idea how some one can risk their money on a trend. The score out one of some historic/old game has absolute jackshit to do with this weeks games. It's comical when I see these types of threads.


Obviously if you flip coins 10 times (look for random patterns) you are going to find 8-2 9-1 runs one way or another (the Celtics are 8-1 ats in there last 9 away games when it is raining in Boston at the time of tip off). However, some trends may have a logical basis behind them such as a team scoring a shitton of points with the country watching on national tv and their line being inflated the next week.
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#13
Posted: 1/14/2013 10:24:00 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BarrelledIn:

Pats in the AFCC and NO@SF were 2 ATS losers with this trend last year.

The trend is not comical. When a team scores 45, they amaze everyone, their stock goes way up, and they get an inflated line the next week. Seeing that big time with SF now.

Get to Fade a first year starter riding the biggest hype wave of all time.



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#14
Posted: 1/14/2013 10:29:04 PM
Hawg not sure however I play the under on this one coming up in AFC championship 
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#15
Posted: 1/14/2013 10:31:11 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by cruz20:

This trend is bullshit. Seattle Scored 58,50 and 42 3 weeks in a row this year and went 3-0 ATS.... So there's 3 wins right there 

first two games were buffalo and arizona hardly playoff teams
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#16
Posted: 1/14/2013 10:35:21 PM
The record is for PLAYOFF GAMES ONLY, read the oringinal post to this thread!!
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#17
Posted: 1/14/2013 10:36:47 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by cruz20:

Were any of those games playoff games? 

All results are from Post Season games.

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#18
Posted: 1/14/2013 10:40:46 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by FSerpico:

I have no idea how some one can risk their money on a trend. The score out one of some historic/old game has absolute jackshit to do with this weeks games. It's comical when I see these types of threads.

Completely true, yet completely false.

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#19
Posted: 1/14/2013 10:41:52 PM
What's the source? Thanks.

The one ATS win looks to be 2010 GB@CHI, and that was close to a fluke.

Was one of the worst Offensive games GB has had under Rodgers in years. Only scored 14 points and only covered because of D + Cutler hurt + Raji pick 6.
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#20
Posted: 1/14/2013 10:41:59 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by BarrelledIn:

Pats in the AFCC and NO@SF were 2 ATS losers with this trend last year.

The trend is not comical. When a team scores 45, they amaze everyone, their stock goes way up, and they get an inflated line the next week. Seeing that big time with SF now.

Get to Fade a first year starter riding the biggest hype wave of all time.

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#21
Posted: 1/14/2013 10:50:24 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by BarrelledIn:

What's the source? Thanks.

The one ATS win looks to be 2010 GB@CHI, and that was close to a fluke.

Was one of the worst Offensive games GB has had under Rodgers in years. Only scored 14 points and only covered because of D + Cutler hurt + Raji pick 6.

You are correct with the win being the Packers in 2010.

My source for the numbers are a former co-worker whom I worked with at a Strip casino that at one time was the best sports book wagering wise.

My source a gentleman named NFLAnthony has a library of information and he was just telling me yesterday of this angle again, which we have known of for years.

 

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#22
Posted: 1/14/2013 10:59:58 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by FSerpico:

I have no idea how some one can risk their money on a trend. The score out one of some historic/old game has absolute jackshit to do with this weeks games. It's comical when I see these types of threads.

Not risking my money on the trend alone, it's just a tool to add to my confidence....but after all Serpico, the key to your comment is that it is MY MONEY! A trend like this is successful over the long run because of avg gamblers that do read too much into a team having an over par week, and thinking it will continue.  Vegas just adds points (esp in playoff scenarios) to get the 50/50 action. 

Result is that the team scoring 45+ is fade material over the long haul.  I never said ATL can't lose.  But they are in a good spot at home this week. 
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#23
Posted: 1/15/2013 1:34:45 AM
3-19
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#24
Posted: 1/15/2013 2:26:11 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by cruz20:

This trend is bullshit. Seattle Scored 58,50 and 42 3 weeks in a row this year and went 3-0 ATS.... So there's 3 wins right there 



the stat mentioned is for playoff games only. covers had the article up on the site as of 3 pm today.
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#25
Posted: 1/15/2013 2:28:41 AM
http://www.covers.com/articles/articles.aspx?theArt=302571
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