nfl playoff 3 (6-1)

3-1 wildcard wknd.
3-0 div games.
6-1 overall.

good weekend with one push on Atl-2

posting early this week since i believe the line will go against me.

the easy one :

Balt -10 (-130)

bought it upto -10

These teams know each other well. Playing at Foxboro is nothing new to the Ravens. They are also used to competing in cold weather. One thing Patriots cannot prepare completely is the play calling of Jim Caldwell.
I bitched about conservative play-calling by the previous OC Cam last year and beginning of this year. It took a while but the Offense now looks comfortable in its scheme and the Defense is finally putting some pressure on the opposing QBs.
Obviously, NE can win this game SU.. but ATS, i will gladly take the DD spread and take my chance. This Raven team will not be blown out (like the Texans) The last time NE blew out the Ravens by more than 9 points? about 10 years ago. It should come down to a field goal or a touchdown at the end.

now the square play :

SF -3 (-130)

i bought it down to -3 @ -130 last night since i thought the line will hit -4+ by game time. I really wanted to take the home underdog getting +3.5.. but i just couldn't.
I took ATL -2 when they played Seattle last week, since i thought Seattle players were little beat up from the previous physical games and the long travels. This week, the tough game vs the Hawks will have its affect on the Falcon players. The 49ers game was not as physical so i think they are pretty healthy.This will show in the 2nd half, IMO.
Expect a close game for the 1st half.. than 49ers pulling away in the 2nd half.. winning easily by 10+

CrazyCarlitos

LIKE THE UNDER ALOT AND THE -4-,,,SAN FRAN

the line is now SF -4.5 (-110) at 5D.

Interesting- out of these games, San Francisco is the "square game."

The whole world is on Baltimore.

haha u r right.. they are both square plays.

But it felt more 'square' to take the away-team (SF) giving more than a field goal to a team with great home-field record (Atl).

obviously, this was Balt +10 (-130)

line is now creeping for Bal@NE

its now +10 @ -137

Perhaps Vegas was trying to get all the NE teaser $ first


the SF is -3 @ -142

looks like the sharps are buying at Atl +5..

Baltimore is not the square play.  Less than 60% on them at the moment and it'll be 50/50 at least by the weekend.  Public is already jumping on the Pats at -7

labeling it is not really important.. and certainly not worth a long discussion.

looking for additional insights to SF@Atl and Bal@NE.. thx !

Ton of cash coming in on Balt this week. Should see 7.5 later today or by noon tomorrow. Patriot bettors are waiting by gameday to grab -7 at -120. Local books are taking in more Balt money than expected. If you like the Pats then tease them to -1 with the Over.  Stay away from the Mirage books since their juice is too high and getting killed on teasers.

this is just an initial thought, but i would be tempted to take the points in the Har-bowl since Ravens would have to first win this NE game as a huge ML underdog.

However.. if SF can cover the -3.5 convincingly against the well-balanced Atlanta team in a hostile environment, i would have to say SF-3.5 vs Balt would be my play.

Balt is similar to Atl, but with a better head coach, no?

Also, i really have to keep my eye on the the run defense of the Ravens this week with their key players back. Obviously they were not tested against Denver or Indy. If they cannot stop the RBs of NE, they certainly will not be able to slow down SF's RBs or contain their QB. That would be huge.. and i would then definitely take SF -3.5

But i reserve the right to change my mind..

I see 69% to Baltimore here: https://pregame.com/sportsbook_spy/default.aspx

and 62% here: https://www.sbrforum.com/betting-odds/consensus/
with

Not sure 'bout the Balty pick but I do know SF is a definite LOCK. 

At this point Baltimore and SF are the public plays as 

1-1 down 30. Cents and you wonder why books win

If u go 1-1, ur losing the juice anyways. That's why we try to hit 2-1, right?

Btw, I don't always lay -130.. It's prob my max on football game.https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=101528097

Then you should lay -130 6.5 point teaser with NE -1 and over 45.

THen SF +3 and over 42.5

Cardinal sin ! LOCK means in NFL betting !

Almost game time !

if you like SF by 10 + today, then why buy points and pay more juice.  Take the alternate line -7.5 for +145

Because sh1t happens... 

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