Packers +3: The Niners are definitely one of the best teams in the NFL, but they are extremely inconsistent offensively and Justin Smith is going to be playing injured if at all. The typical recovery time from his injury would have had him out through the playoffs. I don't doubt that he's a physical freak and will recover faster than most players, but I simply cannot see him being effective enough to draw double teams like he normally does, which makes Aldon Smith the terror that he is. He's also their best run stopper up front. Basically, the single best thing about the SF DL is going to be seriously hampered. This was going to be the biggest edge SF had on GB, but I don't see them coming through on Saturday. Rodgers will be able to put up some solid numbers with his receiving corps another week stronger, and I think Kaep will make some bad mistakes while trying to keep up. Basically picture Brady scoring almost at will a couple weeks ago, and then picture Kaep actually facing a solid pass defense. Score Prediction: 31-17 Packers.
Seahawks +3 -120: This is actually my favorite game of the weekend. The Seahawks are the perfect team to handle the Falcons. Two huge elite CBs, and a top ground game. Lynch should be able to run all over the Falcons and while the Falcons have been looking great offensively this year, let's not forget that the only playoff team to play an easier schedule this year was the Colts, and look how they were exposed when actually facing a solid team. Furthermore, the good teams they beat, they beat because their opponents were trying to throw the ball 40+ times against them. The way to beat this team is to run all over them. More than that, I expect Sherman to go to work on Julio early and frustrate him all game long. Don't be surprised if there are a few illegal contact or holding penalties on these Seattle CBs, but the way to stop Julio and Roddy is to get physical with them. Gonzalez should have a solid day, but he's not going to be enough to win.
AFC write-ups coming when I get time.
0
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
2-1 Wildcard Weekend
Packers +3: The Niners are definitely one of the best teams in the NFL, but they are extremely inconsistent offensively and Justin Smith is going to be playing injured if at all. The typical recovery time from his injury would have had him out through the playoffs. I don't doubt that he's a physical freak and will recover faster than most players, but I simply cannot see him being effective enough to draw double teams like he normally does, which makes Aldon Smith the terror that he is. He's also their best run stopper up front. Basically, the single best thing about the SF DL is going to be seriously hampered. This was going to be the biggest edge SF had on GB, but I don't see them coming through on Saturday. Rodgers will be able to put up some solid numbers with his receiving corps another week stronger, and I think Kaep will make some bad mistakes while trying to keep up. Basically picture Brady scoring almost at will a couple weeks ago, and then picture Kaep actually facing a solid pass defense. Score Prediction: 31-17 Packers.
Seahawks +3 -120: This is actually my favorite game of the weekend. The Seahawks are the perfect team to handle the Falcons. Two huge elite CBs, and a top ground game. Lynch should be able to run all over the Falcons and while the Falcons have been looking great offensively this year, let's not forget that the only playoff team to play an easier schedule this year was the Colts, and look how they were exposed when actually facing a solid team. Furthermore, the good teams they beat, they beat because their opponents were trying to throw the ball 40+ times against them. The way to beat this team is to run all over them. More than that, I expect Sherman to go to work on Julio early and frustrate him all game long. Don't be surprised if there are a few illegal contact or holding penalties on these Seattle CBs, but the way to stop Julio and Roddy is to get physical with them. Gonzalez should have a solid day, but he's not going to be enough to win.
love the packers falcons will win at home IMO they are far more loaded for bear than the redskins were and doubt seahawks can keep scoring with them...sure you can cover one or two of the falcon receivers but they will find openings plus the solid run game will open it all up... their 0-3 playoff drought ends here
0
love the packers falcons will win at home IMO they are far more loaded for bear than the redskins were and doubt seahawks can keep scoring with them...sure you can cover one or two of the falcon receivers but they will find openings plus the solid run game will open it all up... their 0-3 playoff drought ends here
ROVIN: I don't see what the Falcons having a better offense than the Bears or Redskins has to do with their likelihood of winning this game.
More importantly, the Falcons have one of the worst run games in the league. Seriously. They're a bottom 5 rushing team by almost every metric. The way they've been winning games is through the air, not that there's anything wrong with that, but when you have a 10th ranked DVOA through the air and a 29th ranked DVOA on the ground, you're pretty much a one dimensional offense. What makes their air attack so good is having two elite WRs and an elite TE. When you're going up against the number 3 pass defense, who are so good because of elite CBs, you have to think their edge is going to be muted in this one.
On the other side of the ball, the Falcons are the 20th ranked rush defense facing the 1st ranked rush offense. This is the biggest mismatch in the game, and the reason I like the Seahawks so much. Beast Mode.
Barnstorm: I think the Falcons will go no-huddle plenty to try to get any edge they can. I don't think it will be totally effective. No real lean on the total. I think it's about right.
0
ROVIN: I don't see what the Falcons having a better offense than the Bears or Redskins has to do with their likelihood of winning this game.
More importantly, the Falcons have one of the worst run games in the league. Seriously. They're a bottom 5 rushing team by almost every metric. The way they've been winning games is through the air, not that there's anything wrong with that, but when you have a 10th ranked DVOA through the air and a 29th ranked DVOA on the ground, you're pretty much a one dimensional offense. What makes their air attack so good is having two elite WRs and an elite TE. When you're going up against the number 3 pass defense, who are so good because of elite CBs, you have to think their edge is going to be muted in this one.
On the other side of the ball, the Falcons are the 20th ranked rush defense facing the 1st ranked rush offense. This is the biggest mismatch in the game, and the reason I like the Seahawks so much. Beast Mode.
Barnstorm: I think the Falcons will go no-huddle plenty to try to get any edge they can. I don't think it will be totally effective. No real lean on the total. I think it's about right.
ROVIN: I don't see what the Falcons having a better offense than the Bears or Redskins has to do with their likelihood of winning this game.
More importantly, the Falcons have one of the worst run games in the league. Seriously. They're a bottom 5 rushing team by almost every metric. The way they've been winning games is through the air, not that there's anything wrong with that, but when you have a 10th ranked DVOA through the air and a 29th ranked DVOA on the ground, you're pretty much a one dimensional offense. What makes their air attack so good is having two elite WRs and an elite TE. When you're going up against the number 3 pass defense, who are so good because of elite CBs, you have to think their edge is going to be muted in this one.
On the other side of the ball, the Falcons are the 20th ranked rush defense facing the 1st ranked rush offense. This is the biggest mismatch in the game, and the reason I like the Seahawks so much. Beast Mode.
Barnstorm: I think the Falcons will go no-huddle plenty to try to get any edge they can. I don't think it will be totally effective. No real lean on the total. I think it's about right.
One thing to keep in mind is size of DBs vs. WRs. I think that what has made secondary great this year is seattle's size vs. opposition.
Aren't Jones and White similar size? And gonzalez has to be bigger than all of them.
0
Quote Originally Posted by Werker:
ROVIN: I don't see what the Falcons having a better offense than the Bears or Redskins has to do with their likelihood of winning this game.
More importantly, the Falcons have one of the worst run games in the league. Seriously. They're a bottom 5 rushing team by almost every metric. The way they've been winning games is through the air, not that there's anything wrong with that, but when you have a 10th ranked DVOA through the air and a 29th ranked DVOA on the ground, you're pretty much a one dimensional offense. What makes their air attack so good is having two elite WRs and an elite TE. When you're going up against the number 3 pass defense, who are so good because of elite CBs, you have to think their edge is going to be muted in this one.
On the other side of the ball, the Falcons are the 20th ranked rush defense facing the 1st ranked rush offense. This is the biggest mismatch in the game, and the reason I like the Seahawks so much. Beast Mode.
Barnstorm: I think the Falcons will go no-huddle plenty to try to get any edge they can. I don't think it will be totally effective. No real lean on the total. I think it's about right.
One thing to keep in mind is size of DBs vs. WRs. I think that what has made secondary great this year is seattle's size vs. opposition.
Aren't Jones and White similar size? And gonzalez has to be bigger than all of them.
One thing to keep in mind is size of DBs vs. WRs. I think that what has made secondary great this year is seattle's size vs. opposition.
Aren't Jones and White similar size? And gonzalez has to be bigger than all of them.
I've talked about the size of Sherman and Browner. It's very relevant. And White isn't the biggest receiver. His talent is more about football intelligence, route running, and body control. Julio has 3 inches and 20 lbs on him (conservatively). His talent lies in his athleticism. Both Browner and Sherman can physically hang with either guy. Gonzalez is a beast, but nothing dramatically bigger than most NFL TEs. He's got a major talent for getting open though, and as I said, I expect him to do pretty well this weekend. Their depth behind those guys is pretty questionable. Harry Douglas is not good, and he's the best of what they have receiving beyond their trio. Basically if Julio, Roddy and Gonzalez can't combine for 200 yards, I think they have no hope of winning. I don't see them getting there, and I don't love their odds anyway.
0
Quote Originally Posted by BigBadBruin:
One thing to keep in mind is size of DBs vs. WRs. I think that what has made secondary great this year is seattle's size vs. opposition.
Aren't Jones and White similar size? And gonzalez has to be bigger than all of them.
I've talked about the size of Sherman and Browner. It's very relevant. And White isn't the biggest receiver. His talent is more about football intelligence, route running, and body control. Julio has 3 inches and 20 lbs on him (conservatively). His talent lies in his athleticism. Both Browner and Sherman can physically hang with either guy. Gonzalez is a beast, but nothing dramatically bigger than most NFL TEs. He's got a major talent for getting open though, and as I said, I expect him to do pretty well this weekend. Their depth behind those guys is pretty questionable. Harry Douglas is not good, and he's the best of what they have receiving beyond their trio. Basically if Julio, Roddy and Gonzalez can't combine for 200 yards, I think they have no hope of winning. I don't see them getting there, and I don't love their odds anyway.
Werker, how is it going my friend. I made a first half bet on the Ravens at +7. It seems to me Broncos are a better second half ball club averaging a TD more in the second half. If you looked at a lot of their blow out wins you would be surprised how many of them were close at halftime. Fox has always deferred if he wins the opening toss but teams have caught on and do likewise but it gives you a hint at Bronco's mindset. I think getting blown out in the first game gives the Ravens a motivational edge and if you looked at the ten times Harbaugh has been in playoffs he's only lost by more than ten once. Ravens definitely on the mend and in better shape physically than the first matchup. I don't know if you read andarmac99's write up you might have seen this trend, I haven't forgot - you're not a trend guy, but teams that have won 8 or more straight games to enter the playoffs and then get a week off before the divisional round and are 3+ favorites are ATS 3-16. I guess it's the rust vs rest thing.
I'm leaning ATLANTA but I certainly can't disagree with any of your arguments. Seattle off of a physical game and they have to go back east once again. I wonder how much losing Clemons will hurt HAWKS and listened to Greg Cosell on the Herd show, he watches a ton of film, and he seems to think that Falcon's receivers will be okay against Browner and Sherman; in fact, he said SKINS had people open all day but RGIII couldn't get them the ball. It's a tough spot for the HAWKS in my opinion. I know Falcon's played a powder puff schedule, and not so true for Hawks, but Atlanta is the only team in the league not to lose a game against an above .500 team. I think Atlanta has played well when they've had to.
Hey, I see you're betting BBall. Man that sport is a mutilation machine! I've never been on so many losing streaks in my life and I'm not handicapping games I'm just tailing people in the forums. Make money in football - lose money in basketball. Hey good luck and have a great weekend with the action.
0
Werker, how is it going my friend. I made a first half bet on the Ravens at +7. It seems to me Broncos are a better second half ball club averaging a TD more in the second half. If you looked at a lot of their blow out wins you would be surprised how many of them were close at halftime. Fox has always deferred if he wins the opening toss but teams have caught on and do likewise but it gives you a hint at Bronco's mindset. I think getting blown out in the first game gives the Ravens a motivational edge and if you looked at the ten times Harbaugh has been in playoffs he's only lost by more than ten once. Ravens definitely on the mend and in better shape physically than the first matchup. I don't know if you read andarmac99's write up you might have seen this trend, I haven't forgot - you're not a trend guy, but teams that have won 8 or more straight games to enter the playoffs and then get a week off before the divisional round and are 3+ favorites are ATS 3-16. I guess it's the rust vs rest thing.
I'm leaning ATLANTA but I certainly can't disagree with any of your arguments. Seattle off of a physical game and they have to go back east once again. I wonder how much losing Clemons will hurt HAWKS and listened to Greg Cosell on the Herd show, he watches a ton of film, and he seems to think that Falcon's receivers will be okay against Browner and Sherman; in fact, he said SKINS had people open all day but RGIII couldn't get them the ball. It's a tough spot for the HAWKS in my opinion. I know Falcon's played a powder puff schedule, and not so true for Hawks, but Atlanta is the only team in the league not to lose a game against an above .500 team. I think Atlanta has played well when they've had to.
Hey, I see you're betting BBall. Man that sport is a mutilation machine! I've never been on so many losing streaks in my life and I'm not handicapping games I'm just tailing people in the forums. Make money in football - lose money in basketball. Hey good luck and have a great weekend with the action.
Shiva: Good to hear from you. That first half play on the Ravens might end up being the better bet. I have noticed that the Broncos have pulled away in the 2nd half. If I could get +7, I'd DEFINITELY have added it, but I can only get +6.5. Shame. You remember correctly, that I'm not a trend guy, but I think the Harbaugh trend of not getting blown out in the playoffs is actually relevant. Coaching matter SO much in the NFL and he's got a proven track record of staying in games. But you are right, I don't get care about the other trend. If you were talking ATS, it would have some relevance, because the books would have to adjust. And I don't hate the fact that, despite winning 11 in a row SU, their biggest ATS streak was 4. It does make sense that it takes the books a few weeks to adjust to inflating the line big enough. I wonder if you took that same set of games that andarmac99 was talking about, how many of those teams won SU? I'd bet a solid majority.
I'd say going east, then west, then east could have an effect on a team that's playing some random mid to late season game that doesn't mean a whole lot, but I'm just not going to buy that it's going to hurt a team in the playoffs. It's what everyone's playing the game for! I actually don't think that losing Clemons will hurt them SO much. Irvin is on par with Clemons as a pass rusher, and the Falcons can't run the ball anyway. I heard the Cossell segment too. Something to realize though is that the Seahawks were cheating to play the run in a major way, especially when they saw RG3 couldn't throw, so the fact that there were guys open in that game is not in anyway surprising. As far as Jones and White v Sherman and Browner goes, I'm sure it will be a tough battle and I don't think either side dominates the other, but when you're talking about a team that can do almost nothing on offense but throw to those two guys (and Gonzalez), I think it slows them down enough to beat them. I disagree that the Falcons have played well when they've had to. They had the easiest schedule in football. There was never any must-win situation.
Hehe, yeah, BBall can definitely get rough sometimes, but I've actually been pretty steady with it. Props have been especially good to me. I would actually say that live-betting is my single biggest contributor to my p&l, but I don't post any of those results. I love live betting so much. With the NBA being so much a game of runs, it's just the perfect tool. Highly recommended...as a rule, just taking the favorite getting 10+ points off of the spread would probably be a profitable strategy. I'm a little more discerning than that, but that's the gist.
Hope you're doing well and good luck.
0
Shiva: Good to hear from you. That first half play on the Ravens might end up being the better bet. I have noticed that the Broncos have pulled away in the 2nd half. If I could get +7, I'd DEFINITELY have added it, but I can only get +6.5. Shame. You remember correctly, that I'm not a trend guy, but I think the Harbaugh trend of not getting blown out in the playoffs is actually relevant. Coaching matter SO much in the NFL and he's got a proven track record of staying in games. But you are right, I don't get care about the other trend. If you were talking ATS, it would have some relevance, because the books would have to adjust. And I don't hate the fact that, despite winning 11 in a row SU, their biggest ATS streak was 4. It does make sense that it takes the books a few weeks to adjust to inflating the line big enough. I wonder if you took that same set of games that andarmac99 was talking about, how many of those teams won SU? I'd bet a solid majority.
I'd say going east, then west, then east could have an effect on a team that's playing some random mid to late season game that doesn't mean a whole lot, but I'm just not going to buy that it's going to hurt a team in the playoffs. It's what everyone's playing the game for! I actually don't think that losing Clemons will hurt them SO much. Irvin is on par with Clemons as a pass rusher, and the Falcons can't run the ball anyway. I heard the Cossell segment too. Something to realize though is that the Seahawks were cheating to play the run in a major way, especially when they saw RG3 couldn't throw, so the fact that there were guys open in that game is not in anyway surprising. As far as Jones and White v Sherman and Browner goes, I'm sure it will be a tough battle and I don't think either side dominates the other, but when you're talking about a team that can do almost nothing on offense but throw to those two guys (and Gonzalez), I think it slows them down enough to beat them. I disagree that the Falcons have played well when they've had to. They had the easiest schedule in football. There was never any must-win situation.
Hehe, yeah, BBall can definitely get rough sometimes, but I've actually been pretty steady with it. Props have been especially good to me. I would actually say that live-betting is my single biggest contributor to my p&l, but I don't post any of those results. I love live betting so much. With the NBA being so much a game of runs, it's just the perfect tool. Highly recommended...as a rule, just taking the favorite getting 10+ points off of the spread would probably be a profitable strategy. I'm a little more discerning than that, but that's the gist.
Cobb o58.5 yds: SF has struggled against slot receivers (relative to the other receiving positions), and Cobb has been the most important WR on the field for the Pack this year.
Lamichael James o30.5 rush + rec yds: The guy can play. Anyone who saw him at Oregon knows that. And since SF has given him a chance, he's looked great. On top of that, he's the more dangerous receiver in the SF backfield and GB struggles against RBs in the passing game.
0
GB/SF Props:
Cobb o58.5 yds: SF has struggled against slot receivers (relative to the other receiving positions), and Cobb has been the most important WR on the field for the Pack this year.
Lamichael James o30.5 rush + rec yds: The guy can play. Anyone who saw him at Oregon knows that. And since SF has given him a chance, he's looked great. On top of that, he's the more dangerous receiver in the SF backfield and GB struggles against RBs in the passing game.
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on
this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide
any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in
your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner
of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.
love the packers falcons will win at home IMO they are far more loaded for bear than the redskins were and doubt seahawks can keep scoring with them...sure you can cover one or two of the falcon receivers but they will find openings plus the solid run game will open it all up... their 0-3 playoff drought ends here 
Hot Forum Topics
