Posted:
#1
YTD: 52-38 ATS
Season Win Totals: 4-2 ATS
Futures: -0.31 units (DEN +900 AFC and +2500 SB at 0.5 units a piece pending)
Baltimore +9
This play is not based on any numbers or stats or matchups because no matter how you look at it Denver is the better team. This is purely a situational play.
Obviously I’m invested in the Broncos and many would say a home game off a bye and rolling is a good spot to be in but I disagree. I’m much more worried about this game than a potential Patriots matchup next week. Every season there are 1 or 2 teams you look at and say wow the bye week really hurt them. I believe that team is Denver this year. They have won 11 games in a row. They won their last 4 games by almost 21 PPG. They were healthy and clicking on all cylinders. The last thing this team needed was a bye week to disrupt their rhythm because history suggests it will be hard to get back. Since 1990 teams that entered the playoffs on 8+ game winning streaks and had a bye week managed to go a woeful 3-16 ATS the rest of the way when laying a FG or more. Hitting their highpoint too early perhaps?
Even though they have Manning and he should keep them sharp through the bye, the fact is that 4 times in his career Manning has had a 1st round bye and in those games his teams are 1-3 SU & ATS and his teams have put up the following point totals:
20: On a team that averaged 26.0 PPG
24: On a team that averaged 28.1 PPG
18: On a team that averaged 27.4 PPG
16: On a team that averaged 26.4 PPG
Another Denver element here is pressure. They have the Elway, Fox, Manning triumvirate at the top but the rest of the roster is relatively young and hasn’t had to deal with real playoff pressure and expectations. I know they played two playoff games last year but that was with Tebow and as huge dogs they weren’t expected to do diddly squat. This time around everyone is penciling them in for the AFC Championship game showdown with New England.
On the other side of the coin are the Ravens. While they may be down a few notches they certainly don’t have any pressure on them. They’ve also got veterans across the board and have the most playoff experience in the NFL. It’s hard to see them being intimidated by this environment especially against a team that may play a little tight. I see a lot of people saying they didn’t play well last week against a far worse team. The reality is these aren’t robots and teams don’t play the same every week and good teams rarely play bad for two weeks in a row. I think it’s more likely they play well this week as opposed to playing the same way as they did against Indy.
I think this is going to be a lot closer than people think.
Season Win Totals: 4-2 ATS
Futures: -0.31 units (DEN +900 AFC and +2500 SB at 0.5 units a piece pending)
Baltimore +9
This play is not based on any numbers or stats or matchups because no matter how you look at it Denver is the better team. This is purely a situational play.
Obviously I’m invested in the Broncos and many would say a home game off a bye and rolling is a good spot to be in but I disagree. I’m much more worried about this game than a potential Patriots matchup next week. Every season there are 1 or 2 teams you look at and say wow the bye week really hurt them. I believe that team is Denver this year. They have won 11 games in a row. They won their last 4 games by almost 21 PPG. They were healthy and clicking on all cylinders. The last thing this team needed was a bye week to disrupt their rhythm because history suggests it will be hard to get back. Since 1990 teams that entered the playoffs on 8+ game winning streaks and had a bye week managed to go a woeful 3-16 ATS the rest of the way when laying a FG or more. Hitting their highpoint too early perhaps?
Even though they have Manning and he should keep them sharp through the bye, the fact is that 4 times in his career Manning has had a 1st round bye and in those games his teams are 1-3 SU & ATS and his teams have put up the following point totals:
20: On a team that averaged 26.0 PPG
24: On a team that averaged 28.1 PPG
18: On a team that averaged 27.4 PPG
16: On a team that averaged 26.4 PPG
Another Denver element here is pressure. They have the Elway, Fox, Manning triumvirate at the top but the rest of the roster is relatively young and hasn’t had to deal with real playoff pressure and expectations. I know they played two playoff games last year but that was with Tebow and as huge dogs they weren’t expected to do diddly squat. This time around everyone is penciling them in for the AFC Championship game showdown with New England.
On the other side of the coin are the Ravens. While they may be down a few notches they certainly don’t have any pressure on them. They’ve also got veterans across the board and have the most playoff experience in the NFL. It’s hard to see them being intimidated by this environment especially against a team that may play a little tight. I see a lot of people saying they didn’t play well last week against a far worse team. The reality is these aren’t robots and teams don’t play the same every week and good teams rarely play bad for two weeks in a row. I think it’s more likely they play well this week as opposed to playing the same way as they did against Indy.
I think this is going to be a lot closer than people think.
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