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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: NFL Week 17 Largest bet of the year for me: Seattle vs St Louis
TRAIN69
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#1
Posted: 12/27/2012 11:10:52 AM
Not a "lock" or goy", just a game I really like. Ive been wrong many times before.....


I dont do "units" on here, but will break it down how I have bet it:


Seattle -9.5 -120  15*

Seattle TT O26  7.5*

STL doesnt win a Half -149 4*

Seattle wins both Halfs +110 3*

STL doesnt win a Quarter +225  2*

Seattle wins 3 quarters +210 2*

Seattle wins 4 quarters +750 1*

Seattle winning margin:

21-25 +1100 .5*

26-30 +1600 .5*

31-35 +2200 .5*

36 or more +3300 .5*



Gotta strike while the iron is hot. I wont bore you with stats like Seattle is unbeaten at home, is averaging over 40 ppg their last 4 games while giving up only 12.....Rams have won 3 straight road games , however, this is their 1st b2b roadie all year and it happens to be on the extreme other side of the USA.....Seattle with everything to play for, and SF will be playing at the same time so no way to sandbag.....



I smell a 41-10 game

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#2
Posted: 12/27/2012 11:31:26 AM
You have to wonder how motivated the Hawks will be. They know San frAn ain't losing to the Cards at home. They know they have a HUGE game next week. Lose next week and the last 3 games mean nothing. I know people will say they won't let the foot off the gas as you never know in the NFL but how can you really be sure there won't be a mental letdown in his spot? The truth is you can't. No play for me...
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#3
Posted: 12/27/2012 11:43:28 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Mack05:

You have to wonder how motivated the Hawks will be. They know San frAn ain't losing to the Cards at home. They know they have a HUGE game next week. Lose next week and the last 3 games mean nothing. I know people will say they won't let the foot off the gas as you never know in the NFL but how can you really be sure there won't be a mental letdown in his spot? The truth is you can't. No play for me...

You tell em! 

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TRAIN69
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#4
Posted: 12/27/2012 12:05:40 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Mack05:

You have to wonder how motivated the Hawks will be. They know San frAn ain't losing to the Cards at home. They know they have a HUGE game next week. Lose next week and the last 3 games mean nothing. I know people will say they won't let the foot off the gas as you never know in the NFL but how can you really be sure there won't be a mental letdown in his spot? The truth is you can't. No play for me...




You didnt discover something new Christopher Columbus. I cant trust the NFL? Nooooooo


When exactly can you know when an NFL squad wont tank? MILLIONS of people sincerely want to know.
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#5
Posted: 12/27/2012 12:28:43 PM
I like it Train, as always, great picks!! 
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#6
Posted: 12/27/2012 12:40:34 PM
Hmmm... I don't know. gl
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#7
Posted: 12/27/2012 12:42:24 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by TRAIN69:





You didnt discover something new Christopher Columbus. I cant trust the NFL? Nooooooo


When exactly can you know when an NFL squad wont tank? MILLIONS of people sincerely want to know.

A very typical spot where teams can count-on to tank, and this happens every year with some-of the largest upsets coming in this spot.

Teams coming of a series of wins and covers, then coming off a big win over a top team in a very meaningful game and playing a team with a losing record that appears easy to beat.

Seattle expended sssoooo much focus, intensity and energy to get all those game and then beat the 49ers in basically a must-win-game.

It is very unlikely Seattle can match that kind of energy, intensity and focus this weak against a weaker op.

The Rams would be one-of my strongest plays this year, what could be a possible out-right upset...........................................

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#8
Posted: 12/27/2012 12:59:54 PM
in-season revenge in play as well.  PC won't let that go unpunished.  i think.  gl
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TRAIN69
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#9
Posted: 12/27/2012 1:34:45 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by theclaw:

A very typical spot where teams can count-on to tank, and this happens every year with some-of the largest upsets coming in this spot.

Teams coming of a series of wins and covers, then coming off a big win over a top team in a very meaningful game and playing a team with a losing record that appears easy to beat.

Seattle expended sssoooo much focus, intensity and energy to get all those game and then beat the 49ers in basically a must-win-game.

It is very unlikely Seattle can match that kind of energy, intensity and focus this weak against a weaker op.

The Rams would be one-of my strongest plays this year, what could be a possible out-right upset...........................................



Good luck with that.
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#10
Posted: 12/27/2012 1:35:28 PM
There's no reason to think the Hawks will take the foot off the pedal, while it's unlikely a Hawks win and a 49ers loss results in Seattle winning the division.
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#11
Posted: 12/27/2012 2:10:16 PM
That's a lot of bets on 1 game, hell in 1 day 

GL Train 
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#12
Posted: 12/27/2012 4:27:50 PM

I like the play. I'm just taking them ML in a bunch of parlays.

Two coaches who I can't see taking their foot off the gas are Belicheck and Carroll.

Plus, Seattle's defense alone will win this game. I also see a big win. I like SEA to cover. BOL

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TRAIN69
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#13
Posted: 12/27/2012 4:41:42 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LawsonJames:

That's a lot of bets on 1 game, hell in 1 day 

GL Train 

I agree. Instead of dropping my whole play on the spread, I like to spread it around with some + money plays and try to maximize my value if I am indeed correct.

But, the Rams may win SU, it is the NFL after all .

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#14
Posted: 12/27/2012 6:46:31 PM

I dunno  its not like the manrams are as bad as kc or jacksonville  besides the hags have clinched a playoff spot  cant see them getting a bye anyways   carrol may at some poitn be looking ahead         

you a daddy yet>>??

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#15
Posted: 12/27/2012 7:00:43 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ROVIN56:

I dunno  its not like the manrams are as bad as kc or jacksonville  besides the hags have clinched a playoff spot  cant see them getting a bye anyways   carrol may at some poitn be looking ahead         

you a daddy yet>>??

Pete Carrol wants to win big. Always has (when hes had the horses)

1 more month

 

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#16
Posted: 12/27/2012 7:48:49 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by theclaw:

A very typical spot where teams can count-on to tank, and this happens every year with some-of the largest upsets coming in this spot.

Teams coming of a series of wins and covers, then coming off a big win over a top team in a very meaningful game and playing a team with a losing record that appears easy to beat.

Seattle expended sssoooo much focus, intensity and energy to get all those game and then beat the 49ers in basically a must-win-game.

It is very unlikely Seattle can match that kind of energy, intensity and focus this weak against a weaker op.

The Rams would be one-of my strongest plays this year, what could be a possible out-right upset...........................................


Seattle at home - with a coach who never takes his foot off the gas pedal - against a team with zilch to play for - equals a blowout win for the 'Hawks.  Yes, some teams in the spot Seattle is in would fade - but not the 'Hawks.  

Train has hit the nail on the head.

But good luck with your bet nonetheless.


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TRAIN69
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#17
Posted: 12/27/2012 7:53:38 PM

Should say this is my biggest NFL bet this year.

Bama over Mizzou was bigger

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#18
Posted: 12/27/2012 7:57:16 PM
Bol Train! 
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#19
Posted: 12/27/2012 8:07:30 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Mack05:

You have to wonder how motivated the Hawks will be. They know San frAn ain't losing to the Cards at home. They know they have a HUGE game next week. Lose next week and the last 3 games mean nothing. I know people will say they won't let the foot off the gas as you never know in the NFL but how can you really be sure there won't be a mental letdown in his spot? The truth is you can't. No play for me...



i promise you with that college coach carroll on the side line he will not take the foot off the gas ever he will  try everything he can too put 50 on em
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#20
Posted: 12/27/2012 8:11:56 PM
Seattle wins 41-14.

Seattle is not a fluke.

I saw a tweet from Pete Carroll asking the crowd to be louder than last week.....but yeah, they will have a letdown 
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#21
Posted: 12/27/2012 8:24:19 PM
 I HOPE THE TRAIN COME THRU THE STATION SMOKIN !!!!!!! GL BRO
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#22
Posted: 12/27/2012 8:58:26 PM
Those SeaHags can really put up the points, not much not to like. This team is complete and ready for a big run...

Good Luck TRAIN...
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#23
Posted: 12/28/2012 12:22:25 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by theclaw:

A very typical spot where teams can count-on to tank, and this happens every year with some-of the largest upsets coming in this spot.

Teams coming of a series of wins and covers, then coming off a big win over a top team in a very meaningful game and playing a team with a losing record that appears easy to beat.

Seattle expended sssoooo much focus, intensity and energy to get all those game and then beat the 49ers in basically a must-win-game.

It is very unlikely Seattle can match that kind of energy, intensity and focus this weak against a weaker op.

The Rams would be one-of my strongest plays this year, what could be a possible out-right upset...........................................

Out right upset? ... You should probably go take a long look in the mirror and find out what else you might be deceiving yourself about in life.

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#24
Posted: 12/28/2012 5:46:09 AM
Last possible home game of the year.......yeah the Hawks go out with a bang............49-10.
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#25
Posted: 12/28/2012 10:43:46 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by _keyser_soze_:


Seattle at home - with a coach who never takes his foot off the gas pedal - against a team with zilch to play for - equals a blowout win for the 'Hawks.  Yes, some teams in the spot Seattle is in would fade - but not the 'Hawks.  

Train has hit the nail on the head.

But good luck with your bet nonetheless.


 

Alot of you guys need to read books by guys like Bill Parcels and Jimmy Johnslon, they talk about this quite a bit.

It's the players who get all giddy coming off wins and big wins and the coach has no control over this, has nothing to do with a coach who doesn't take his foot off the gas, it's the players who must respond with intensity and energy in this game and it's highly' highly likely they won't. 

Can't wait for sunday, see you all then....................................................

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