2nd POSTABLE PLAY of the Year

ATL/DET Over 50.5. 

Again, I only have 1 posted play on these boards this year as my system had its first what I consider Postable Play of the year last week with Cincy. They are few and far apart but this year that's an understatement. This week their happens to be another which happens to be also be another short week. I went 12-4 last week on covers and I'm 151-113 %57.20 +13350 on here so I have something to stand by. On totals only im 80-57 almost %59. Again like last week I will give you a write up of my thoughts with facts of my pick. My system doesn't take any of this really into account but its stuff that catches my eye on top of the system liking it which makes it a Postable Play IMO. First off were in a Dome, always a plus for teams like this. Also with the over at 50.5 if both teams get to 24 we are looking at 48 and then a field goal gives us a win and I do believe both teams get to 24 points. Detroit was embarrassed by Arizona last week and get to come home now and the one thing Det can do is play spoiler and their offense has no pressure on it anymore and Stafford will be chucking the ball all over the place. He may turn it over a few times but so what we don't mind turnovers, they will lead to more scoring in theory.  Also being a short week ATL hasn't had time to really get ready for the Det offense and same goes for the Det defense with the Atl offense that looks like its clicking on all cylinders right now. Atlanta's D is not that great and last week was much more due to the Giants and Eli playing like crap on offense then it was the Falcons doing anything special. Atlanta scores MORE POINTS PER GAME on the road and allows more points per game on the road. Their offense across the board is much better on the road and their defense is significantly worse. They average over %71 COMPLETION PCT on the road. That's crazy. Here's a game where both offenses love to go to their BIG WR's and both secondaries are pretty beat up. Both of Atlantas safties are fighting injuries. Hope fighting a head injury and Moore fighting a hamstring. Not exactly what you want going up against Megatron and the rest of the cast Detroit uses to pick apart the middle of the field. On the other side you have Det with 3 cornerbacks already on IR and Chris Houston with a bad Hamstring who is questionable. Ya, if I'm White and Julio im licking my chops. Detroit's offense had been playing well in general up until last week, especially at home lately vs very good teams. At home recently they put up 33 on Indy, 31 on Houston, 20 on GB and 28 on Seattle. The other part of that is in those same games they allowed a TON of points. 35 to Indy, 34 to Houston, 24 to GB and 24 to Seattle. Atlanta has a habit of getting caught up doing what the other team is doing in close games. they have been like that for a couple years now. If the other team is throwing alot Atlanta throws alot. If the other team is running alot, they lean on Burner. Here Det will be throwing it alot IMO and Atlanta will lean that way. I don't have the exact numbers in front of me to prove this but if you'd like to go research it you will see it matches up. Anyway, GL to all tonight, on another note I like Det +3.5 as well but not enough for me to bet it.  MY PICK IS OVER 50.5.