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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: ONLY PLAY I'VE POSTED ALL YEAR. FEEL EXTREMELY STRONG ABOUT IT.
Raging_Fetus send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 12/13/2012 11:15:15 AM
CINCY -4, I only bet %1-2 of bankroll per game, but ill have %4 on Cincy.

I've been around since 2001, I don't really post much anymore. I usually have maybe a max 5 plays a year that I feel strong enough to post about. Suprisngly here we are in week 13 and this is the first play I've had ALL YEAR strong enough to post about. I'm 139-109 +9550 on Covers so I have some credibility. Anyway, good luck to everyone tonight, I figured I'd share the play my "system" has called strongest so far this year, though I don't love ever being on this side of the public.

Just some of the small stuff that catches my eye is the facts that Asomugha is all banged up and hasn't played well against physical WR's all year and it doesn't get much more physical then A.J. Green. Philly is facing one of the better offensive lines and I beleive Dalton will have all day to pick them apart. On the offensive side for Philly they lost Brent Celek this week who looked like the old Celek since Foles was put in. That's going to basically make the middle of the field no biggie for the OLB's and allow them to slow down that newly found Philly running game which we all know Andy Reid will completely forget about once it starts slow. They also have the issue of being back in Philly. They are 2-4 at home this year. The won their last 2 games both on the road. Getting away was the best medicine for them. They stopped the local never ending media blitz in Philly and were able to play with alot less pressure. Now they are back home where after the first 3 and out Lincoln Fincancial will be rocking the boo's. I also like the fact that CINCY has Pitt and Bal after this week so they know this is basically a must win if they want to solidify their hold on that wild card spot. CINCY is coming off that last second heartbreaking loss to Dallas at home where they will be looking to bounce back and with this being such a short week that will be hot on their mind still. You also have Foles who is for the first time facing no real time for preparation against a team he hasn't seen. The Bengals offense average over a touchdown in both the 1st and 2nd quarters. The Philly defense allows 6 points in the 1st quarter and almost 7 in the 2nd. Opposed to the opposite where the Philly offense averages LESS THEN 2 points in the 1st and barely over 5 in the 2nd where as the Cincy D allows only 2.7 in the first and a tad more disappointing 6.7 in the 2nd. Your also taking about the Bengals only having to travel from Cincy to Philly. About as good as you could ask for in the short week. Where as Philly went from Philly to Dallas. Then they travel back to Philly and then down to Tampa Bay and now during a very short week they fly back from Sunny and beautiful Tampa to 54 degree Philly. Let's not forget Foles went to University of Arizona. Not exactly chilly. He's played decent to good in his starts this year but his very poor start came in the exact same Weather. His other poor/fair start came at home vs Carolina where it was 36 degrees. I think Cincy gets up like 14-3,13-3,14-0,10-0 etc..  and Andy Reid abandons the run and Foles turns into that rookie QB surrounded by a makeshift offense especially that line against a hungry team coming off a tough tough loss fighting for their playoff lives. And BTW speaking of The Eagles makeshift O-Line CINCY leads the ENTIRE NFL in SACKS with 42, 3 more then second place Denver. And they are all spread out across the team, it's not just 1 or 2 guys that you can try and concentrate on. This new horrible Philly O-Line has had basically no time to prepare against a defense that comes from all angles. This is one of those games where because of the complete opposite playoff positons these 2 teams are in if Cincy jumps on The Birds considering the weather and the lame duck coach and rookie QB I could see them just quote "laying down and quitting" not that I think players actually lay down and quit but you all know what I mean. Anyway these are just a few things that caught my eye, nothing that the system takes into account. 
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#2
Posted: 12/13/2012 11:18:11 AM
Good luck, R_F! 

Which two teams you like to reach to the Super Bowl if regular season ends today, and who will win it? Thx.  
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#3
Posted: 12/13/2012 11:32:24 AM
I like Denver or New England (whichever has home field in that game assuming they meet in the playoffs) and I really like the Giants in the NFC. I think either Denver or NE beat NYG 
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#4
Posted: 12/13/2012 11:38:16 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Raging_Fetus:

I like Denver or New England (whichever has home field in that game assuming they meet in the playoffs) and I really like the Giants in the NFC. I think either Denver or NE beat NYG 

Denver looks promising to me as well, i think they face New England in AFC Final at Foxboro which should be a very good game.

i like Niners in the NFC side, Packers could be a wild card. Both team could meet in the NFC Championship, that's how i expect it.   
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#5
Posted: 12/13/2012 11:41:38 AM
Good luck Fetus!
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#6
Posted: 12/13/2012 12:42:31 PM

Excellent write up, not too many understand football on this site.  You obviously do.  darn the angle bullshit.  Talent first then angles.  But I will say your name has me a little worried.

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#7
Posted: 12/13/2012 12:43:12 PM
solid writeup 
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#8
Posted: 12/13/2012 1:21:44 PM
 Bro, I'm with ya on this one
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#9
Posted: 12/13/2012 1:40:13 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mrquija27:

Excellent write up, not too many understand football on this site.  You obviously do.  darn the angle bullshit.  Talent first then angles.  But I will say your name has me a little worried.


Stop being a smart behind. If you think this board is that bad then just go away.
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#10
Posted: 12/13/2012 1:55:28 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by football_007:


Stop being a smart behind. If you think this board is that bad then just go away.

Oh u dont worry about me, I do as I please.  Dont be jealous cause you dont know football.

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#11
Posted: 12/13/2012 1:55:47 PM
Great insight! Same side. GL
Posted using a mobile device.
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#12
Posted: 12/13/2012 2:11:50 PM
nice write
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#13
Posted: 12/13/2012 2:19:28 PM
         
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#14
Posted: 12/13/2012 4:57:03 PM
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#15
Posted: 12/13/2012 7:34:22 PM
Good Luck
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#16
Posted: 12/13/2012 7:35:40 PM
Save the writeup, u lost
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#17
Posted: 12/13/2012 7:41:07 PM
best of luck but Marvin Lewis and his 9 straight prime time losses are tough to back tonight
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#18
Posted: 12/13/2012 7:47:19 PM
cincy win.....philly cover....or cincy loses outright!....it's all about the money!...too much on cincy!
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#19
Posted: 12/13/2012 8:16:11 PM
Very thoughtful write up.  Thanks for your time to put it together.
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#20
Posted: 12/13/2012 8:18:15 PM

  

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#21
Posted: 12/13/2012 8:48:15 PM
So far been right on. The extra help in the front 7 allowed for the fumble. As soon as Reid got behind, he abandoned run very next drive. Led to a quick 3 and out with bad decisions by his rookie QB which led to a group of special teamers who look like they have no desire to be out there in that cold as they allow the punter to literally shove the ball up the behind of his own guy. GL CINCY
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#22
Posted: 12/13/2012 9:21:06 PM
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#23
Posted: 12/14/2012 12:42:14 AM
CONGRATS TO ALL
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#24
Posted: 12/14/2012 1:55:34 AM
Congrats Fetus!

Nice call and write up brother. 

What are your leans this weekend? Would love to hear your insight. 
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#25
Posted: 12/14/2012 2:02:47 AM
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