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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: NFL Week 15
andarmac99 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 12/12/2012 2:17:42 PM
YTD: 44-28


Unusual week for me in that I will most likely be rooting for more favs than dogs. The theme this week is keep it simple.


Pittsburgh pk

Posted this in last week's thread. Keeping up with this week's theme the simple way of looking at this game from the Pittsburgh perspective is they will more than likely play very well this week. It should be a bounceback effort after a complete debacle against the Chargers. Many veterans have said they simply didn't have anything left in the tank and weren't ready to play after such an emotional win in Baltimore the week before. I love betting veteran teams who garbage the bed the week before as they usually know how to get focused and atone for bad performances. This team has a good track record under Tomlin after a bad loss as they are 11-5 ATS after losing by more than 3 points and perhaps more significant for this game because of the price is the fact they are 14-2 SU in those games with one loss coming in OT.

The Dallas Cowboys are about as Jekyll and Hyde as they come. They are woefully inconsistent and tend to follow up good games with duds. Just when you think they are playing up to their potential they make mental error after mental error and leave you shaking your head. This team is 2-11 ATS the past two seasons after a SU win including 0-6 ATS after winning and also covering. Let's also look at the fact that Dallas really isn't that good. They have a slew of injuries on defense and their offensive line is offensive. I think most that watched the game last week would tell you Cincy lost it with a pleothra of drops on both sides of the ball more than Dallas won it. The energy situation is something to watch as well after the very emotional win last week it will be tough not to avoid a small hangover even when facing the Steelers.

I'll keep it simple and take the team that is coming to play against the most inconsistent team in the league who are going to have to dig deep to be as emotionally charged as they will need to be to beat a pissed off Steelers team.


Arizona +......???

Week in and week out there are 1 or 2 games where most people only focus on one team because they are either the greatest thing since sliced bread or the worst abomination to ever walk the planet. But those people often fail to look at the other team in that matchup. This is one of those games.

I really don't care what happened to the Cards last week. They were on the road in a very tough place to play with no offense. They turned the ball over time and time again and they probably did quit. They were on an 8 game losing streak and had no chance once they got down 14. Who wouldn't quit in that situation? The thing is that everybody now knows they quit and they embarrassed themselves. Nobody likes embarrassing themselves. I believe Arizona is going to be motivated and will show up strong for this game. As bad as the offense is Arizona still has a strong defense (when they haven't gotten fed up with the offense). The Cards haven't given up more than 24 offensive points at home in a year (14 of the 31 to STL came via two pick 6's). I also believe just based on line value this is a good bet as we are probably getting close to a full FG based on last week's 58-0 final score.

Now we get to the other team. I feel fairly confident the Cardinals are going to play hard and with pride on Sunday. I also feel fairly confident the Lions are going to lay down like dogs. There is not a single shrivel of evidence that suggests Detroit cares about this game. They have absolutely NOTHING to play for. Playoffs? Nope. Winning record? Nope. Division rivalry? Nope? Playing spoiler against a playoff team? Certainly not. Last week the Lions said they were jacked to play their rivals in the snow on national TV. They actually played pretty well but still managed to play a textbook Lions game and ended up blowing it and losing. Detroit is exactly the type of horribly-coached team stuffed with malcontents that goes on the road with nothing to play for and lays down.

Keep it simple: Arizona is a home dog with a strong defense that will be highly motivated. Detroit is a horrible team (8 ATS wins in their last 25 games) with nothing to play for that will probably mail this one in. Even if they get a lead they will probably find a way to blow it because that's what they do. I'll hold out for a 6 but I will be on the Cards regardless of the line.


Cleveland +/-....

I'll be on the Browns where it's Griffin or Cousins in this one.

Good spot to fade Washington off some really big wins (Cowboys, Giants, huge comeback to beat the Ravens in OT). It is really tough to string together games week in and week out where your energy level is sky high and here against a 5-8 OOC team I see a flatspot. Let's not pretend the Skins are some juggernaut either. Their defense is still terrible and at this price range against a team that has a really good defense I think they are in tough. From the QB point of view even if Griffin plays I can't see how he isn't greatly effected from the injury. He couldn't even walk at the end of the game last week. I loved Cousins at Michigan State but I don't love him being asked to win a road game in the NFL in his first career start.

The Browns may be playing as well as the Skins. This team is gradually improving and they have played hard all season. They've only lost 4 games ATS but have stayed under the radar and I believe they still hold value. The defense is tough and with Phil Taylor and Joe Haden back they are really tough. Taylor is a monster who is like Vince Wilfork where he ties up two blockers every play. The Browns have 14 sacks in 4 games since he's returned to the starting lineup. They clearly have the better defense and although the offense is not great they are starting to build some chemistry. Realistically Cleveland is only two plays away from being 7-6.

Not a good spot here for Washington against a good up and coming team. I like Cleveland to close out their home schedule (where they've only lost twice by more than 1 point) with a win.



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Posted: 12/12/2012 2:18:02 PM
Teaser: Houston pk/Chicago +13/New England +4.5

Houston: Going to keep it simple and take a good team off a blowout loss. This is a spot where good teams show up and respond. Simple as that really. If the Texans don't show up here then we can write them off. Good matchup against Indy too as it's a division game with the Colts suddenly in Houston's rearview mirror. On the field the Texans should have plenty of success on the ground which will set up their pass game. The Colts love to air the ball out. One of the reasons Luck has a lot of INT's and a low completion % is because they don't dink and dunk, they stretch the field often. That's a problem here because they need time to do that and a motivated Houston defensive front at home is probably not going to give them time.

Chicago: Biggest game of the season for the Bears. These teams know each other well and it shouldn't be more than a TD game either way. +13 is a juicy number for two teams that have played a lot of low scoring games between each other the last few years.

Green Bay has the brand names on offense but they have been nowhere near as good as years past. Their offensive line is just horrible. They can't run block and they are worse even than the Bears at pass blocking. If Rodgers wasn't so mobile he would be dead by now. I've watched Green Bay a ton recently and most of the plays Rodgers makes are on the run when he's scrambling out of the pocket. The downfield stuff isn't there because everyone is getting pressure with just 4 linemen and playing deep with two high safeties. That's one of the reasons McCarthy continues to run the ball, he's trying to get another man down in the box to open the pass game. The Bears front should get pressure and prevent the big plays. Green Bay has only scored 30 points three times this season and have won by more than 13 just two times. I also think the Bears play well on offense. Even if Rodgers makes some crazy plays to win another game the +13 should be more than enough.

New England: The Patriots have become quite predictable in recent seasons in that they play really well in big games and sort of mail in the less important ones. This may be a bigger game for New England than the Houston one.  They thrive on these types of games. There is still a lingering perception out there that the Pats are a soft team and don't have what it takes to play physical like the Niners. While they ma have been weak in the secondary New England is actually a very physical team this year. They have horses in the run game and the front 7 is big and the linebackers are big time hitters. I usually listen to Tom Brady's weekly radio spot when I have time and I found it interesting that this week when the announcers were talking about the Texans, Brady umprompted, said that this week's game is the biggest of the year and San Francisco has perhaps the best defense he's ever seen. He also said he had already seen all of the film on the Niners and this was 8 hours after the Texans game ended.

I can't say anything much bad about the Niners. I still have some concerns about Kaepernick though as this is his first real spotlight game. I may be the only person left who feels Alex Smith should be the guy but there is just no substitute for experience in big time games whether it be the regular season or the postseason. I think he's in for some mistakes.

Keeping it simple for this game: New England's 3 losses this season have been by a combined 4 points. The Patriots are 22-1 SU (the one loss by 2 points in a meaningless game where Matt Cassel took most of the snaps) at home in December the last 10 seasons. New England is also 31-10-3 ATS with just 8 SU losses in 44 games with Tom Brady at the helm at home in the regular season and the spread -7 or less. Brady has also not lost at home by more than 4 points in over 6 years.


Looking at one more. GL gents.
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Posted: 12/12/2012 2:23:21 PM

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#4
Posted: 12/12/2012 2:39:42 PM
we agree about alex smith 
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Posted: 12/12/2012 3:22:10 PM
And just like that the Cards and Browns fall into the range I am willing to fire on:


Arizona +6


Cleveland +2.5

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Posted: 12/12/2012 3:35:49 PM
good luck pal!
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#7
Posted: 12/12/2012 4:03:42 PM
Solid.

BOL
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Posted: 12/12/2012 6:53:12 PM
  thats a teaser for the ages    disagree though that the Cowboys are not very good..they beat a tough team last week on the road and the running game and witten should be just enough  here
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#9
Posted: 12/12/2012 8:56:46 PM
On Cleveland and Chicago
Posted using a mobile device.
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Posted: 12/12/2012 9:12:20 PM
I think the Cardinals are finished they have the worse QB play I have ever seen I can see them checking out over the Lions checking out.  Lions still have a couple personal stat achievements that can be reached so I think they will still play hard, but the Cards I don't see it
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#11
Posted: 12/12/2012 9:14:56 PM
GL andarmac

Like that Cleveland Play vely intelesting (mispelled intentionally)
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#12
Posted: 12/13/2012 1:02:33 AM

strong lean towards the Cards as well- Detroit's deflated, weird feeling about the Brownies though

great write-ups and will probably chime in here later in the week when I get some traction on my leans to see what you think

I'm gonna be in Beantown for the weekend gonna watch the early slate and then head to Foxboro to root on my Niners vs the Pats can't wait

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Posted: 12/13/2012 1:13:22 AM
Good luck Andy...thinking alike this week...very strong lean to Cards ATS...and like the Browns also. Great card this week overall to cap. 

locked in a teaser with Pit +7.5/Bal+10.5 also...like both of them to win SU also and will likely be them ATS. 

Any thoughts on Balty? Thought you would be on that one, although I can understand not wanting to fade that train right now, just think they are ripe for the picking here. 

Like the Bears but only ATS as there is (small) chance of blowout potential there if GB wins. Just think that there's a few better options than them in a tease this week...not sure if you've locked that tease in already but Hou is -8 at a few books so you could grab them in a 2 team/7pt instead. Pats at +4.5 should be good although I do lean against my boys this week...hit em hard over Houston but weird feeling SF squeaks out a win here or keeps it super close. Hope I'm wrong but that line is inflated. 

Also wouldn't mind hearing your thoughts on Nyg/Atl if you have time...lean Atl because of the situation here however they are a huge fraud and the Gmen are a team I usually don't get right.

Good luck this week buds

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Posted: 12/13/2012 1:34:08 AM
I like all the straight plays and the Texans and Bears in the tease, but I think I'd rather get the 9ers +15 than go the other way. BOL this week
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Posted: 12/13/2012 3:13:30 AM
Excellent write up. Thanks for taking the time to share.! All look like winners. What's your thought on TNF? 

Looks like Foles is a bit hyped playing last week against worse pass defense of Tampa Bay. With Cinci #1 sack team in the league, I don't think Foles will have the time to look for his receivers. Philly has nothing to play for while this is a must win for Cinci. 

And has anything changed to Philly offensive line? Last week Foles got sacked six times! TB is ranked 27th in sack. What do you think Cinci Defensive line will do?

I know you've written quite a bit... but what can I tell ya - write more cause you know your sh*t! And who should I start this week on my Fantasy: Maclin or Garcon? Thanks man!
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#16
Posted: 12/13/2012 10:27:37 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by andarmac99:

YTD: 44-28


Pittsburgh pk


Arizona +......???


Cleveland +/-....




I like all 3. 
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Posted: 12/14/2012 1:31:03 AM
GL
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Posted: 12/14/2012 11:13:53 AM
Once again, great job. Always make a point to read your picks.

With regards to Pitts bet. Does it bother you at all that Dallas opened up as the favorite (-1)and is know a dog. +1.5 at home.
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Posted: 12/14/2012 2:01:59 PM
Like your straight bets but don't like that teaser..SF can win that game.
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Posted: 12/14/2012 3:00:29 PM
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Posted: 12/14/2012 6:07:07 PM
tothemoney - I disagree. The Lions are one of the worst teams in the league. They rarely care anyway and with absolutely nothing to play for I think they garbage the bed against a team that just lost 58-0. Throw Peterson on Calvin (to at least contain him) and the Lions receiver woes get exposed. Type of situation where the Cards don't need a great offense because I can see turnovers in this one.

mtbaker - Damn buddy wish I was at that one. Have a good time bro. Supposed to be some nasty weather with snow turning to rain. Should be the game of the week.

nepatriots_12 - Should be on Balty but I am going to lay off. Not strong enough of a lean. I really like this Denver team. Those two future plays I made are looking good and a win here would make them look much better so I'm kind of on Denver in a way. Same thing with STL and TB. I've got both teams OVER 6 wins and would obviously love both to win this week. Should mention I have DAL OVER 8.5 but wrote that one off weeks ago so I don't feel too bad hitting Pittsburgh this week.

Like the Falcons a lot. Locked in Atlanta -1 yesterday but haven't had time for a writeup yet. May do one soon. GL this week buddy. You must be having a pretty good year, you've had some great plays that I remember.
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Posted: 12/14/2012 6:08:44 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by andarmac99:

tothemoney - I disagree. The Lions are one of the worst teams in the league. They rarely care anyway and with absolutely nothing to play for I think they garbage the bed against a team that just lost 58-0. Throw Peterson on Calvin (to at least contain him) and the Lions receiver woes get exposed. Type of situation where the Cards don't need a great offense because I can see turnovers in this one.


mtbaker - Damn buddy wish I was at that one. Have a good time bro. Supposed to be some nasty weather with snow turning to rain. Should be the game of the week.


nepatriots_12 - Should be on Balty but I am going to lay off. Not strong enough of a lean. I really like this Denver team. Those two future plays I made are looking good and a win here would make them look much better so I'm kind of on Denver in a way. Same thing with STL and TB. I've got both teams OVER 6 wins and would obviously love both to win this week. Should mention I have DAL OVER 8.5 but wrote that one off weeks ago so I don't feel too bad hitting Pittsburgh this week.

Like the Falcons a lot. Locked in Atlanta -1 yesterday but haven't had time for a writeup yet. May do one soon. GL this week buddy. You must be having a pretty good year, you've had some great plays that I remember.


Easier to read when bolded and better spacing is used.
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Posted: 12/14/2012 6:26:00 PM
P4P - NE and SF both probably hit in the teaser. I do like the Pats here though. I tend to not overreact and buying on an inflated spread is usually always a bad idea (even though it's a teaser) but I'm not sure even with the adjustment that books are accounting for the Pats new defense. They are playing Talib man to man and that is something that can drastically change their defense because it frees up another man. I listened to Greg Cosell this week and he says Talib has allowed them to play all sorts of new looks with blitzing from all over because they have some security on the back end. If this team finds a secondary (and they just might be and it's something I'm coming around to buying into) then it's curtains for the rest of the league.

I follow this team closely and this is a game they get up for. They have no step up game again until probably the middle of January in the playoffs. I also believe they want to prove they are much more physical than they are given credit for. Brady saying he's seen all of the SF film likely before even the Houston game was interesting. I'm not saying SF doesn't want to prove themselves against the high powered Pats because I'm sure they do. But in the back of their minds they have another road trip to Seattle next week on SNF again in a much, much bigger game. If they lose here it will mean nothing as long as they beat Seattle.

Another reason I hope NE wins (and big) is it sets up two nice plays next week. The Pats won't give two shits against Jacksonville off these huge games and will be laying 2 TD's or more on the road. And SF will be out for blood against a very young flavor of the month Seattle group that will suddenly find themselves favored at home on SNF. That is a situation I'd much rather have SF in than this week. Not directed at you bro just rambling here.


xanthax - No not at all. I know a lot of guys put weight into where lines open, where they move, who the books want, what side Vegas is on, consensus numbers, traps, unicorns, dragons, and all that other nonsense. There are maybe one or two situations where I look at the lines and actually put a small bit of weight into where the books (and by book I mean Pinnacle) has the number and this is not one of them. GL.
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#24
Posted: 12/14/2012 7:06:48 PM
Same card except I'm not playing the Ariz game and will likely be on SF.  GL to us!
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#25
Posted: 12/14/2012 8:08:36 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by andarmac99:

P4P - NE and SF both probably hit in the teaser. I do like the Pats here though. I tend to not overreact and buying on an inflated spread is usually always a bad idea (even though it's a teaser) but I'm not sure even with the adjustment that books are accounting for the Pats new defense. They are playing Talib man to man and that is something that can drastically change their defense because it frees up another man. I listened to Greg Cosell this week and he says Talib has allowed them to play all sorts of new looks with blitzing from all over because they have some security on the back end. If this team finds a secondary (and they just might be and it's something I'm coming around to buying into) then it's curtains for the rest of the league.

I follow this team closely and this is a game they get up for. They have no step up game again until probably the middle of January in the playoffs. I also believe they want to prove they are much more physical than they are given credit for. Brady saying he's seen all of the SF film likely before even the Houston game was interesting. I'm not saying SF doesn't want to prove themselves against the high powered Pats because I'm sure they do. But in the back of their minds they have another road trip to Seattle next week on SNF again in a much, much bigger game. If they lose here it will mean nothing as long as they beat Seattle.

Another reason I hope NE wins (and big) is it sets up two nice plays next week. The Pats won't give two shits against Jacksonville off these huge games and will be laying 2 TD's or more on the road. And SF will be out for blood against a very young flavor of the month Seattle group that will suddenly find themselves favored at home on SNF. That is a situation I'd much rather have SF in than this week. Not directed at you bro just rambling here.



Beautiful
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