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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: *** NFL Sunday Ticket *** Best Play of the Month
LeagueCapper send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 12/6/2012 4:59:34 PM
New Orleans Saints @ New York Giants

If you told me at the beginning of the year Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, or Drew Brees would have the worst game of their career and throw 5 picks in a divisional loss, then proceed to tell me they are getting 5 points the following week, I would take them blindly every single time.

Drew Brees is too good to not have a bounce back game here. Giants secondary is nowhere up to par to be able to keep up with this Saints offense. Brees is 4-0 in his career against the Giants averaging over 43 points per game.

This is basically a must win for the Giants, where they had breathing room last week in the division has now turned into pressure as a favorite to win at home. Giants usually play well in big games but play exceptionally better as underdogs or on the road.

Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts

Terrible spot for the Colts here. A huge come from behind win against the Lions last week on the road, now having to travel home to face a bottom-feeder team with the division leader Texans on deck. Colts already beat the Titans earlier in the year on the road, as this is still a young team, I can see them taking this one lightly.

-Divisional favorites who are divisional dogs next week are 13-39 ATS (25%) past 5 years.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Bucs are a little overrated in the public's eye at this moment. Yes they had a good 4 game win streak but the last 3 games they needed a huge comeback to beat the Panthers and lost to the Falcons and Broncos.

Nick Foles is noone to fear but he has a favorable matchup here. The Bucs are dead last in pass defense so where some might think Nick Foles will struggle, I think the exact opposite. Everyone is down on the Eagles setting up a great spot to play them getting a TD+ against the worst pass defense in the league.

Buccaneers also in a look ahead spot with the Saints on deck so even if they do win, don't expect them to be giving it there all and turning into a blowout.

- Andy Reid is 10-3 ATS as an underdog of 6.5 or more past 12 years.

Miami Dolphins @ San Francisco 49ers

Tough spot here for the 49ers. Overtime loss to the Rams, Cap's first loss as a starter (doubts?) and two huge games against the Patriots and Seahawks on deck. Dolphins play their best ball on the road and as underdogs. Should be a fairly close game here.

- Dolphins are 15-3 ATS (83.3%) as underdogs on the road vs. teams with a winning record past 5 years.

----------------------------------------------------

Saints +5             10 units
Eagles +7.5          5 units
Dolphins +10       4 units
Titans +5              4 units
Titans +3? (1h)    2 units
Lions +7 (-125)    2 units


October: +54.9 units
November: +2.35 units

December: -8.4 units

Totals: 2-0
Best Plays of the Month: 3-1
Best Play of the Season: 1-0

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#2
Posted: 12/6/2012 5:04:30 PM
Any thoughts on the NBA tonight?
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#3
Posted: 12/6/2012 5:10:18 PM
Drew Brees bounces back this week .. like the pick  BOL  
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#4
Posted: 12/6/2012 5:11:30 PM
Awesome! Your top 3 plays are also my 3 favorite plays on the board this week!



Love it, GL
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the1andonly12
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#5
Posted: 12/6/2012 5:13:17 PM
GL
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#6
Posted: 12/6/2012 5:15:03 PM
LC, who you like tonight?
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#7
Posted: 12/6/2012 5:17:20 PM
I can't see Miami's miserable offense scoring. I think Niners are going to be pissed off after a loss & win 24-10. Love the under.
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#8
Posted: 12/6/2012 5:19:37 PM
ddhuynh_82 - Just posted

LGFTW88 - Almost made a play on the Raiders but backed off. In my opinion it's too many points to lay on the Broncos on a short week and on the road in a divisional game. Despite that, i'm not playing the Raiders. I can't get away from the fact that oddsmakers opened this line at +10.5
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#9
Posted: 12/6/2012 5:24:36 PM
miami
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#10
Posted: 12/6/2012 5:30:21 PM
Saints titans and eagles. 3 great plays
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#11
Posted: 12/6/2012 5:31:11 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:




Drew Brees is too good to not have a bounce back game here. Giants secondary is nowhere up to par to be able to keep up with this Saints offense. Brees is 4-0 in his career against the Giants averaging over 43 points per game.


No dissing - good write-ups but wasn't all this said last week against ATL?? ... "Brees getting 3 points, NO/Brees steller vs them, Atl pass D weak and injured... bounce back game after bad INTs..." 

what has he thrown, 8+/- INTs in L 2 games?

Gl but i wouldn't bet on NO with PTBs monopoly money
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#12
Posted: 12/6/2012 5:33:23 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bpickin:

Saints titans and eagles. 3 great plays

betting ON 3 bad teams are great plays? 

these teams are bad for a reason... might as well toss SD into the mix and parlay all 4 MLs... then add Car...they always find a way to not sh!t the bed...oh wait, they are bad for a reason too...

Bol agian...BOL LC 
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#13
Posted: 12/6/2012 5:41:29 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nuggins:


No dissing - good write-ups but wasn't all this said last week against ATL?? ... "Brees getting 3 points, NO/Brees steller vs them, Atl pass D weak and injured... bounce back game after bad INTs..." 

what has he thrown, 8+/- INTs in L 2 games?

Gl but i wouldn't bet on NO with PTBs monopoly money


Much different. Last week was a division rival who knows them better than any team in the league. Those games will happen in-division.
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#14
Posted: 12/6/2012 5:41:36 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CurtisBlow304:

I can't see Miami's miserable offense scoring. I think Niners are going to be pissed off after a loss & win 24-10. Love the under.
I strongly disagree although I realize this will just come across as a homer view. These are the type of games that Mia thrives in, roughneck football between two teams that play a more conservative (protect the ball) style on offense and solid defense. As LC mentioned in his writeup, Mia always plays well on the road in these spots as underdogs and they've got a stout run D that will keep SF's run game pretty much in check and force Kaep to have to go downfield a little which I believe he's still not totally comfortable doing. Mia doesn't have the most prolific offense but I definitely wouldn't call it "miserable".

Another thing that's been pretty much overlooked in the past week is that Mia could have beaten N.E. last week (which LC would probably disagree with being that he's a Patriot fan) if not for a couple poor mistakes made in that game like the fumbled punt snap on the opening drive which set the Patriots up with first and goal on their first possession leading to a quick 7, or the pick 6 that Reshad Jones took to the house but was brought back on a questionable low block call by the zebras.

Bottom line is that this Mia team has got a lot of heart and people continue to overlook them and undervalue them while they quietly keep putting forth great efforts week after week which doesn't go unnoticed to the people that are actually paying attention.

It wouldn't surprise me at all if Mia came away with a W on Sunday...
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#15
Posted: 12/6/2012 5:53:25 PM
[Quote: Originally Posted by LeagueCapper]
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts

Terrible spot for the Colts here. A huge come from behind win against the Lions last week on the road, now having to travel home to face a bottom-feeder team with the division leader Texans on deck. Colts already beat the Titans earlier in the year on the road, as this is still a young team, I can see them taking this one lightly.

-Divisional favorites who are divisional dogs next week are 13-39 ATS (25%) past 5 years.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Bucs are a little overrated in the public's eye at this moment. Yes they had a good 4 game win streak but the last 3 games they needed a huge comeback to beat the Panthers and lost to the Falcons and Broncos.

Nick Foles is noone to fear but he has a favorable matchup here. The Bucs are dead last in pass defense so where some might think Nick Foles will struggle, I think the exact opposite. Everyone is down on the Eagles setting up a great spot to play them getting a TD+ against the worst pass defense in the league.

Buccaneers also in a look ahead spot with the Saints on deck so even if they do win, don't expect them to be giving it there all and turning into a blowout.

- Andy Reid is 10-3 ATS as an underdog of 6.5 or more past 12 years.

Very confuseThe Colts are playing with the Titans, the worst team in the division , knowing they have 2 games ahead with the Texans, that a BAD SPOT, why? is not better take the SURE game with the Titans because is very possible they will Lose the 2 games with the Texans?So they will DROP the game with the LOWLY Titans to get focus with the texans in Houston? Don't Get it.
GUS
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alecboyh
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#16
Posted: 12/6/2012 6:11:36 PM
NO PLAY ON TONIGHTS GAME???
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#17
Posted: 12/6/2012 6:14:32 PM
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#18
Posted: 12/6/2012 6:19:30 PM
BOL LeagueCapper
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#19
Posted: 12/6/2012 6:20:55 PM
Saint's aren't going to stop the Giants either. Absolutely awful secondary and rush D. A play on the over might be better than the side here. If the Saints can keep up then the game has a great shot of going over the total.
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#20
Posted: 12/6/2012 6:22:35 PM
LC what is saints line good down to? +4?
Posted using a mobile device.
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#21
Posted: 12/6/2012 6:56:31 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Gusfgz:


Very confuseThe Colts are playing with the Titans, the worst team in the division , knowing they have 2 games ahead with the Texans, that a BAD SPOT, why? is not better take the SURE game with the Titans because is very possible they will Lose the 2 games with the Texans?So they will DROP the game with the LOWLY Titans to get focus with the texans in Houston? Don't Get it.
GUS


Your looking at it the entirely wrong way. If your an 8-4 team and have the division leader 11-1 Texans next week, your not looking at that game like it's a possible loss so you should try harder this weekend. You want to prove everyone your a contender and that you can beat them. Colts are looking forward to playing the Texans, not the Titans who they've already beat and are 4-8
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#22
Posted: 12/6/2012 6:56:56 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by alecboyh:

NO PLAY ON TONIGHTS GAME???


No play, thoughts on post #8
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#23
Posted: 12/6/2012 6:57:52 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mikesomoney:

LC what is saints line good down to? +4?


Don't think it will go below +4.5, if it reaches 4 i'd assume they'd get a lot of buy back on the superbowl champs at only -4.
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StoneColdNinja
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#24
Posted: 12/6/2012 7:10:11 PM
bol on all your plays lc 

what are your thoughts on the no/nyg total?

leaning over, i think both offenses will come out firing after a poor offensive showing last week.
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#25
Posted: 12/6/2012 7:17:23 PM
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