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*** New England Patriots to Win the AFC ***

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Posted: #1
Does anyone really think anyone in the AFC has a chance to beat the Patriots this year?

Ravens - Worst defense they've had in the past decade.

Texans - Kubiak over Belichick in the playoffs? Please. Texans struggle against pass happy teams.

Broncos - We all saw what the Patriots did to them earlier this year. 28 straight points without a single punt. Had a 31-7 lead before giving up 2 late TD's. Peyton will continue to mask his defensive flaws in the regular season because of how good he is but will struggle mightily in the playoffs with no run game against good coaches and gameplans.

Steelers - A healthy steelers team can beat anyone, anywhere, anytime. In fact, they are the only team that matches up well with the Patriots this year. I will hedge my bet by placing a half unit on the Steelers at +1700.

Patriots have as strong of a pass offense as ever before and have one of the top rushing attacks in the league for the first time in forever. Aqib Talib was a huge addition to this team as he can cover one half of the secondary pretty well leaving Belichick to add help in pass protection on the other side.

New England Patriots to Win the AFC +235     7 units
Pittsburgh Steelers to Win the AFC +1700        0.5 units
 
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Posted: #2
you are a very good capper, and i make a point of reading your threads, but there needs to be an "*" on this post - you are a HUGE patriots fan and homer! not "hating", but this fact does need to be stated
 
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Posted: #3
...that being said, i am tailing you and throwing a few dollars on the pats... i agree, they got a good shot, but the "value" might not be there if they have to play 2 road games after the opening round
 
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Posted: #4
Quote Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:

 
Pittsburgh Steelers to Win the AFC +1700        0.5 units


Put this on either TEX or DEN  ...

 Steelers won't even make the playoffs 

Ben will not be coming back this year imo...
 
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by bob696969:

you are a very good capper, and i make a point of reading your threads, but there needs to be an "*" on this post - you are a HUGE patriots fan and homer! not "hating", but this fact does need to be stated


True but I would never make a bet on them just cuz I like them or for being a homer, i've faded them a few times this year. I actually hope they lose another game or two in the regular season just so they don't have a first round bye. First round byes = RUST. First round bye or no first round bye though, I think the Pats get it done.
 
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Posted: #6
Here is an example of what i mean by poor value.. if the playoffs started today (and all the favorites win in every round):

Round 1: pats -200 at home vs steelers
ROund 2: pats +120 on road at ravens (ravens would be a slight favorite)
Round 3: pats +160 at texans

A parlay of -200/+120/+160 gives a payout of +750 ish...

Betting the pats right now at +235 assumes you think they will move up in the 1 or 2 seed. remember, they lose the tiebreaker to baltimore, and they still play houston, but houston has a 2 game lead....
 
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Posted: #7
Although I agree, you gotta take into consideration the fact that N.E. is known for having a "dud" game every now and then. But when they play their "A" game, I don't think there's anyone that can beat them in a postseason atmosphere at home...


I hope they have a dud this weekend
 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:

Does anyone really think anyone in the AFC has a chance to beat the Patriots this year?

Ravens - Worst defense they've had in the past decade...Agreed..But they've gotten better since Suggs returned,the loss of Webb is huge...But Ellerbe for Lewis has been a big improvement....

Texans - Kubiak over Belichick in the playoffs? Please. Texans struggle against pass happy teams.
At home they are scary good,except for 1 game...

Broncos - We all saw what the Patriots did to them earlier this year. 28 straight points without a single punt. Had a 31-7 lead before giving up 2 late TD's. Peyton will continue to mask his defensive flaws in the regular season because of how good he is but will struggle mightily in the playoffs with no run game against good coaches and gameplans.
Much better since early in the year...Peyton looks like Peyton again..
Steelers - A healthy steelers team can beat anyone, anywhere, anytime. In fact, they are the only team that matches up well with the Patriots this year. I will hedge my bet by placing a half unit on the Steelers at +1700.
Ravens hope to put a fork in them on Sunday..I'll B there can't wait...


Patriots have as strong of a pass offense as ever before and have one of the top rushing attacks in the league for the first time in forever. Aqib Talib was a huge addition to this team as he can cover one half of the secondary pretty well leaving Belichick to add help in pass protection on the other side.

New England Patriots to Win the AFC +235     7 units
Pittsburgh Steelers to Win the AFC +1700        0.5 units
 
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Posted: #9
Looking at remaining schedule of the Pats, Broncos, and Ravens, Denver has the easiest schedule of the three (Bucs, Raiders, Ravens, Browns, Chiefs = 4-1), Pats (Miami, Texans, 49ers, Jags, Miami= 3-2), Ravens (Steelers, Redskins, Broncos, GMen, Bengals= 2-3 or 3-2) AFC goes to either Ravens or Broncos
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by bob696969:

Here is an example of what i mean by poor value.. if the playoffs started today (and all the favorites win in every round):

Round 1: pats -200 at home vs steelers
ROund 2: pats +120 on road at ravens (ravens would be a slight favorite)
Round 3: pats +160 at texans

A parlay of -200/+120/+160 gives a payout of +750 ish...

Betting the pats right now at +235 assumes you think they will move up in the 1 or 2 seed. remember, they lose the tiebreaker to baltimore, and they still play houston, but houston has a 2 game lead....


Think your heavily wrong here.
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by CanadaCup:

Looking at remaining schedule of the Pats, Broncos, and Ravens, Denver has the easiest schedule of the three (Bucs, Raiders, Ravens, Browns, Chiefs = 4-1), Pats (Miami, Texans, 49ers, Jags, Miami= 3-2), Ravens (Steelers, Redskins, Broncos, GMen, Bengals= 2-3 or 3-2) AFC goes to either Ravens or Broncos


Not really worried about who gets the first round bye. Broncos aren't making the superbowl with no run game and a below average defense.
 
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Posted: #12
Leaguecapper, post#10 - ravens were -3 fav in week 3, i estimate the line at ravens -1 if they played again in baltimore.... as for a potential pats- texans matchup in houston, i guess alot woud depend on what happens when they play in a few weeks....
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by bob696969:

Leaguecapper, post#10 - ravens were -3 fav in week 3, i estimate the line at ravens -1 if they played again in baltimore.... as for a potential pats- texans matchup in houston, i guess alot woud depend on what happens when they play in a few weeks....


Could be, either way i'm not arguing with you. I know the disadvantage of placing futures on a team to win a conference or superbowl, they are always less odds. I made a thread proving it last year right before the playoffs too and yes if the Pats don't get the first round bye, I will be losing value here. Regardless, I place tons of bets during the playoffs and will be betting the Pats as well later so this is just on the backburner.
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by bob696969:

Leaguecapper, post#10 - ravens were -3 fav in week 3, i estimate the line at ravens -1 if they played again in baltimore.... as for a potential pats- texans matchup in houston, i guess alot woud depend on what happens when they play in a few weeks....


Also just to elaborate a bit more, Ravens were -3 back then but the Patriots are much better than they were then and the Ravens are much worse. Patriots go into that game in the playoffs as underdogs and every sharp in the world will be on them for heavy money so I doubt linesmakers open the Ravens as favorites there. Same with Texans, no way Pats are underdogs in the playoffs against a team that has 1 playoff game in history. Playoffs are a different animal.
 
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Posted: #15
LC.....Ravens closed at -1.5...won a FG at the gun..I was there...If the Ravens had Webb..I'd tell you you're crazy..but a depleated secondary has made them vulnerable ....15 points a game on D in there last 4 games....Ravens are 34-5  SU at home last 39.....Hope they pay us a visit again...Were still pissed about the debacle in the playoffs....
 
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Posted: #16

nice write up, gonna give that some thought. right now I think nfc with niners +175 is a bit more attractive.  gl 

 
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Posted: #17
Talk about an overreaction to the last 2 weeks.  Holy cow!!!
 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by emcacco:

nice write up, gonna give that some thought. right now I think nfc with niners +175 is a bit more attractive.  gl 



How? The Giants have beaten the 49ers and the Packers by a combined score of 64-13. Lots of good teams with a shot in the NFC, in my opinion very little in the AFC.
 
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Posted: #19
How does Denver have a below average defense?

#2 in rush efficiency, #5 in pass efficiency, #3 in yards per play just 0.1 behind Pittsburgh and San Francisco and #1 in sacks.


 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:



True but I would never make a bet on them just cuz I like them or for being a homer, i've faded them a few times this year. I actually hope they lose another game or two in the regular season just so they don't have a first round bye. First round byes = RUST. First round bye or no first round bye though, I think the Pats get it done.

It's funny how the "Rust' shows the parity in the NFL.  Not too many years ago, teams with the bye were almost assured of making the the super Bowl.  I think Denver has the only shot of taking down the Pats.  Peyton will need to control the clock and their Bronco's dee will have to harass Brady like the Giants did to Rogers.  
 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:

How does Denver have a below average defense?

#2 in rush efficiency, #5 in pass efficiency, #3 in yards per play just 0.1 behind Pittsburgh and San Francisco and #1 in sacks.




Broncos have looked good defensively against sub-par offenses. Take a look at what happened when they faced quality teams.

Texans put up 31 in a win
Falcons put up 27 in a win
Patriots put up 31 in a win with just 2 punts until the 4Q.
 
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by nuggins:



Put this on either TEX or DEN  ...

 Steelers won't even make the playoffs 

Ben will not be coming back this year imo...


Texans have given up 42 points to the Packers, 37 points to the Jaguars, and 31 points to the Lions. Stellar defense huh?
 
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Posted: #23

Ravens always play NE tough. Now in the past it was usually our Defense that gave brady fits. Our D is not what it used to be but they are getting better as some of the younger players have stepped up.

Bottom line there are 4 teams to choose from NE Hou Balt and Denver. If you put them together I still think if the Texans can get there D back together they are the fav. Time will tell.

 
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Posted: #24
League - absolutley agree with you on the texans.. their pass defense is way overrated... i said that the second i saw mark sanchez shred their secondary... i immediately circled the pats-texans game as a possible game of the year... unfortuantely for my betting purposes, the texans secondary has been exposed several times already vs pats and jags
 
 
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Posted: #25
The best CB on the Texans is injured is a major reason that  they are having a hard time stopping the pass...Joesph is as good as they get,just like the Ravens losing Webb was a trainwreck for the Ravens..
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