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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: NFL Week 11
andarmac99 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 11/15/2012 11:18:33 PM
YTD: 30-20 ATS


Kansas City +3.5

Despite covering last week I think we can still buy low on the Chiefs. This line is saying that Pittsburgh would only be -3 over Cincy on a neutral field based on KC's common oppnents the last couple of weeks and I think that is at least a couple points off.

One reason this line is inflated is because of Cincy spanking the Giants from start to finish last week. My problem with that is does that one game erase the fact that the Bengals had lost 4 straight beforehand and had played pretty awful football for the better part of a month? Not to this bettor. The Bengals in my eyes are a bad team and bad teams just aren't good enough to play consistently at a high level from one week to the next. The fact that Cincy beat up a Giants team (that was reeling I might add) in their best game of the season just suggests to me that they won't play up to that level again because bad teams rarely do in these spots. Sure they have Dalton and Green but Cincy doesn't do anything else really well. Their rushing offense is one of the worst in football, their rush D is 23rd in efficiency, and despite a lot
of sacks their passing defense gives up a terrible 67.5% completion percentage (31st in the NFL) and also 7.4 yards per pass which is 20th. This game also sees Marvin
Lewis laying more than a FG on the road. Is this team good enough to be laying road wood to anyone?

The Chiefs are still playing hard. Even though the losses are piling up you can look back at their past games and there really isn't many where you can say they've thrown in the towel and laid down. Their issue has obviously been the turnovers. Last week they finally didn't lose the turnover battle and look what happened they nearly won as DD dogs though Ben did get hurt. There is still talent on this team and I think their defense can have success against a one dimensional Bengals offense. I also think KC can have success in the run game with Charles and Hillis against a weak Bengals front. This is a very winnable game for KC to finally get off the snide and even with a conservative guy like Crennel I wouldn't be surprised to see them empty the bag of tricks to finally give the home fans something to cheer about.


Arizona +10


Continuing the theme of buying low this week I hit the Cards. Long gone is their 4-0 start and now fresh in everyone's mind is the fact this team looks dreaful on offense
and has lost 5 straight games and haven't covered since September. Now they can sneak in fresh and rested off the bye under the radar with that solid defense and perhaps catch the Falcons napping. This is a ton of points to give to a team that still has a very solid defense (though Campbell is iffy) and despite the numbers has an offense that looked to be coming around a bit in their last game before the bye. With Skelton still back there and 2 weeks to get ready they may find a rhythm here.

Atlanta is simply not good enough to lay double digits. Although there are playmakers galore in the pass game the reality is the rest of this team is weak. The run game has disappeared and the defense may be even worse than previous years sitting 30th in yards per rush, 26th in yards per pass to go along with 24th in 3rd down D and 23rd
in redzone D. Arizona has by far the better defense and they are the team catching double digits.

The stats are what they are but perhaps the biggest factor here for the Falcons is emotionally. They are coming off a really tough loss against their biggest rival. Now they play a team that has lost 5 straight while looking terrible. This is a tough game to get up for at this stage of the year. Making matters worse is the Falcons havea reason to look past the Cardinals considering they play big division games @ Tampa and against the Saints in the 11 days following this one. Atlanta doesn't blow teams out consistently either. 5 of their 8 wins have come by 7 points or less and the one really impressive win they have (over Denver) came thanks to three Manning picks and came in a game they would have lost had it gone 5 more minutes. I think this game is a lot closer than most believe.


Pittsburgh +3.5


Big Ben is a heck of a QB but one man does not make the Pittsburgh Steelers. This is one of the best organizations in sports because they've got leadership at every level and always have a backup plan. Ben has missed several games the last few years under Tomlin and the Steelers have always survived. Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS and 4-2 SUsince 2008 without Big Ben with both SU losses coming to the Ravens by 3 points (1 in OT on the road). Leftwich may seem like a bum but IMO he's an ideal backup. He's a veteran player with loads of experience who is not going to be intimidated by the situation that he's walking into. Give him a full week of reps with players he's been around for years and I think he'll do a fine job of managing the game and making plays when needed.

Let's keep in mind that despite beating the Raiders by a million last game the Ravens still have holes. Their run defense has been exposed at times this year and with
the Steelers finding a run game with multiple backs I expect them to pound the rock in this one. The Ravens pass defense has actually been their biggest weakness ranking 19th in yards per pass as they have had trouble covering since Webb went down (starting CB Jimmy Smith also already ruled OUT for this game) and their pass rush has been real bad at getting to opposing QB's ranking 25th in sack percentage.

September 24th, 2000. That was the last time the Steelers were catching more than a FG at home in the regular season when they covered as 7 point pups against TEN. Crazy.
Even I couldn't believe it was that long. Counting that Titans game Pittsburgh is 7-0 ATS as home dogs (the rest all 3 or less) over that same span. Again, Big Ben is a hell of a player and Pittsburgh has no chance to win the Super Bowl without him but Pittsburgh is one team where the starting QB is not worth 7 points because the rest of the entire organization is so solid that they can survive for a period of time. I expect all these guys to play their fools off here at home on national TV against their rivals who swept them last season.

One last thing that should be noted is the Ravens have been very inconsistent on the road and rarely do they win by over a FG on the highway against anybody decent. This year their lone road win by 4 points or more came against a team that currently sports a 2-7 record. Last year their road wins
by 4 or more came against a 2-14 team, a 4-12 team and a Bengals team that beat no one good all year. In 2010 it was wins over a 5-11 team, a 6-10 team, and a 2-14 team.
In 2009 they did have an impressive 5 point road win over a 13-3 Chargers team (in September) but their other wins on the road by 4 or more came over two 5-11 teams.
Pittsburgh even without Big Ben is better than all of those teams and they are better than Baltimore and have a great chance to win SU at a big price.



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Posted: 11/15/2012 11:18:53 PM
Jacksonville +15

Tough to make a strong case for the worse team in the league against arguably the best. This bet is all about the spot for both teams. From the Jags perspective they have had some extra rest to get ready for this one and are off two home blowouts, the last of which coming on national TV so we may finally see them bouncing up a bit from their price hitting rock bottom. Despite their shitty play the Jags are actually 4-0 ATS on the road and covered catching a ton against GB when the Packers failed to take this joke of a team seriously. Houston could fall into the same trap.

There is no question the Texans are faaaaaar more talented and better coached than Jacksonville but I don't know where they find the motivation to kill the poor Jags. They've already beat the crap out of this team in Jacksonville and every player in that locker room thinks they will get the W here if they just show up. Despite being at home this is a bad spot for Houston. They are coming off a real physical statement game against the Bears where they proved they can win and win ugly on the road against a really good team and in bad weather. They also have a short week coming up where they get to play in the spotlight again on national TV on Thanksgiving. If Houston shows up and pounds the Jags or even if they are good enough to win by over 2 TD's without playing their best ball then I will gladly pay the man. I think they sleepwalk the entire game.


Looking at one more but will wait on the injury report. GL gents.
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#3
Posted: 11/15/2012 11:45:58 PM
Andy-  would u still play the Steelers at +2.5 ? I locked that in.. Or is this a FG plus the hook, only way to make a play type game for you.
Would you still make a play if the only line available is 2.5? Thanks man.
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#4
Posted: 11/15/2012 11:52:09 PM
I hear you on the difficulty for the Texans having much motivation to beat up on the jags but check out some of these numbers.

Jacksonville +17 at Houston 
Trends:
Jaguars 6-14 ATS past 20 games vs Texans
Texans 8-2 ATS lifetime at home vs Jaguars
Houston is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
UNDER is 9-2 past 11 Jags games as dog of 8 or more pts
Texans 8-2 ATS past 10 as double-digit chalk
Texans 8-1 ATS past 9 within AFC South
UNDER is 8-1 past 9 Jags games within division

What caught my eye is the 8-2 ATS when laying double digits .. Houston likes to beat up on bad teams.
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Posted: 11/16/2012 12:00:11 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ActionMagnet:

Andy-  would u still play the Steelers at +2.5 ? I locked that in.. Or is this a FG plus the hook, only way to make a play type game for you.
Would you still make a play if the only line available is 2.5? Thanks man.


If the line had never got to 3.5 and 2.5 was the best you would see then I would still play the 2.5 but for less if that makes sense. But if I was forced to get 2.5 when I could have got 3.5 I would play the 2.5 for significantly less than the 3.5. That point really means a lot in what should be a low scoring game like this. I still like PIT to win SU. They are better than Baltimore even without Ben but again that is tough at 2.5.
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Posted: 11/16/2012 12:07:46 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ActionMagnet:



What caught my eye is the 8-2 ATS when laying double digits .. Houston likes to beat up on bad teams.


This is the scariest part for Jags backers. I've already been burned fading Houston as DD chalk this year. Great defenses and teams that rarely turn it over tend to pound weaker teams. There isn't a statistical or trend edge for the Jags, I'm simply betting on them putting forth a decent effort off some extended rest and Houston going through the motions which may be more likely to happen in this spot as opposed to earlier in the year or off a bye.

GL ActionMagnet.
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Posted: 11/16/2012 6:22:27 PM
missed you last week andarmac, glad you are back this week.  love your posts.  bol this week.


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Posted: 11/16/2012 11:28:12 PM
New England -9

I think reality sets in for the Colts this week. They've had a really nice run and are the best story in the league this season and even though both of these teams have the same record the Patriots are significantly better.

The Colts really aren't dominating games from week to week. They have a hell of a young QB who keeps them in it and wins late with the exception of the Jags game. They've had a nice 4 game win streak but let's look at the opponents: Cleveland, Miami, Jacksonville, and Tennessee. Four garbage teams with really bad offenses. The Colts have been able to stay in those games because those other teams struggle to move the ball on their best days against anyone. The reality is the Colts defense is terrible. They are dead last in defensive DVOA and by a significant margin. They cannot stop the run or the pass and they are without both starting CB's this week. Here is the starting secondary that will be facing Tom Brady and the best offense in the league on the road no less: Cassius Vaughn, Antoine Bethea, Tom Zbikowski, and Pats castoff Darius Butler. Good freakin luck boys. New England should be able to get into the mid to high 30's or even 40's.

The Patriots secondary has let them down big time this season but they have a couple things going for them in this one. #1 is Talib makes his debut this week and they may also get Patrick Chung back who has not played in a month. The Pats have a pretty good front 7 and if they can just find a couple guys in the secondary (like Talib and Chung playing consistently) they may actually be able to field a good defense. #2 Is the fact that the Colts have very few real weapons. Reggie Wayne has been a beast but Belichick will throw everyone at him like he always does when one player is the focal point of an offense. Remember when they double and triple teamed Larry Fitzgerald holding him to 1 catch for 4 yards. If TY Hilton and Donnie Avery have success then Belichick will say so be it. The Colts run game is very mediocre and the Pats should be able to contain it especially with the veterans like Wilfork saying how embarrassing their tackling was in the run game last week.

Good situation for the Pats here too who are due for a home blowout especially after a close call with the Bills. They've also got a winning team coming in with the same record as them and are off a sloppy game which means they should be up and focused for this one. Pats should score easily and make Luck one dimensional throwing to his 2nd and 3rd tier guys. A couple stops and this game should be a Pats blowout.


Oakland +4.5

I'm not really buying this Saints surge. Their defense is still horrendous and is still on pace to be the worst in NFL history. The offense has played near flawless in recent weeks and they are still barely winning. They've been out gained in every win. Last week they needed a goal line stand to escape with a win. Against Philly a 99 yard Pick 6 and Philly going 0-5 in the redzone led to a misleading score. Against Tampa the Bucs drove it right down the field but lost when Mike Williams' TD was negated when he stepped out of bounds. Against the Chargers they needed SD to shoot themselves in the foot on the last drive to survive. The point is even in the wins it is a sweat for this team.

Seeing potentially the worst defense in NFL history laying 4.5 on a long road trip is crazy to me. Oakland stinks as well but they have shown they are capable of moving the ball. Oakland has the better D while New Orleans has the better O. Factoring in homefield this line should be a PK IMO.

Looking at the spot it would seem to be a spot to buy the Raiders. They are off a huge blowout loss and before that gave up about 500 yards to Doug Martin in another big loss. I doubt many want to buy this team now and we should see some value in the line. Not loving this spot either for the Saints. They are off a MNF home win followed up by a very emotional game against their rivals just 6 days later. Now they find themselves out on the West Coast against a doormat out of conference team with a huge revenge game at home against SF next week followed by another big game against Atlanta 4 days later. This looks like a classic trap game for the Saints who despite their record and "needing wins" probably won't give the Raiders a max effort game. I don't think NO is good enough to be laying this kind of wood in this spot against anyone.


That is all for this week. Big card. GL gents.
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Posted: 11/16/2012 11:33:25 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by abizzo24:

missed you last week andarmac, glad you are back this week.  love your posts.  bol this week.




Thanks buddy.

Wasn't going to be around much last week so I posted my Week 10 plays in my Week 9 thread at the beginning of the week. Ended up going 2-1 winning with HOU and TEN while losing with JAX.

GL this week.
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Posted: 11/17/2012 3:17:44 AM
I've got teams that were blown out by 28 or more points at an ATS 9-1-1 the next week which would back your RAIDERS play. Difficult to lay points on the road with a defense that is historically bad.
 
This will be the third time the Raiders are following up on a 21 or more point loss so far they are ATS 2-0 in this spot. Hold your nose and take the Raiders.
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#11
Posted: 11/17/2012 3:35:55 AM
Always like your underdog picks 

GL this week 
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#12
Posted: 11/17/2012 4:08:13 AM
Great write ups buddy. Glad we're seeing eye to eye this week. Especially love the Pittsburgh, New England and Oakland plays. 
Lean Jax but they've burned me multiple times this year and I can't stomach losing any more money on those clowns. I think for them to cover their defense will have to step up so Under may be a better play. 
Cashed in with the Chiefs also against Pitt and lean them this week but you have to wonder how many emotional losses this team can take before saying darn it. 
Also like Arizona but not sure if they can get a consistent run game going. Calais possibly being out hurts also.
Two others I was looking at were Cleveland and Oakland..any thoughts on those?




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#13
Posted: 11/17/2012 4:09:22 AM
Cleveland and Detroit*
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#14
Posted: 11/17/2012 5:59:46 AM
Nice write ups. Ballsy picks with KC/Oakland, GL with the plays tomorrow
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Posted: 11/17/2012 7:47:43 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by shivaseven:

I've got teams that were blown out by 28 or more points at an ATS 9-1-1 the next week which would back your RAIDERS play. Difficult to lay points on the road with a defense that is historically bad.
 
This will be the third time the Raiders are following up on a 21 or more point loss so far they are ATS 2-0 in this spot. Hold your nose and take the Raiders.


Nice stats Shiva.

I held my nose while hitting submit several times this week....OAK/JAX/KC/ARZ....... If those teams have a bad day it will be a rough Sunday knowing I pissed away money on garbage.
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Posted: 11/17/2012 7:55:28 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nepatriots_12:

Great write ups buddy. Glad we're seeing eye to eye this week. Especially love the Pittsburgh, New England and Oakland plays. 
Lean Jax but they've burned me multiple times this year and I can't stomach losing any more money on those clowns. I think for them to cover their defense will have to step up so Under may be a better play. 
Cashed in with the Chiefs also against Pitt and lean them this week but you have to wonder how many emotional losses this team can take before saying darn it. 
Also like Arizona but not sure if they can get a consistent run game going. Calais possibly being out hurts also.
Two others I was looking at were Cleveland and Oakland..any thoughts on those?






I thought the same thing about KC but being at home where they've given their fans nothing and this being a winnable game negates that I think. If they were on the road this week they may very well lay down and get spanked.

I sniffed around the Cowboys for a day or so. Just a gut feeling they finally take care of business at home but I could never in a million years trust them laying this many off a big division road win. Situation says Cleveland but gut says Dallas so it's a pass.

I think it's Detroit or nothing there. You've got a division home dog in a must win game. I don't like fading good teams off a bye though and the road fav off a bye trend has continued to hit this year. I'm rooting for a Green Bay loss actually just to grab some futures on them when the prices adjust.
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#17
Posted: 11/17/2012 8:19:35 AM
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#18
Posted: 11/17/2012 10:42:21 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by andarmac99:

YTD: 30-20 ATS

Arizona +10

Continuing the theme of buying low this week I hit the Cards. Long gone is their 4-0 start and now fresh in everyone's mind is the fact this team looks dreaful on offense
and has lost 5 straight games and haven't covered since September. Now they can sneak in fresh and rested off the bye under the radar with that solid defense and perhaps catch the Falcons napping. This is a ton of points to give to a team that still has a very solid defense (though Campbell is iffy) and despite the numbers has an offense that looked to be coming around a bit in their last game before the bye. With Skelton still back there and 2 weeks to get ready they may find a rhythm here.

Atlanta is simply not good enough to lay double digits. Although there are playmakers galore in the pass game the reality is the rest of this team is weak. The run game has disappeared and the defense may be even worse than previous years sitting 30th in yards per rush, 26th in yards per pass to go along with 24th in 3rd down D and 23rd
in redzone D. Arizona has by far the better defense and they are the team catching double digits.

The stats are what they are but perhaps the biggest factor here for the Falcons is emotionally. They are coming off a really tough loss against their biggest rival. Now they play a team that has lost 5 straight while looking terrible. This is a tough game to get up for at this stage of the year. Making matters worse is the Falcons havea reason to look past the Cardinals considering they play big division games @ Tampa and against the Saints in the 11 days following this one. Atlanta doesn't blow teams out consistently either. 5 of their 8 wins have come by 7 points or less and the one really impressive win they have (over Denver) came thanks to three Manning picks and came in a game they would have lost had it gone 5 more minutes. I think this game is a lot closer than most believe.




Very nice season thus far. Work and a mba final have have made me way to busy to be on here lately. I like all of these. Already got 2 in and will most likely have the other 2 later today.
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#19
Posted: 11/17/2012 11:19:43 AM
gl bud, like a lot of those
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#20
Posted: 11/17/2012 1:57:06 PM
Mac- we agree on ALL 4...GOOD SIGN?
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#21
Posted: 11/17/2012 2:22:35 PM
Nice write up.  I'm with you on almost all your picks, except Oakland.  BOL!
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#22
Posted: 11/17/2012 2:42:58 PM
Really like the card.  Also think Oak can win, but I've been horrible betting NO games.  GL bud
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#23
Posted: 11/17/2012 3:00:48 PM
Love the plays but cant buy Oak. I just watched them play against the Ravens and there D is horrible. Alot worse then NO and NO O is way better then Oak. id lay the pts on this one.
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#24
Posted: 11/17/2012 3:20:49 PM
WoW.. I'm the same on every one of these games
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Posted: 11/17/2012 8:41:28 PM
Gl this week 
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