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So u fools gonna take Carolina like Jax last night.

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Posted: #1
Go with talent fools.  Denver is not overvalued.  They are the shiznit.
 
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Posted: #2
No the fools will take the Lions this week.
 
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Posted: #3
It was the worst officiated game of the season and its not even close but with saying that jags still might not have covered even if those horrific calls weren't made . They looked disintrested...
 
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Posted: #4
Carolina a tad better than Jacksonville, but this fool did take Detroit -1.  
 
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Posted: #5
I am staying away from Detroit game.  Minnesota seems to have our number especially in Minnesota.  It wasnt that bad of officiating, besides didnt matter Indy was gonna win/cover that game regarless. 
 
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Carolina is a tad bit better than Jags, no doubt.  But key word is tad.  Denver is better than Indy.  Not that these have anything to do with this game on Sunday.  The point of the thread is everyone wants to get cute and be the smart guy and ignore the talent on the field.  Why?  I dont know.  But Denver and Carolina are in a different class just like Indy and Jags where in a different class last night.  Go ahead and get cute, you might win a few.  This is a human controlled game and things do happen.  But betting on the more talented team when its not even close is the way to go.  If these teams where closer in talent levels I could see the random angles of letdown, homedog, etc...  But they aint Denver and Indy are above and beyond better than Carolina and Jax. 

 
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And by Vegas keeping these spreads nice and low it makes you guys overthink the shit and take the dog, when the spreads are weak and still time to take advantage of them.  Vegas will catch on eventually but still havent for some reason.
 
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Posted: #8
Man this guy is so smart. . .
 
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Posted: #9
No need to compare Jax and Carolina, Denver and Indy, thats just dumb.

Reason for the line:
This is Denver's second road game.  They flew to Cincy last week, went back to Denver and now fly all the way back to Carolina and have a divisional game against the Chargers the week after. 

If books wanted, they can make the line Denver-6.5 and still have the same action on em they have now. 


 
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Quote Originally Posted by mrquija27:

Carolina is a tad bit better than Jags, no doubt.  But key word is tad.  Denver is better than Indy.  Not that these have anything to do with this game on Sunday.  The point of the thread is everyone wants to get cute and be the smart guy and ignore the talent on the field.  Why?  I dont know.  But Denver and Carolina are in a different class just like Indy and Jags where in a different class last night.  Go ahead and get cute, you might win a few.  This is a human controlled game and things do happen.  But betting on the more talented team when its not even close is the way to go.  If these teams where closer in talent levels I could see the random angles of letdown, homedog, etc...  But they aint Denver and Indy are above and beyond better than Carolina and Jax. 


Not true.  Statistically speaking, Carolina has numbers of a top #15 team.  Jacksonville:  #32.  These two teams are not even close to the same.  Comparing them makes no sense at all.
 
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Quote Originally Posted by mrquija27:

Carolina is a tad bit better than Jags, no doubt.  But key word is tad.  Denver is better than Indy.  Not that these have anything to do with this game on Sunday.  The point of the thread is everyone wants to get cute and be the smart guy and ignore the talent on the field.  Why?  I dont know.  But Denver and Carolina are in a different class just like Indy and Jags where in a different class last night.  Go ahead and get cute, you might win a few.  This is a human controlled game and things do happen.  But betting on the more talented team when its not even close is the way to go.  If these teams where closer in talent levels I could see the random angles of letdown, homedog, etc...  But they aint Denver and Indy are above and beyond better than Carolina and Jax. 

You guys might not agree but at least learn how to read.

 
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Posted: #12
Yep, sign me up
 
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Quote Originally Posted by WizardOfOdd:

No need to compare Jax and Carolina, Denver and Indy, thats just dumb.

Reason for the line:
This is Denver's second road game.  They flew to Cincy last week, went back to Denver and now fly all the way back to Carolina and have a divisional game against the Chargers the week after. 

If books wanted, they can make the line Denver-6.5 and still have the same action on em they have now. 


7 road teams won by last week.  Not doing the math and not saying playing 2 road games isnt harder.  But dont put too much value on travel.  If Vegas is making this a low number based on travel.  Well the value is on Denver.  This has been my point.  Dont bet on trends and angles if the talent is a complete mismatch.  Thats it.  If you like Carolina no one is stopping you.  Feel free.  But the talents are not close.

 
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For the record I was on Carolina vs Bears and vs Wash.  I know you fools wont believe me.  But that is no care of mine.  Point is I am non biased on any one team.  Shit ive bet against my beloved Lions 3 times already this year.
 
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Quote Originally Posted by mrquija27:

7 road teams won by last week.  Not doing the math and not saying playing 2 road games isnt harder.  But dont put too much value on travel.  If Vegas is making this a low number based on travel.  Well the value is on Denver.  This has been my point.  Dont bet on trends and angles if the talent is a complete mismatch.  Thats it.  If you like Carolina no one is stopping you.  Feel free.  But the talents are not close.

I think Carolina has more talent than Denver, but bad coaching is the reason they have such a bad record.
 
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Posted: #16
Carolina does not have more talent than Denver, on either side of the ball. They have two wins this season, against New Orleans and Washington. Those are two of the worst defenses in the NFL. Carolina is averaging 19 points over their last 3 games while Denver is averaging 33.3 points over their last 3, two of which were road games. Denver's got this.
 
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Posted: #17
Carolina is way better then the jags. Not saying they will cover but come on lol. Also Blazing 5 has detroit so I think you should bet on your homer team this week. 
 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by mrquija27:

Go with talent fools.  Denver is not overvalued.  They are the shiznit.


Since this line has came out, there have been 21,000 ATS bets placed on the game. 89% of them are on the road favorite. If you don't call that overvalued, i'd love to hear what you think is
 
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Quote Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:



Since this line has came out, there have been 21,000 ATS bets placed on the game. 89% of them are on the road favorite. If you don't call that overvalued, i'd love to hear what you think is

Good point. 
 
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Posted: #20

Quote Originally Posted by Harry89:

I think Carolina has more talent than Denver, but bad coaching is the reason they have such a bad record.

 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by mrquija27:

And by Vegas keeping these spreads nice and low it makes you guys overthink the shit and take the dog, when the spreads are weak and still time to take advantage of them.  Vegas will catch on eventually but still havent for some reason.

 
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Posted: #22

I believe the game will be a good game. Carolina D has improved over last 4 games allowing 17 points a game. Denver played at Cinn and won by 8 points. Cinn D this year is not good at all(allowing over 31 points to clev,bal,wash). But it is Manning and he could destroy the panthers

 
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Quote Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:



Since this line has came out, there have been 21,000 ATS bets placed on the game. 89% of them are on the road favorite. If you don't call that overvalued, i'd love to hear what you think is

So now every time a team is bet a lot  that means they are overvalued???

Overvalued means a team is percieved better than what they really are.  If anything they are undervalued.  Nobody is giving this team championship team ability credit which is exactly what they are.  Carolina has won what 8 games out of 25 or something with Cam and company.  Denver is 5 out of 8 with Peyton.  You cant ignore the impact he has and has had on this team.  The entire team is focused like Peyton.  He brings another vibe to the team thats on a whole new level.  You talk about motivation all the time and human beings and their state of mind.  You cant get any better than the state of mind the Denver Broncos are in right now.  This team is only going to get better.  Your betting on them slowing down against the Panthers.  Like I said you might win.  But I certainly aint betting against Denver right now.  Good Luck, I still respect your angles but I think your way overlooking the talent and Denver on this one.

 
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Posted: #24

Quote Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:



Since this line has came out, there have been 21,000 ATS bets placed on the game. 89% of them are on the road favorite. If you don't call that overvalued, i'd love to hear what you think is

Another thing... I dont buy into the "sharp, public, square" nonsense too much.  But a buddy of mine does.  A LOT!!  Drives me fucking nuts!  But according to him, where you at Minnie I know you come on here you just dont talk, lol.  Anyways according to him only the "SHARP" betters bet early and take advantage of the lines and the "PUBLIC" wait til game day.   Whats your take on that???  This would indicate a lot of those plays are "SHARP" no??

 
 
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by Donnie_Baseball:


Laugh it up homie, Im loving this year.  3rd year in and doing well for myself. 

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