Trends ATS

The trends shows that Dogs are hitting at a rate of 61.21% ATS and away Dogs are hitting 64%.

It's halfway through the season.

Does this mean we should start betting Favs especially Home Favs?

I remember the same thing happened in the NBA last season where the Under was hitting like crazy the first half of the season and by the end of the season the Over and Under trends were almost 50/50. I know that's the NBA and this is the NFL. Might of been due to the lockout.

I'm just saying shouldn't the trends be 50/50 by the end of the NFL season. 

Nothing good last forever.

OMG, you read my mind...YES, I think the lines are dead on and the home fav's need as many wins as possible going into the second half of the season..last week my card had only 3 favs (Pats, GB, Tenn) and this week, I only picked 3 dogs. HOME FAVORITES PUT UP BIG NUMBERS THIS WEEK..and even a few Away Favs such as the Lions and the Bears.

Just a thought for chew!

I expect FAVS to start hitting this week.

I have a friend who has been betting since before I knew him in the mid 80s, and he's the one who got me started betting NFL decades ago. We don't think alike however. He typically bets favs. He will scour the card and look for the favorite he is most comfortable laying points with. He almost NEVER bets dogs!
He is my friend, but he is also a loser!  Decades and decades of losing. He doesn't learn, he never will.
Last week, his POW was Phil. I told him it was going to be a loser. He bought into all the hype about Andy Reid coming off the bye. I asked him how many times in those past years was his team facing another team ALSO coming off a bye, and an undefeated team at that? Didn't matter, he made it his biggest play of the year so far, and he was/is not a happy camper to say the least...
I will bet according to the situation. I will pass the first month of the season until I get a good feel for what's going on. I know from my own experience that betting favs is the best way to get hammered over time.
Joe public loves betting favs. Joe Book loves taking fav bettor's money. That's the way it is, it will always be. When favs cover more, the lines will go up, and then they won't.
You have to take the specific situations of every play into consideration, and make your picks accordingly.
You seem to think that the rate of success Favs/Dogs should be 50/50. It isn't. It hasn't. It never will. Betting favs solely because you think the statistics are skewed will get you crushed.
Just my 2cents worth.
BOL

Ive been betting the NFL for over 20 years & I have seen years where the dogs barked all year & covered over 60% for the entire year.................the NFL is the bookies bread & butter...............in 2003, the favs covered over 60% but that was an anomaly.................

 

Good points, also note that there are no dominant teams this year like there has in been in recent years. The packers, pats, steelers as well as several other teams have been much better in the past. I think that any team is as good as the next this year not looking at the spreads. I think what you may see is a few favorites start to catch a little fire towards the end of the year. I wouldn't go crazy picking favs but rather pick a few to roll out as the season dwindles. I like the Pats (easy schedule), Niners, and Texans.

I'm on the same page as you, agree 100%

And in this "age of parity", it's more so than ever IMO!

WOOF!