*** Green Bay Packers @ Houston Texans ***

Green Bay Packers @ Houston Texans

This will be my 2nd and last play for Sunday. I chose the Colts over the Packers last week for a few reasons. One being that the perception of the Packers this year being the same offensive juggernaut as previous year's was false. They have no run game and defenses know that and have decided to drop everyone back in coverage as the Pack have become so one-dimensional. The Texans have the offense to score frequently on this Packer defense but will they have enough to win the game? I don't think so. There are a few things I like going for the Packers this weekend. First, Cedric Benson is out. Benson blows. He's almost guaranteed to give you 3 yards per carry everytime he touches the ball. He is no threat to run one back, ever. Maybe bringing in a younger, faster RB will make the defenses play the run a bit more. Secondly, Cushing's absense is being underplayed currently. He is a huge piece to the Texans defense and easily the second best player on that defense behind JJ Watt. I love betting on teams when there backs are against the wall and everyone starts to count them out, especially veteran championship teams. How many times did we hear on ESPN about the Packers offense this week and how they are struggling? You can bet the Packers are hearing it too and won't be too pleased. I expect Rodgers to have a big game here and you can always count on Mike McCarthy to have a good gameplan up his sleeve off a loss. People think this is a statement game for the Texans but they are catching an angry Packers team that will be too much for them. Texans are still a young team who are only 1-4 ATS on primetime. Bad spot for them here.

Green Bay Packers +3.5 / ML
Green Bay Packers TT Over 22
Packers +10.5 / Cowboys +10.5

great writeup and should be a great game

LIKE IT! Except for DALLAS?? Why not tease the PATS to +2.5. The Patriots WILL win that game(against Seattle)..and thats a promise!

GB +3.5
GB ML
&
GB +9.5/ PATS +2.5.

Now that looks solid.

Agreed. Aaron Rodgers will carve up that secondary. Was waiting for you to mention Cushing. He is a critical piece to that defense. And I really feel the same way about C.Benson.

Thx LC.
If you're right with this one and I believe you are, I am a wiser man as well.
GL

First i'd like to thank you for your write-ups and what you do for the forums. The TNF write-up was spot on.

I can't see GB beating Houston in Houston....maybe if the game was in GB.  They have no running game without Benson.  

@Hockeyjock
Let me start by saying if there's a quarterback in this league who can outsmarts a good defense its Rodgers. The absense of C.Benson only makes this game that much more dangerous for Houston. If we were to go back and watch film of the HOU/NYJ game you would find a bunch of receivers open whom Sanchez just could not connect with. GB has a much better group of receivers along with AR. A weakness has been exposed in Houston's secondary. And you also mentioned PLAY ACTION PASS. That would actually work in favor of Clay Matthews with his speed off the edge. GB secondary is much better than what they appeared to be vs Indi. I can see Houston having success with the run but having a more difficult time on 3rd and long.

Sorry you did not mention PAP. Someone else did.

Gbay +3.5 is the play here...Even if Texans are up by 10 late in the game you know the back door is coming. Texans defense is average at best defending the pass game. Did you not see Joseph get constantly beat by wideouts that the Jets picked up off the streets. Also, who the hell have the Texans played? Nobody.

GB was so one-dimensional last week that it will help them this week. They blew a 21-3 lead because they kep't passing the ball and couldnt get first downs. The Packers and the coaching staff knows now more than ever they need to establish a run game. McCarthy is a great coach, he will realize this. Texans have their best linebacker out for the game so GB will have a better than normal run performance and Rodgers will be able to do short outlet passes to his RB and exploit Cushing's absence. Houston has been cruising steady beating all the crappy teams in the league while GB is off an embarrassing loss blowing an 18 point lead to the Colts. Great spot to back the Packers here

Dang LC, I was leaning Texans. I see Houston giving GB a heavy dose of Foster & Tate. Which will open up lots of play actions against a GB defense that ranks 25th against the pass. Also, GB is 0-2 on the road SU & ATS. Not to mention Rodgers hasn't done too well against good defenses. I do agree with what you said about Cushing, but I think the other defensive teammates will step up in his absence. I'm still looking into this game but will most likely still go with the Texans. Good luck with your plays

On Houston but BOL my friend.,

If Greg Jennings is playing, I'll be all over the Packs as well. Notice how the offense struggles at time when Jennings isn't playing. Nelson is a solid receiver, but I feel he is best suited to being a #2. At times he makes tremendous catches look easy, but then there are times when he drops passes in critical moments.

GL

League - very solid plays...I am w/ya on Packers & Cowboys.

 

The thing that worries me with Green Bay is Houston getting to Rodgers.  Rodgers has been sacked 21 times this year which is the second most in the league.  Houston is tied for 6th in the league with an average of 5 sacks per game.  

Hi much respect for your hard work. You are spot on when you break down a game. I`m with you and GB this week! It is more of a situational play than anything else. They need the win bad, to shake that monkey off their back. Like you mentioned they had a 21-3 last week against IND and could not put them away. This will not repeat it self this week. Good pick. By the way are you still going ahead and picking the Dallas?

we are on fire bro...ar tenn and over yestd

UMMMM no benson and newhouse at lt  against JJ = rodgers getting sacked all night. If jermichael finley doesnt play pack have no chance.  Pack let Luck kill them which doesnt bold well against schaub and texans.  texans roll

league.....good call on the over last nite....(thought i had that one ).....

i like your write ups so much im gonna have to stop reading them. i cant think for myself anymore! lol

2After listening to all the post game excuses from GB I came to the conclusion that they are living in the dangerous world of "knowing that they dont know"  Comments like "We had great pass protection it the 1st half, but somehow we could not stop the 2nd half pass rush" This is a continuing problem with the Packers...not only for pass protection but their run offense also is not consistent. There offensive play calling also is inconsistent. There defensive pass  rush,outside of Mathews, does not exist. Houston's defensive coord will have a game plan to diminish their passing game....I have always been a fan for many years and I find it sad to say they are on a down hill slide....adding to that the Bears and Viks are going in the opposite direction.  Hou wins and covers

Finley hasn't done anything for 2 years straight, they'll be fine even if he doesn't play. And the Packers beat themselves last week, don't forget they were up 21-3. Mistakes that are easily correctable. (atleast for 1 week)