|YTD: -0.6 units
Posted: 10/10/2012 5:58:32 PM
ATS: 21-18-1 (+1.5 units)
TOTALS: 4-1-2 (+2.9 units)
Parlays: 1-12-0 (-1.75 units)
Teasers: 0-5-0 (-2.75 units)
Pleasers: 0-2-0 (-0.5 units)
Thursday Night Football
Tennessee Titans +6 over Pittsburgh Steelers (1 unit)
Tennessee Titans +215 over Pittsburgh Steelers (0.5 unit)
The Titans are one of the worst teams in the league, there's no denying that now. But like I've said before, they do have talent. WR Kenny Britt is healthier than he's been since last year. I think he has a big game this week. QB Matt Hasselbeck is old now but he's still a wily vet who can pull off an upset here. The Steelers stink on the road, especially when they're laying chalk (see @KC, @IND last year). The Titans finally put together a big effort here and get their 2nd win of the season over an overrated Steelers team.
Kansas City Chiefs +4 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1 unit)
Kansas City Chiefs +179 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0.5 unit)
Let's be honest here, were it not for Matt Cassel, the Chiefs would have won last week. They ran for 200+ yards. Cassel has been a turnover machine and is out this week. Enter Brady Quinn, the much-maligned first-round bust. He's been awful. But how many times have we seen a bust catch on with another team after years of sucking? I think Quinn will do a better job at managing the game than Cassel did. I think that the Chiefs run all over the Bucs and win outright. The Bucs offense is pitiful and they lose a scrappy one here 20-16.
Atlanta Falcons -9 over Oakland Raiders (1 unit)
The Falcons are legit this year, and they're nasty at home. The Raiders have one of the worst pass Ds in the league and get to face off against Matty Ice, Julio Jones, Roddy White, and Tony Gonzalez. We seen what the Broncos did to them two weeks ago. This has the look of a 31-17 kind of game.
Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 over Detroit Lions (1 unit)
The Detroit Lions are not the same team as last year. Why do the books continue to give them respect? This spread should be -5.5 to -7. The Eagles D is nasty and they go against a struggling Detroit O. I think the Eagles roll here to the tune of a 28-13 win.
St. Louis Rams/Miami Dolphins UNDER 37.5 (1 unit)
These are the two scrappiest teams in football, with the two most underrated defenses. I have no lean on a side here, it can go either way. But I do think this will be one of those scrappy games that characterizes these two teams. The Rams will struggle to run the football and the Dolphins might struggle moving the ball through the air as the Rams boast a solid pass D. This reeks of a 17-13 game either way.
Dallas Cowboys +3.5 over Baltimore Ravens (1 unit)
Dallas Cowboys +160 over Baltimore Ravens (0.5 unit)
The Cowboys are fresh off a bye coming off a blowout loss to the Bears. This is the same enigmatic team every year that lays eggs when they're expected to win and comes up with huge victories when you least expect it. The Cowboys defense is legit, I believe they will shut down the Ravens passing game here. The Ravens should have lost last week to the Chiefs. Look for the Cowboys to establish their running game against this Ravens defense that is not nearly as good as it once was. Romo should have all day to throw against this lousy Ravens pass rush. Cowboys win 28-24.
New York Giants +7 (-130) over San Francisco 49ers (1 unit)
New York Giants +230 over San Francisco 49ers (0.5 unit)
The Niners are coming off two very impressive blowout wins. But we all know about the Giants and their success on the road. Forget the revenge BS, the Giants win here. Eli is playing like a top 3 QB and the G-MEN are likely to have Nicks back here. This is just way too much value on the Giants and I see them winning outright, 24-21.
Cleveland Browns -105 over Cincinnati Bengals (1 unit)
The Browns at 0-5 are probably the worst team in the league outside of the Jags. But their offense is full of young playmakers. RB Trent Richardson is a monster, WR Josh Gordon has a ton of talent and QB Brandon Weeden has a cannon. The Bengals D has not been good at all this season. To top it off, the Browns get their shutdown CB Joe Haden back this week. The Brownies are not bad enough to go 0-16 fellas. They win outright here.
Indianapolis Colts +3.5 (-120) over New York Jets (1 unit)
Indianapolis Colts +160 over New York Jets (0.5 unit)
Rookie QB Andrew Luck might already be one of the best QBs in the game. He's that good. The Jets are atrocious, this spread should be something like Indy -1. Without Holmes and Revis they are a bottom 5 team in the league. The Colts are getting better every week and Luck should shred this Jets D which is not as good anymore. This is probably the last week Mark Sanchez will be starting. Indy wins 27-17.
Monday Night Football
Denver Broncos -101 over San Diego Chargers (1 unit)
The Broncos have had a damn tough schedule so far. Losses to the Texans, Falcons, and Pats: three of the best teams in the league. This is a huge game for them and I think they win a shootout over these Chargers. Aside from the 1st q in ATL, Peyton Manning has been lights out. Broncos get a big win here.
Teaser: Browns +7, Colts +9, Cowboys
+9.5, Eagles +2.5, Giants +12.5, Broncos +7 (1 unit to win 8 units)
-101, Browns -105, Giants +230, Chiefs +179, Colts +160, Cowboys +160 (0.25 unit to win 60.2 units)
Lots of action, gimme that