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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Week 6 Picks with Write-ups (TNF, MNF included)
rg3skins
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#1
Posted: 10/10/2012 5:58:32 PM
YTD: -0.6 units
ATS: 21-18-1 (+1.5 units)
TOTALS: 4-1-2 (+2.9 units)
Parlays: 1-12-0 (-1.75 units)
Teasers: 0-5-0 (-2.75 units)
Pleasers: 0-2-0 (-0.5 units)

Thursday Night Football

Tennessee Titans +6 over Pittsburgh Steelers (1 unit)
Tennessee Titans +215 over Pittsburgh Steelers (0.5 unit)

The Titans are one of the worst teams in the league, there's no denying that now. But like I've said before, they do have talent. WR Kenny Britt is healthier than he's been since last year. I think he has a big game this week. QB Matt Hasselbeck is old now but he's still a wily vet who can pull off an upset here. The Steelers stink on the road, especially when they're laying chalk (see @KC, @IND last year). The Titans finally put together a big effort here and get their 2nd win of the season over an overrated Steelers team.

Sunday

Kansas City Chiefs +4 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1 unit)
Kansas City Chiefs +179 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0.5 unit)
Let's be honest here, were it not for Matt Cassel, the Chiefs would have won last week. They ran for 200+ yards. Cassel has been a turnover machine and is out this week. Enter Brady Quinn, the much-maligned first-round bust. He's been awful. But how many times have we seen a bust catch on with another team after years of sucking? I think Quinn will do a better job at managing the game than Cassel did. I think that the Chiefs run all over the Bucs and win outright. The Bucs offense is pitiful and they lose a scrappy one here 20-16. 

Atlanta Falcons -9 over Oakland Raiders (1 unit)
The Falcons are legit this year, and they're nasty at home. The Raiders have one of the worst pass Ds in the league and get to face off against Matty Ice, Julio Jones, Roddy White, and Tony Gonzalez. We seen what the Broncos did to them two weeks ago. This has the look of a 31-17 kind of game.

Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 over Detroit Lions (1 unit)
The Detroit Lions are not the same team as last year. Why do the books continue to give them respect? This spread should be -5.5 to -7. The Eagles D is nasty and they go against a struggling Detroit O. I think the Eagles roll here to the tune of a 28-13 win.

St. Louis Rams/Miami Dolphins UNDER 37.5 (1 unit)
These are the two scrappiest teams in football, with the two most underrated defenses. I have no lean on a side here, it can go either way. But I do think this will be one of those scrappy games that characterizes these two teams. The Rams will struggle to run the football and the Dolphins might struggle moving the ball through the air as the Rams boast a solid pass D. This reeks of a 17-13 game either way.

Dallas Cowboys +3.5 over Baltimore Ravens (1 unit)
Dallas Cowboys +160 over Baltimore Ravens (0.5 unit)
The Cowboys are fresh off a bye coming off a blowout loss to the Bears. This is the same enigmatic team every year that lays eggs when they're expected to win and comes up with huge victories when you least expect it. The Cowboys defense is legit, I believe they will shut down the Ravens passing game here. The Ravens should have lost last week to the Chiefs. Look for the Cowboys to establish their running game against this Ravens defense that is not nearly as good as it once was. Romo should have all day to throw against this lousy Ravens pass rush. Cowboys win 28-24. 

New York Giants +7 (-130) over San Francisco 49ers (1 unit)
New York Giants +230 over San Francisco 49ers (0.5 unit)
The Niners are coming off two very impressive blowout wins. But we all know about the Giants and their success on the road. Forget the revenge BS, the Giants win here. Eli is playing like a top 3 QB and the G-MEN are likely to have Nicks back here. This is just way too much value on the Giants and I see them winning outright, 24-21.

Cleveland Browns -105 over Cincinnati Bengals (1 unit)
The Browns at 0-5 are probably the worst team in the league outside of the Jags. But their offense is full of young playmakers. RB Trent Richardson is a monster, WR Josh Gordon has a ton of talent and QB Brandon Weeden has a cannon. The Bengals D has not been good at all this season. To top it off, the Browns get their shutdown CB Joe Haden back this week. The Brownies are not bad enough to go 0-16 fellas. They win outright here.

Indianapolis Colts +3.5 (-120) over New York Jets (1 unit)
Indianapolis Colts +160 over New York Jets (0.5 unit)
Rookie QB Andrew Luck might already be one of the best QBs in the game. He's that good. The Jets are atrocious, this spread should be something like Indy -1. Without Holmes and Revis they are a bottom 5 team in the league. The Colts are getting better every week and Luck should shred this Jets D which is not as good anymore. This is probably the last week Mark Sanchez will be starting. Indy wins 27-17.

Monday Night Football
Denver Broncos -101 over San Diego Chargers (1 unit)
The Broncos have had a damn tough schedule so far. Losses to the Texans, Falcons, and Pats: three of the best teams in the league. This is a huge game for them and I think they win a shootout over these Chargers. Aside from the 1st q in ATL, Peyton Manning has been lights out. Broncos get a big win here.

Teaser: Browns +7, Colts +9, Cowboys +9.5, Eagles +2.5, Giants +12.5, Broncos +7 (1 unit to win 8 units)

Parlay: Broncos -101, Browns -105, Giants +230, Chiefs +179, Colts +160, Cowboys +160 (0.25 unit to win 60.2 units)

Lots of action, gimme that 

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rg3skins
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#2
Posted: 10/10/2012 6:20:26 PM
What does everyone think about the Bills this week?
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#3
Posted: 10/10/2012 6:33:28 PM
The bills under would be my play. Mario Williams might finally have a game with that atrocious O-line in Arizona, but the Bills are playing the worst football in the league, the first team to give up back to back 550+ yard games since 1950.
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#4
Posted: 10/10/2012 6:38:08 PM
I'm personally on the Cards. Bills suck historically on the west coast and I see the back to back west coast trips really throwing them off. The Bills have given up on average 37.5pts/game in their last 8 road contests so I think the Cards have a chance to score some points. I think the Cards D is designed to stop the Bills O.

I think if Peterson can lock down Stevie Johnson then Fitzpatrick will really struggle. I also think Scott Chandler will have to stay in to help block on passing plays limiting their offensive upside.




On a side note, I would not downplay the revenge angle in the 49ers/GMen game. Harbaugh is the kind of guy that will have his team playing at 120% in these scenarios.

Stanford Pac12 Losses 2009:
@ Oregon St 28-38
@ Arizona 38-43
Cal 28-34

2010:
Oregon St 38-0
Arizona 42-17
@Cal 48-14

This is the same man who lost to USC in 2008, 45 to 23, where USC was clearly trying to run it up. In 2009, Stanford beat USC 55-21 and Harbaugh went for 2 after being up 48-21 with 6min left in the 4th.

Bottom line is that this man loves revenge and I would never bet against him in this spot.

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#5
Posted: 10/10/2012 6:45:26 PM
all your betting are dog ML's basically?? GL
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#6
Posted: 10/10/2012 6:55:30 PM
In Harbaugh's 2009 and 2010 seasons at Stanford, when facing teams Stanford lost to the previous year, Stanford went 8-2 ATS in the revenge situation.

Harbaugh led teams since 2009 have gone 31-13 ATS total and 16-5 ATS at home. 
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#7
Posted: 10/10/2012 7:04:57 PM
Love the parlay Sir 
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#8
Posted: 10/10/2012 7:24:23 PM
Nice card 

One thing that I do disagree with is your analysis of the KC game. Yes, KC is at the top of the league in rushing, but TB is very good at stopping the run this year (73 yds per gm). I like TB's Defense. They are a young, very fast unit....Aside from the 2nd half of the NYG game, they've looked really good. 
Brady Quinn?... Nah, Jamal Charles will have to beat them single handed... And he had over 30 carries last week.. He should be burnt by the 2nd quarter.
Im rolling with TB coming off a tough home loss to Washington and then the bye week 
GL with your plays! 
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rg3skins
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Posted: 10/10/2012 7:35:17 PM
Magic_Steam, your right. TB's run D has been solid. But against a team that can run the ball like KC can, they will have problems. A similar elite running O (WSH) really caused them problems. But that game can go either way, I just think laying 4 with this ultra-conservative Bucs O isn't worth it.

cam2smitty, great analysis as always. Maybe I shouldn't be downplaying the revenge factor but I just feel like 7 is so much value on the Giants. The way Eli is playing right now, they can beat anybody.

shooter15, couple weeks ago I had a similar parlay where I almost won double that where I only lost with the Browns. Hopefully this one cashes. 
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#10
Posted: 10/11/2012 12:14:01 AM
I really like KC. This game will come down to converting on 3rd down.

KC 3rd down conversion rate is 46%
TB 3rd down conversion rate is 25%

In a game that will feature lots of running and mediocre QB play we can expect many FGs. In a FG battle I will side with the team that converts on 3rd down and is getting 4 points. Seems like the safer bet in my opinion.

*I think Brady Quinn will surprise people (TB is ranked 32nd against the pass fyi)

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#11
Posted: 10/11/2012 12:14:13 AM
I really like KC. This game will come down to converting on 3rd down.

KC 3rd down conversion rate is 46%
TB 3rd down conversion rate is 25%

In a game that will feature lots of running and mediocre QB play we can expect many FGs. In a FG battle I will side with the team that converts on 3rd down and is getting 4 points. Seems like the safer bet in my opinion.

*I think Brady Quinn will surprise people (TB is ranked 32nd against the pass fyi)

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#12
Posted: 10/11/2012 12:21:19 AM
I really like KC. This game will come down to converting on 3rd down.

KC 3rd down conversion rate is 46%
TB 3rd down conversion rate is 25%

In a game that will feature lots of running and mediocre QB play we can expect many FGs. In a FG battle I will side with the team that converts on 3rd down and is getting 4 points. Seems like the safer bet in my opinion.

*I think Brady Quinn will surprise people (TB is ranked 32nd against the pass fyi). Had KC not been flagged for Pass Interference on the WR pick play, KC would have beaten Baltimore and we would be talking about Quinn and the Chiefs in a much different light. 

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#13
Posted: 10/11/2012 12:48:03 AM
Good plays! I'm with you on Titans Chiefs and Giants
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Posted: 10/11/2012 12:54:35 AM
Nicks hasn't been practicing, but if he can play it would be a major boost
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rg3skins
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Posted: 10/11/2012 5:35:48 PM
I kind of worry about the Falcons covering that big chalk, but with the Raiders pass D and the Falcons being home I had to do it. From what I've read Nicks is likely to play. But to be honest, I like the Giants with or without him, Eli is playing the best football of his career right now. 

cam2smitty, what in the HELL is wrong with your Panthers this year? I expected much better from them but wow this is ridiculous.
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#16
Posted: 10/11/2012 6:59:07 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by rg3skins:

I kind of worry about the Falcons covering that big chalk, but with the Raiders pass D and the Falcons being home I had to do it. From what I've read Nicks is likely to play. But to be honest, I like the Giants with or without him, Eli is playing the best football of his career right now. 

cam2smitty, what in the HELL is wrong with your Panthers this year? I expected much better from them but wow this is ridiculous.

Hah garbage if I know. Patchwork secondary (starting a rookie CB + Nakamura looking like a bust) and Beason clearly not 100% is really hurting the defense. The DC is having to put a safety overtop just about every play to help the bad CB play which is detracting from the unit as a whole. 

Cam is clearly having a sophomore slump, but it's a lot to do with the system. Teams are taking away the deep ball but Cam is still looking for it and when he doesn't see it he panics and scrambles instead of hitting his checkdown. 

Thinking the Panthers snag Dee Milliner in the draft which should help build for next year, Gamble is really showing his age. 

Would only bet on them against teams with bad pass defenses. Only way the Panthers can keep up if the defense doesn't get it together. Could have some value here as people write them off. 

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Posted: 10/11/2012 9:29:57 PM
Agreed. Like KC, the Panthers are not as bad as they've looked. I'm thinking they come out of the bye re-establishing that vaunted running game and will present future value.

Titans off to a good start. Maurkice Pouncey out of the game. UH OH Steelers.
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#18
Posted: 10/11/2012 11:59:48 PM
BOOM Titans win outright.

+2u night. They aren't as bad as they've looked.Next 2 weeks they got the Bills and Colts they can very easily win both games.
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#19
Posted: 10/12/2012 12:01:23 AM
Great win bro! Next one I'm on with you are the Chiefs
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rg3skins
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#20
Posted: 10/12/2012 12:03:11 AM
Thx man love the Chiefs. Really think they get it done against that ugly, conservative offense they're running there in Tampa. It's that standard dink and dunk BS. Freeman is terrible.
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#21
Posted: 10/13/2012 11:30:37 AM
I've seen lots of love for the Lions this week. Why? This team played over its heads last year. They look like a 6 win team this year. Their D is not good enough and they have no semblance of a running game. Matt Stafford is struggling and goes up against a Top-5 Eagles D this week. And the Eagles, even though they've turned the ball over like crazy, are still a good team. They're due to really explode offensively. I think they do it this week.
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#22
Posted: 10/13/2012 12:55:12 PM
GL, mate.
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#23
Posted: 10/13/2012 3:02:08 PM
Best of Luck 
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#24
Posted: 10/13/2012 4:25:37 PM
Detroit does not want to fall to 1-4 in a division with the Bears and Packers.  The thinking here is that the Lions have a shot at a road win coming off a bye vs a turnover prone team that has only played close games all season. 
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#25
Posted: 10/13/2012 6:53:31 PM
That means nothing. No team wants to fall to 1-4. The Lions are awful and Stafford is playing like complete garbage. They could win who knows, but I just think the line is based on last year's Lions team not this year's. 

What's everyone's thoughts on the Sunday nighter? Lots of injuries for GB - Jennings, Benson out; Finley game-time decision. Randall Cobb will have a big game. Tough call here but this Packers O is not the same this year.
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