My Covers Rant

Anyone that's known me over the years knows I don't like to make trouble or stir shit.  Uusually, I'll post my plays then deal with the consequences if they lose or soak in the glory if they win.  I will pop into threads of some of the old timers here at covers, wish them luck, even though we may be on different sides, and move on, not wanting to waste my time with all the various in game threads, complaining and gloating.

Here's what I've noticed though and perhaps I might be getting picky in my old age (isn't 43 the new 60? lol) or perhaps I've just been around too long that these things really get on my nerves.

However, here's what makes you a better handicapper. STUDY STUDY STUDY.  Learn how to keep power rankings and learn how to populate a game total.  in essence, more people need to learn how to handicap a game and you will start to see that even if you lose, in many occassions, you will have seen that you did have the right side or total but a botched field goal here, a fluky big play there and you lose the game.  That doesn't mean you poorly handicapped the game, it means that you nailed it but were done in by a big play that you can't handicap, you just have learn to live with those plays as part of the game.

But what really turns my crank is the methodoligy being employed by a greater numbers of covers posters. That is, counting the footbal thread to get a read on who is playing what and trying to make a betting decision based on that.  I read a couple posts last night discussion how everyone was on the Jets and for that reason they were going Houston.  COVERS IS NOT a proxy for the betting market.  This is what is meant by doing homework.  Official stats out of Vegas indicate that 68% of the public money last night was on the Texans.

I am also tired of these guys, usually the $20.00 bettor who comes in blasting their aura of un-earned confidence and guaranteeing this or that, calling anyone on the dog (using last night as an example) and talking smack like they know the final score already.  Funny, these guys hit a couple of these "obvious" bets and then feel the need to come out boasting every week about how everyone is off their rocker for taking a particular team.  I can't tell you how these guys irk me.  However, as we know, they are usually around for a few weeks until they make utter fools of themselves and then create new accounts.  I can't tell you how many I suspect of being other posters who shared the same syntax and tone.

I'm also tired of these "fix" or "trap" line threads.  They don't exisit.  Get them out of your head.  Let's use last night as an example.  The perception was Houston was going to roll over the Jets because the 49ers shut them out.  However, you really think that laying 10 points on the road on prime time is a smart wager? You are almost inclined to take the double digit home prime time dog in those situations as there was clearly an over-reaction and as a result, the sports books had to over price the Texans.  Those that do their homework and understand how lines are set knew this.  The true line for last night's game was no more than a touchdown.

I don't mind guys posting the wrong side with reasons and losing.  I am irked by these pompous kids that boast why making a certain bet is just stupid and smack down anyone making it. 

I stayed off covers for a couple years of full-time posting because those types of threads were just to frequent.  I don't mind being back but rest assured, I will call out these guys from here on in just because they are such a nuisance, then have the audacity to blast some of the old-timers for making a losing bet because in their eyes, the other side was THE lock, despite the fact they never posted a selection before the game.

If these fricken kids want to dish it with their $20.0 plays then they better take it.  I've posted my tickets on twitter many times, a few guys here that follow me can attest to the fact that I'm betting 2-4 dimes a game ... believe me when I say, I can spot a 20 dollar better by the first line of their post.

Guys, you want to learn, follow some of the regular oldtimers. They know who they are.  I won't post usernames because I don't want to offend anyone for leaving them out if I forget one or two. 

Forget counting a consensus of who is playing what ... spend that half our handicapping the friggen game.  Learn something.... read a book on how to make your own power numbers and how to make your own totals and stick to it. Then, shop for your best number. (always have 2-3 "outs" and make sure one of them allows you to buy points.  The ability to buy off 40.5 last night would have saved over bettors a ton of change when the game landed squarely on 40.

Cheers.

I overall agree with you but you can't handicap a game 'after the fact' and then tell us who should have covered.  Anyone can do that.  Yea, the Jets covered because of this and that.

As for handicapping and being on the wrong side 'because of an unexpected play'.  Well, don't all games basically have an unexpected plays or two?  You are either a winner or loser.  There's no such thing as being a good handicapper but lost the bet.  No one cares that you were 'this close to winning'- either you win or you lose.  No excuses.  There's alot of losers that were 'that close' and keep on losing and blaming unexpected plays.  After awhile, as a gambler you just gotta admit you suck, your handicapping sucks, and you are a loser. 

Quote Originally Posted by mariner24:

  i meant fever, not the guy right above me

Cheers Mariner, you got the point I was making, obviously Mariner24 didn't, which speaks exactly to my point.  He seemed to focus only on the money and disregarded the entire point of the post.

tjohnsont .. I wasn't handicapping the game after the point my friend.  I was using last night's game as an example only  because it was the freshest in my head. if you lose day after day then I agree, it's time to find another hobby.  However, there are games you handicap, have it called correctly and then you get that last drive fumble or pick-6 that screws the play. Those are the rare occassions that I am referring to.

_keyser_soze_ ok bud ... you keep believeing what you want I don't need to prove myself to you.  You obviously didn't get the point of my post.  You chose to selectively chose what you wanted to bash when missing the entire point. I could care less if someone bets $10, $20 or $20,000 a game.  The point was, I am getting increasingly tired of the newbs bashing others for their plays as if people are taking money out of their pockets.

Here's what I said if you actually read the entire thread   

"I am also tired of these guys, usually the $20.00 bettor who comes in blasting their aura of un-earned confidence and guaranteeing this or that, calling anyone on the dog (using last night as an example) and talking smack like they know the final score already. Funny, these guys hit a couple of these "obvious" bets and then feel the need to come out boasting every week about how everyone is off their rocker for taking a particular team. I can't tell you how these guys irk me. However, as we know, they are usually around for a few weeks until they make utter fools of themselves and then create new accounts. I can't tell you how many I suspect of being other posters who shared the same syntax and tone. "

I wasn't bashing the $20.00 bettor .. I was taking issue with the $20.00 bettor who comes into peoples threads or posts their own in which they bash, call out other posters who may have had a bad night and just want to pound their chest like children.

You don't have to believe me ... quite frankly I don't care.  I don't need to prove myself to you which is why I list my plays as units because there are still many here who refuse to acknowledge the fact that there are bigger bettors out there.  

Read my thread again and see if you can "get the point" of it without focussing on the money part. I've seen $20.00 bettors with more respect and constraint than seasoned veterans ... however, the childish behaviour here is at an all time high, just as a lot of some of the old timers are starting to come back. It's unforatunate really to read "so and so + (insert names of 4 other vets) sucks because they didn't see the obvious play" when the dude doing the bashing doesn't even post a play to begin with.

Have a good day ... I really could care less what you think about my betting amounts.  I certainly wouldn't spend upwards of 30 hours a week handicapping if I was betting $100.00 a game.

Have a good day.  

Yes, you got a habit of never posting anything for yourself but just dancing around the trheads busting balls. lol ... post a few plays genius ... oh that's right .... you just call out perceived "liars".  Fantastic day job if you can get it.  Have a nice day.

Kind of like that kick return last night?

Your spot on my man.  But who cares what these idiots do.  I just laugh at them.  I myself am 29 and in my 3rd year of doing this fulltime.  Not for a living I have a day job.  But it boggles my mind how many people dont understand the basics.  But I cant agree more with pretty much everything you said.

Statwise, it's still not a good move but I am glad it worked out for you last night.

keyser- on a side note, please don't tell me that woman in your avi is your type of woman!