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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: *** Houston Texans @ New York Jets ***
LeagueCapper send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 10/8/2012 5:45:02 PM
Houston Texans @ New York Jets

A team is never as good or bad as they looked the week before. Even though the Texans have a great defense, they are ranked #22nd in rush defense in terms of YPC allowed, and that's against crappy teams. In fact, Houston has beat up on teams with a combined record of 6-14 and are now asked to cover more than a touchdown on the road on MNF against a team with their backs against the walls. This line is an absolute joke and a huge overreaction to what took place last week. Ten days ago, the advanced line for this game was +1 at the Hilton. After the Jets got clobbered against the 49ers and Santonio Holmes got injured, the spread has changed 10 points. 10 POINTS!! Anyone who takes the Texans ATS now, just remember that you are buying an inflated line that has changed 10 points against you with the only real difference in the game being that Santonio Holmes is out. (Revis was already ruled out before the advanced line was released).

People love to boast about Houston top ranked defense but I'll repeat myself, they are still ranked #22 in YPC allowed.

Chris Johnson vs NE: 11 attempts for 4 yards (0.4 YPC)
Chris Johnson vs SD: 8 attempts for 17 yards (2.1 YPC)
Chris Johnson vs DET: 14 attempts for 24 yards (1.7 YPC)
Chris Johnson vs MIN: 15 attempts for 24 yards (1.6 YPC)

Chris Johnson vs HOU: 25 attempts for 141 yards (5.6 YPC)

I expect the Jets to run the ball on first down, on second down, and even on third down. Sometimes it will be effective, sometimes not, but it will setup easier play actions for Sanchez for the rest of the game.

Home dogs off a blowout loss are 17-4 ATS (80.1%) if facing an opponent off a blowout win where they got outgained in total yards.

Teams who were shutout at home are 21-10 ATS (67.7%) the next week over the past 13 years
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139395898-110/8/12 6:48am$209.61$153.00Pending10/8/12 8:35pm  NFL Football  436 New York Jets +10 -137* vs Houston Texans 

139395893-110/8/12 6:47am$100.00$340.00Pending10/8/12 8:35pm  Reduced Football  436 New York Jets +340* vs Houston Texans 

139395882-110/8/12 6:46am$685.00$500.00Pending10/8/12 8:35pm  NFL Football  436 New York Jets +10 -137* vs Houston Texans 

139395837-110/8/12 6:39am$274.00$200.00Pending10/8/12 8:35pm  NFL Football  436 New York Jets +10 -137* vs Houston Texans 
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#2
Posted: 10/8/2012 5:46:54 PM
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#3
Posted: 10/8/2012 5:47:33 PM
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#4
Posted: 10/8/2012 5:55:01 PM
As much as I hate the Jets (and trust me, I despise them) I completely agree and will be on them myself. Although it will sting pretty bad if they don't cover, and at that point I'll be mailing anthrax to the players and staff
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#5
Posted: 10/8/2012 6:03:28 PM
Love your work as always bud and will be tailing on the Jets tonight large
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#6
Posted: 10/8/2012 6:06:19 PM
@LeagueCapper: I understand your stance on this play, (situational-wise) it makes perfect sense.  As I've stated in other posts, I think those "other" variables (the push for Tim Tebow as QB controversy, key starters injured) is what causes Houston to cover, tonight.  Even though we're on different sides, good luck...
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#7
Posted: 10/8/2012 6:08:27 PM
I think a lot of CJs yards came in the 2nd half when this game was considered a W for the Texans. He didn't look like much in the 1st half
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#8
Posted: 10/8/2012 6:12:26 PM
do you have any any thoughts on over or unders?
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#9
Posted: 10/8/2012 6:17:52 PM
BOL bud
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#10
Posted: 10/8/2012 6:18:53 PM
snake2710

GuardiaDeMieux - those factors are already considered into the spread, so there's no point in you adding value to them.

mugz - CJ had 9 attempts for 52 yards in the first half against HOU. 5.78 YPC. Not to mention they have Matt Hasselback as QB who is absolutely no threat so HOU was selling out on the run. Texans just don't have that great of a run defense, they do excel at pass defense (#3 in the league) but I don't think that will help them that much this week as noone expects Sanchez to do much of anything anyways.

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#11
Posted: 10/8/2012 6:19:18 PM
bigslick24ak - i don't play O/U sorry. GL though
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#12
Posted: 10/8/2012 6:20:50 PM
GL LeagueCapper
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#13
Posted: 10/8/2012 6:22:28 PM
thank you anyways good luck to you tonight.
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#14
Posted: 10/8/2012 6:25:53 PM
I wouldnt say their rush D is not that good but Best of luck LC! 
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#15
Posted: 10/8/2012 6:26:10 PM

@LeagueCapper:  I see your point-of-view.  Again, good luck...

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#16
Posted: 10/8/2012 6:31:24 PM
Agreed completely. With you on the Jets although I got mine at +9 with my book. Still pondering if I too should get the under because if Jets are to cover, this should be a very low-scoring game.
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#17
Posted: 10/8/2012 6:48:29 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by GuardiaDeMieux:

@LeagueCapper:  I see your point-of-view.  Again, good luck...



To you as well
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#18
Posted: 10/8/2012 6:49:40 PM
Like it League BOL
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#19
Posted: 10/8/2012 6:54:08 PM
glad we agree
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Sidekickz24
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#20
Posted: 10/8/2012 7:06:12 PM
LC how many pts are considered in blowout win in the first system? 24 or more.
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#21
Posted: 10/8/2012 7:14:10 PM
Great write-up and analysis. You make a great point with the CJ example. However, I haven't seen anything out of Shonn Greene that would make me believe he is ready to run over the Texans. In my opinion, this points to a low scoring game with a lot of runs/punts with Jets covering. Your write up makes me feel confident on my under play for the first half. Again great stuff and bol
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#22
Posted: 10/8/2012 7:20:14 PM
Jets and Rex Ryan are 0-3 following a loss of 21 or more points. Look 2 years ago after patriots beat them 45-3 they came home and lost to the dolphins. They have no running game to speak of so if they run on 3 straight downs maybe they gain 5-6 yards. They have zero playmakers on the offense! I'm a life long jets fan and they will get blown out once again. 
Texans 31 Jets 13
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#23
Posted: 10/8/2012 10:54:32 PM
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#24
Posted: 10/8/2012 11:51:17 PM
Jets blew there chance at a SU win when they threw that pick in the redzone. They could have won this game easily.
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#25
Posted: 10/8/2012 11:53:05 PM
Nice job L.C!!!  Looking forward to your NBA plays!!!!!
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